Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

Tesla's market capital may have just crept past VAG last week making it the worlds 2nd most valuable car manufacturer.

Next stop Toyota ... but that'll need the share price to reach $1500. I wouldn't bet against it though!

Ark invest, who are very bullish on Tesla, suggest a market value of $1tn in the next 5-10yrs (approx $5000/share) is possible IF the robo-taxi side works. Mind blowing potential, especially if the rest don't up their game very soon.

Martyn1981

And speaking of the rest, here comes the VW Group, and an article looking at the improving TCO's going forward:

Volkswagen Group Aiming To Produce 3 Million Electric Vehicles In 2025 — How Might It Get There?

In short, I think Volkswagen’s expectation that only 25% of car buyers will want an EV in 2025 is too pessimistic, but it’s still the most ambitious forecast or plan from a conventional automaker.

One important point often lost on non-EV publications and the public at large is that these EVs are mostly cost competitive with gasoline or diesel vehicles in their classes, and they offer significantly better driver and passenger characteristics. The first part of that sentence was the next point in Diess’s presentation.

TCO = total cost of ownership. As the presentation shows, Diess agrees with me that EVs are already cost competitive and Volkswagen’s second wave of EVs will be significantly lower cost of ownership, which makes it bewildering that 75–80% of consumers would still choose the latter, but I guess Diess and crew are expecting unfortunately low awareness of this point, or strong fear of going electric nonetheless.

silverwhistle

these EVs are mostly cost competitive with gasoline or diesel vehicles in their classes,

Isn't this one of the current issues though, only part of the market has been addressed. I was reading on one of the specialist forums an article quoting the CEO of KIA and how they couldn't see that they'd be able to address the issue successfully of getting the price down to reasonable levels for the small car segment (whatever it's called these days).


The CEO talked about a minimalist model to get towards a reasonable price. Another article on a new EV from Mazda had comments that the range wasn't enough.


I still don't think that some people appreciate that others don't have the same needs as them. It makes me smile when I see comments that they're not considering such-and-such because the sound system isn't good enough or there's no heated steering wheel.etc.


So for me a reasonable range for 95%+ of my motoring (maybe hire once a year) and a Dacia type level of equipment would be fine. The only thing I'd want additionally in an EV is information on battery health and state, the ability to time charging and that's about it.

almillar

Like most people you probably imagine electrons flowing out of your solar panels into your car battery. That's not remotely correct

No, the negatively charged electrons go from the car, to the solar panel, via the inverter. That flow of -ve electrons causes a +ve charge in the opposite direction.


You also refused to recognise a grid connected consumer as an indvidual. You insist that plugging an EV (or any electric device) in, causes a strain on a power plant, whilst refusing to recognise the 'lack of strain' on the power plant caused by all the RE on the grid. Why can't you cancel these things out?

So you can't say your solar panels are powering X or y or z it's a meaningless thought

I very much disagree, and I think you're overthinking it. I do understand what you're saying, I just don't agree.
Consuming 4kWh, and producing 4kWh allows one to say they've consumed net 0kWh. I know you disagree, I know why.

There is no correlation to say your PV is powering your car it doesn't make physical sense
Your PV setup is adding to the grid AC electric field
Your electrical devises are converting the grid AC field into other things

Electricity in, electricity out. You stick your big complicated grid in the middle if you like, that's my basic premise and I'm sticking with it.

Say I buy your PV panels but they stay on your roof
I live on the other side of the country
Let's say I charge my BEV or turn on my TV

Are my PV panels (the ones on your roof) powering my BEV or my TV?

Good example. If they're your panels, you can claim whatever they produce, to power whatever you're consuming.

Irrespective of if you have Chinese panels superglued onto your roof or not

??????????????????

GreatApe

What is the purpose of BEVs?

The only reason they may have a future is to try and reduce Co2 emmissions

Well the first thing to note is the world's grid is still #1 coal #2 gas so why not concentrate on the low hanging fruit first? Especially considering that before the grid is 'fixed' BEVs actually emmit more CO2 in most the world's large grids than an efficient ICE. A buyer who decided to go for an e golf over a diesel golf in Germany will emmit more emmissions over the next decade both indirectly and directly

The next phase is when the grid is mostly green what to tackle next heating or transport?
Well it should be heating because that is much easier and also a bigger emmissions sector.
An air to air heat pump running off a mostly green grid does more to reduce Co2 than a BEV can.
My home uses 30,000 units of gas while my old car uses less than 8,000 units of petrol

If you can solve those two within 30 years you will have done a lot and it's not even certain the grid and heating can be solved within 30 years.

