Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

Volkswagen ID.2 electric supermini set for 2023 launch

Volkswagen has revealed plans to expand its new pure-electric ID. range with a smaller entry-level model. The new car, expected to be called the ID.2 and a similar size to the Volkswagen Polo, will make use of its platform to offer as much space as a bigger hatchback, such as a Ford Focus. It may have a price tag of less than £20,000.

https://www.carbuyer.co.uk/news/167811/volkswagen-id2-electric-supermini-set-for-2023-launch

JKenH

shinytop said:

Martyn1981 said:

German BEV sales stay above 10% for July and YTD, so there's no going back now.

Germany’s Plugin EV Share More Than Doubles To 23.5% In July – Combustion Share At Record Low

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, and the world’s 4th largest, saw plugin electric vehicle market share more than double year-on-year to 23.5% share in July 2021. Old-school combustion powertrains fell to a record low of 59.2%, with diesels under 20%. Overall auto volumes in July were down almost 30% compared to the pre-COVID July 2019 result.

July’s combined plugin result of 23.5% consisted of 10.8% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 12.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), a ratio roughly in line with recent months. The year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 22.6% (10.7% BEV, 11.9% PHEV), up from 8.51% at this point in 2020.

Non-electric-assist combustion powertrains fell to their lowest ever share, at 59.2% (from 77.5% YOY), with diesels doing particularly badly at 19.7% (from 28.4% YOY):

Good to see a small car at the top.  VW seem to have snuck up on the inside.  Should Tesla be worried?

Actually BEV registrations have been pretty flat for the last 6 months.  And why the blip in December?

Wow, so Volkswagen sales of pure EVs were 2.5 times Tesla’s for the first 6 months of this year.

shinytop

True, but the market for Tesla's class/price is smaller than VWs.  However I do think Tesla will struggle against VW and others in Europe.  

QrizB

shinytop said:

True, but the market for Tesla's class/price is smaller than VWs.  However I do think Tesla will struggle against VW and others in Europe.  

I was thinking the same. Tesla's current model range might align with the US car market but it's more upscale than Europe's.

The Model 3 is D-segment (Passat, Mondeo, Insignia) but the bulk of European car sales are B- and C-segment (Polo & Golf, Fiesta and Focus, Corsa and Astra).

Solarchaser

Really the model 3 is competing with BMW 3, merc c and audi a4 rather than mondao,  insignia etc. And the 3 is (so far) teslas cheapest offering at still over £40k, so of course it will be overtaken by smaller ev's with a smaller price tag.

Even the smaller tesla coming out will imo be more expensive than the mini's and superminis offered by more commonly known market names.

I guess it's a similar deal to merc a class and BMW 1 series being more expensive than the fiesta/focus of the same size. 

These la de da brands eh?

JKenH

QrizB said:

shinytop said:

True, but the market for Tesla's class/price is smaller than VWs.  However I do think Tesla will struggle against VW and others in Europe.  

I was thinking the same. Tesla's current model range might align with the US car market but it's more upscale than Europe's.

The Model 3 is D-segment (Passat, Mondeo, Insignia) but the bulk of European car sales are B- and C-segment (Polo & Golf, Fiesta and Focus, Corsa and Astra).

I suspect also that availability might have something to do with it. When I bought my current Leaf I was also considering a TM3 or a Kia e-Niro but the waiting list at that time  was several months. The ID3 had an even longer waiting list. I was keen to get an EV with a bit more range than my old 30kwh Leaf ASAP and the pricing and availability was what swung it for me at the time. 

One other factor was local dealership support. We are lucky we have a Kia dealer locally so in a straight choice between Tesla and Kia, I would have gone for the e-Niro. (I’m not sure I would have had the patience to deal with a Tesla service centre.)

I don’t think you can discount brand loyalty particularly with the older generation and perhaps as more traditional drivers migrate to EVs we might see the big legacy manufacturers picking up more sales at the expense of Tesla. I’m not sure GM has a credible EV product at the moment but the Ford Mach-e is selling very well. If and when Toyota do make an EV I am sure it will sell like hot cakes. 

What frustrates me most with all the new EVs being launched is that so many manufacturers are going out of their way to make them look different/futuristic just for the sake of it when some of us just want an EV that looks like a proper car. A pure electric version of the Golf would appeal to me more than the ID3. (Having said that I still love the clean design of the  TM3.) Maybe the younger market is being targeted as they are more environmentally aware and aligned with the move to electric. Again as more older buyers (the ones who currently are saying never) are forced to consider EVs they will look to the brands they know. 

shinytop

Solarchaser said:

Really the model 3 is competing with BMW 3, merc c and audi a4 rather than mondao,  insignia etc. And the 3 is (so far) teslas cheapest offering at still over £40k, so of course it will be overtaken by smaller ev's with a smaller price tag.

