Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

NigeWick

ABrass wrote: »

In the past Musk has said that he doesn't see the point in building a smaller car than the model 3 as autonomous driving will allow lower transport costs and make it pointless.

I hadn't thought of that. I should have, as I am looking forward to Transport as a Service way before the time my current BEV is worn out.

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

In the past Musk has said that he doesn't see the point in building a smaller car than the model 3 as autonomous driving will allow lower transport costs and make it pointless.

He might change his mind, but a supermini Tesla is going to be a good few years away (the model Y is heavily based on the 3 and that is taking about three years from first hints to hitting production) and I don't think they're interested in competing at the budget end or in the short range market.

There is a premium small car segment

Like the Audi Q2 or A3 sportsback for £18-19k
Merc A Class or BMW 1 Series £20-22k

A model 3 is nowhere near that segment in price point
Sure if self drive works it may allow a £40k model 3 to be more affordable if people rent out their car part time but how many people who have £40-60k for a car would want to rent it out? And will self drive arrive soon I was very confident of this but I think it will take longer than I imagined

Plus if self drive taxis do come out why do you need a model 3 class vehicles when a smaller car like the ones mentioned above in self drive BEV mode would be just as suitable but smaller and cheaper

GreatApe

There would be a bigger market and more profit to be had in a Cheaper Tesla hybrid

50 mile battery 500 mile petrol £30,000 price point model 3 clone
40 mile battery 400 mile petrol £25,000 price point for a smaller A class / 1 series sized
30 mile battery 300 mile petrol £20,000 price for a smaller still Fiesta class

Average UK daily mileage is 20 miles so the above would be electric most of their annual miles

Add a 500wp solar panel (this shouldn't add more than £500 cost) to these and you get upto 2,000 miles per year free in the UK from solar

Or upto 5,000 miles per year free in a sunny country and most the world's population live in sunny locations

silverwhistle

JKenH wrote: »

Unfortunately you will not be able to see this as you have me on ignore but, in case any one else is interested, at 3.29 am on 9th December when Agile went almost 5p negative emissions were still surprisingly 100g/kWh. Coal was contributing 3.39%.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2019-12-09&&_k=ylmq95

Wrong again. I onl;y have one person on ignore, but do carry on making wrong assumptions..

ABrass

I do, but the reason we still had coal on the grid is that it can't be cut out quickly. It's safer and cheaper to drop other more flexible sources. But coals a bit boring these days, economics have killed it, it's corpse just hasn't stopped smoking yet.

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

But coals a bit boring these days, economics have killed it, it's corpse just hasn't stopped smoking yet.

The power of eco chambers

Reality is that Coal is still by a long way the world's #1 source of electricity and 2018 was the highest ever coal consumption year

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

I do, but the reason we still had coal on the grid is that it can't be cut out quickly. It's safer and cheaper to drop other more flexible sources. But coals a bit boring these days, economics have killed it, it's corpse just hasn't stopped smoking yet.

:rotfl:

Nice comment. Another description I like, is that it's already dead and buried, so we should stop digging it up, just to cremate it.

almillar

If you use an EV the average emmissions of the grid increase

Replace 'EV' with 'any electrical device' and we agree. But yes, replacing your ICE, with an EV, means less petrol used, more electricity used.

If you take two different earth's.
One where you use an EV for 10,000 miles that year
And one where you decide to walk everywhere for that year

The EV earth has higher emmissions

Agreed. But we're comparing EVs with ICEs, not walking.

The mistake many make I think including you was not to realise that they were using an incorrect version of #2 they were looking at average grid emmissions without taking into account their BEVs not only do that but also increase grid emmissions per unit

And your mistake you continue to ignore the overnight charging EVs that can help to balance the grid, and use all that excess wind power. You assume people are always using peak electric.

The answer is yes the car is responsible for this 3,783 grams or 378.3 grams per kWh
What is the emmissions from CCGTs at a power station? 378.3 grams/kWh
The two match exactly

Now subtract the amount of CO2 the petrol car would have emitted!!

(unless you take into account that plugging them in increases grid emmissions per kWh too)]

I'm perfectly happy with this version. Get to the end of the year, production from various sources changes, consumption changes. More EVs will mean more electric consumed. Install RE to keep up.