Germany plans to go to 65% renewables by 2030 which means it would have taken them 35 years to go from 4% renewables to 65% renewables. That's just a 1.75% conversation rate per year. It's slow and expensive and it's not even certain Germany will meet its 2030 target since they look likely to miss their 2020 target

Before those two are solved EVs don't do much to help anyway


After 2050 you can do BEVs and then if the point is to do co2 reduction you can achieve this with hybrid plug in cars. Take a Toyota Prius or a corolla hybrid. The latter costs £22k and sells at a profit. Add just 3KWh battery to that car and you have a 15 mile plug in hybrid. 15 miles sounds crap but if the country deployed millions of slow chargers (3KW) then people could charge everywhere and ideally for free. That means you'd only need to use petrol if your trip is over 15 miles and only for the portion that goes over 15 miles. Daily mileage is only 20 miles a day but that's typically over 2.5 trips a day so actual per trip average is just 8 miles. So even a very low mileage plug in hybrid can be pure EV for the vast majority of its mileage. The remainder can be covered by biofuel rather than petrol

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Good example. If they're your panels, you can claim whatever they produce, to power whatever you're consuming.

That's amusing

Let's say I buy my parents panels in South Africa from them but it stays on their roof
Is my home just outside London which has no solar panels, powered by solar?

And if I buy two ETS units for €50 then my diesel car is also no emmissions for this year...

GreatApe

Average trip in the UK is 6.7 miles
Even a very small range hybrid could electrify most trips

300 mile range BEV would electrify 100% of my annual mileage
30 mile range would electrify 99% of my annual mileage
25 mile range would electrify 93% of my annual mileage
20 mile range would electrify 85% of my annual mileage
15 mile range would electrify 78% of my annual mileage

There is obviously a strong diminishing return

30 mile range hybrid solves 99% of the 'problem' for my driving and only requires 1/10th the battery pack cost size weight of a full range 300 mile BEV

Deploy a million slow 3KW chargers
Give every plug in hybrid/BEV driver 2,500 units for free
2000 units at home(from 11pm to 7am) and 500 units at any public charger anytime
If unused they just roll over. This way almost everyone would charge at night at home

At some stage road taxes will be per mile probably around 10p a mile
This tax would cover the 'free' electricity units at home and at public spots and cover the lost fuel taxes and duties

95-99%% of miles electrified in a sensible way
We can keep using petrol or biofuels for the other 1-5%

Even with no mass charging infrastructure 30 mile range hybrid would cover almost 78% of my annual mileage. With mass charging infrastructure that becomes 99%

Martyn1981

silverwhistle wrote: »

So for me a reasonable range for 95%+ of my motoring (maybe hire once a year) and a Dacia type level of equipment would be fine. The only thing I'd want additionally in an EV is information on battery health and state, the ability to time charging and that's about it.

In that case, might I be able to interest you in a FUV from Arcimoto? Not only is it small, compact, and tons of torque, but according to the Vloggers who've driven it around New York, it's faster and of course easier to get about and park than an 'ordinary' car. And the Deliverator version has (I believe) enormous potential.

And yes, if this seems a tad 'tongue-in-cheek', then you've caught me, I've bought some shares in them too.

Martyn1981

Mud field, to factory, to 1,000 BEV's pw ..... in approx one year ..... show offs!

Tesla Says Shanghai Gigafactory Already Producing 1,000 Model 3s Per Week

Earlier today, Tesla hosted the first vehicle delivery event at its Shanghai Gigafactory, delivering a small number of Shanghai-made Model 3s to employees. At the event, Tesla China general manager Wang Hao said that 1,000 Model 3s are already being produced each week, with 280 units per day having been demonstrated. This production level comes less than 12 months since Tesla broke ground on the Shanghai Gigafactory site.

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Mud field, to factory, to 1,000 BEV's pw ..... in approx one year ..... show offs!

China wants to dominate BEV production and they're doing a better job than VW & other legacy western manufacturers.