Even the smaller tesla coming out will imo be more expensive than the mini's and superminis offered by more commonly known market names.

I guess it's a similar deal to merc a class and BMW 1 series being more expensive than the fiesta/focus of the same size. 

These la de da brands eh?

I suppose the real test will be whether buyers are willing to pay a premium for a Tesla over a similar offerings from VW, Nissan or whoever.  BMW, Audi, etc. managed to convince people so who knows?

Martyn1981

Here's a good graphical representation of what the 'Osborne effect' could be on car sales this decade. It shows a massive reduction in total sales heading towards mid decade, and then taking the rest of the decade to recover.

The good news is that if something along these lines does happen, and it's hard to imagine that it won't to some degree as the worries of owning a stranded asset ICEV grow, then even if BEV supply can't keep up with demand, then at least the total ICEV stock won't grow as much as it otherwise would/could, with Ford and GM hoping to sell 50%+ ICEV in 2030, and Toyota targeting 15% BEV's in 2030.

Virtuous Cycles Of Technology Adoption

What creates the “S” curve of technology adoption? It is a virtuous cycle. Positive change creates more change. The opposite is also true — a vicious cycle speeds the rapid decline of outdated technology. In a new report, Carbon Tracker identifies 7 of these paired cycles which are creating “S” curves and speeding us toward the future. Spiraling Disruption.

Sam Butler–Sloss and the Carbon Tracker team have been able to communicate really big (global) ideas simply. The full report can be found here.

EVandPV

Tesla is reportedly going to buy BYD’s new ‘blade batteries’ in an unlikely partnership

Tesla is said to have entered into an agreement to buy BYD’s new “blade batteries” in a partnership that not many people would have predicted.

While undergoing nail penetration tests, the Blade Battery emitted neither smoke nor fire after being penetrated, and its surface temperature only reached 30 to 60°C. Under the same conditions, a ternary lithium battery exceeded 500°C and violently burned, and while a conventional lithium iron phosphate block battery did not openly emit flames or smoke, its surface temperature reached dangerous temperatures of 200 to 400°C. This implies that EVs equipped with the Blade Battery would be far less susceptible to catching fire – even when they are severely damaged.

https://electrek-co.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/electrek.co/2021/08/05/tesla-buy-byd-blade-batteries/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://electrek.co/2021/08/05/tesla-buy-byd-blade-batteries/

Martyn1981

EVandPV said:

Tesla is reportedly going to buy BYD’s new ‘blade batteries’ in an unlikely partnership

Tesla is said to have entered into an agreement to buy BYD’s new “blade batteries” in a partnership that not many people would have predicted.

While undergoing nail penetration tests, the Blade Battery emitted neither smoke nor fire after being penetrated, and its surface temperature only reached 30 to 60°C. Under the same conditions, a ternary lithium battery exceeded 500°C and violently burned, and while a conventional lithium iron phosphate block battery did not openly emit flames or smoke, its surface temperature reached dangerous temperatures of 200 to 400°C. This implies that EVs equipped with the Blade Battery would be far less susceptible to catching fire – even when they are severely damaged.

https://electrek-co.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/electrek.co/2021/08/05/tesla-buy-byd-blade-batteries/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://electrek.co/2021/08/05/tesla-buy-byd-blade-batteries/

I saw this part near the end:

Yesterday, we reported that people should temper their expectations about Tesla’s upcoming $25,000 electric vehicle as rumors are stating that it could go into production early next year.

We noted that Tesla is going to need a lot of cheap battery cells to make that happen. Maybe those cells could be it, but that’s just speculation at this point.

and while of course it's all extreme conjecture, fuelled by rumour on rumour, Cleantechnica are guessing similar:

RUMOR: Chinese Made Tesla “Model 2” Will Use BYD Blade Battery

The cells used in the US-made Tesla Model 3 have an energy density of 260 Wh/kg compared to the 160 Wh/kg for the Blade battery, but the LFP cells supplied by CATL for Chinese made Teslas only have an energy density of 125 Wh/kg, so the BYD product is superior in that respect.

But from a marketing point of view, in a world where fossil fuel financed FUD about electric cars is everywhere, being able to reassure customers that their cars are not going to catch fire in the middle of the night and burn the house down while they sleep is a big deal. BYD says the blade battery will last 3000 charging cycles — enough for about 1.2 million kilometers of driving. Cross off another big concern for some EV shoppers.