This should clear it up for everyone if you can follow basic math
Where people go wrong is assume there is no increase in grid emmissions if they plug in their BEVs
But there is, in this example by 0.00009475 grams/kWh

Some more basic maths - subtract the ICE journey's emissions off that!

I'd say you should view the car as 100% filled up by the generator

Of course, but your home is 100% solar! That's 4kW the grid isn't supplying to you!

#1 is just wrong and is the Marty School of thinking
#2 & #3 both lead to the same number of emmissions
Only #3 just takes more brain power and calculations it's easy to do in this example but more difficult on larger grids where you have to use many decemal points to calculate it correctly

I can tell you have neither an EV nor solar panels. You missed one.

#4 Plug your car in when it is sunny and you (within your household) have excess solar production. Make your EV charge more slowly if necessary, or of course, have a charger (Zappi) that sorts it all out for you.


silverwhistle:

Not sure where this leaves the arguments about marginal costs, although I'll leave almillar (thanks!) to respond to any of the usual obfuscation..

This is exactly the stuff that I'm talking about, that GreatApe refuses to take into account. You're putting a load on the grid, wind turbines won't spin faster, solar doesn't take more sunlight, so you're putting a strain on whatever turbines are being powered. For now, you're an exception to the rule, but the 'smart grid' will incentivise us to use the cheap, off peak, coincidentally also higher % renewable energy off peak. It'll be cheaper for us to use and as Martyn and others have pointed out, lots of people charge their cars at home, relatevely slowly (7kW or less) overnight. If these people were on a smart meter and off peak tariff, they'd save money (and emissions) without changing their behaviour at all.
GreatApe prefers to concentrate the Tesla Owners Club meeting up for breakfast (peak) at a motorway service station and all plugging into Superchargers at the same time. Like a queue at the petrol station!

What this shows is the UK should be putting more effort into the other 82% of emmissions
Heating is both easy and hard but that should be the aim for the 2020s
A mix of heat pumps and resistance heaters with perhaps the government deciding to install for 'free' a heat pump on every suitable social property

AGREED!

Martyn:

I wonder if they could do that and be profitable?

Next ponder would be to go a bit smaller again, and perhaps 150 mile range, and aim for mid to low £20k's?

Tesla is American, and their cars are very, well, American. Big sedans. Model 3 is relatively big here, but small in America.
In terms of smaller profitable cars, I think the masses won't accept anything with less than a 200 mile, real range. I think the new Zoe, and Peugeot 208, and I guess Corsa, with 50kWh, are the sweet spot for range. What price can a 50kWh supermini be made for? Americans don't really do superminis.

GreatApe:

There is a premium small car segment

Like the Audi Q2 or A3 sportsback for £18-19k
Merc A Class or BMW 1 Series £20-22k

Where did you get these prices from?!!

The 1 Series for example is 'from £24,430'.
The A Class is 'from £23,710'
The A3 is 'from £22,725'
The Q2 is 'from £22,720'

Really makes me doubt all your other numbers.

Remember if we're comparing cars, they need to be the same specs.

The power of eco chambers
Reality is that Coal is still by a long way the world's #1 source of electricity and 2018 was the highest ever coal consumption year

You're in your own USA/China/Australia/Poland echo chamber. Reminder, we're in the UK.
UK Coal production:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMOh4erXkAA3PKi.png

The green bits are 0% coal production. What will this look like in 2020, and beyond?

silverwhistle

silverwhistle wrote: »

Wrong again. I onl;y have one person on ignore, but do carry on making wrong assumptions..

Anyway Ken, to deal with your point about CO2, I find that surprising, but of course that is changing all the time. As others have pointed out coal is only still there to deal with peaks and presumably there is an element of coal fired output as part of the spinning reserve.



Next year Fiddler's Ferry will close, which is good as I have a wodge of SSE shares and the plant is losing £40m a year.


So no, I only have one person on ignore but I do have a problem with how uncritical, nay, supportive you have been of him. My opinion of said poster is shared by a number of people, and it seems it is only almillar who still engages with him. Even the latter poster is beginning to realise how many made up figures and stream of consciousness arguments are contained in his posts...

silverwhistle

almillar wrote: »

Replace 'EV' with 'any electrical device' and we agree. But yes, replacing your ICE, with an EV, means less petrol used, more electricity used.

Except, of course, less electricity used in refining the petrol..