Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Grumpy_chap

Heedtheadvice said:

I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

I am not sure what these figures prove (or don't prove) - certainly I cannot see a link to establishing a variance in supply-constraint (or not) between ICE and PHEV/EV cars.

The Focus is consistently right near the top of new car sales lists.  The Ionic is generally not.  Plus, the figure for the Ionic (all types) includes ICE (hybrid) so tells us nothing about how many of those used cars offered for sale are PHEV / EV.

The biggest surprise I took from that was <400 (or <300 post-2016) Focii across the Ford network.  Seems a remarkably low number to me.

JKenH said:

Actually your example tends to support my argument. Given that only 13 people in 1000 (1.3%) are looking for an electric car and there are 80 available those buyers are less constrained than the remaining 987 squabbling over 362 cars. 

I can’t prove a negative, i.e. that there are no constraints on used electric car supply but I suspect that the used electric car market is less constrained than the new EV market. If new EVs were in plentiful supply they would probably sell even more and the gulf between new and used EV sales would widen further. 

That example from @Heedtheadvice seems to do little to to support (or oppose) your argument as the numbers simply don't give a comparison between a PHEV / EV and comparable ICE.

The report simply stated the number of vehicles purchased, not how many people were looking for a used EV.  How and where could that data even be collated about what used cars people are looking for.

Your final paragraph seems rather conflated.  You say used EV market is not constrained, but then that the new EV market is constrained.  Remember, in the main, for used EV's to be on the market, we are taking about cars released from the very very low market share that new EV's held until even as recently as 2 years ago.

In the absence of other factors, I would take a gut feel that the used EV market is constrained by supply.  Yet, I counter that with the high prices of EV's (new and used) against comparable ICE cars reducing demand.  Then, the high residual values of used EV's (indicates constrained market) might have the effect of reducing demand for used as it is less of a leap to go to a new EV, so why wouldn't you?  Furthermore, the used car buyer is rather more price sensitive than the new car buyer - if money was not a constraint, who wouldn't buy new?  The financially constrained used car buyer will be more likely to take the advantage of the reduced capital of an ICE, so that works to reduce demand for used EV.  Most people buying a used car simply look at the car they can afford to buy and do not undertake a full CAPEX / OPEX / WLC assessment.

shinytop

Grumpy_chap said:

Heedtheadvice said:

I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

I am not sure what these figures prove (or don't prove) - certainly I cannot see a link to establishing a variance in supply-constraint (or not) between ICE and PHEV/EV cars.

The Focus is consistently right near the top of new car sales lists.  The Ionic is generally not.  Plus, the figure for the Ionic (all types) includes ICE (hybrid) so tells us nothing about how many of those used cars offered for sale are PHEV / EV.

The biggest surprise I took from that was <400 (or <300 post-2016) Focii across the Ford network.  Seems a remarkably low number to me.

JKenH said:

Actually your example tends to support my argument. Given that only 13 people in 1000 (1.3%) are looking for an electric car and there are 80 available those buyers are less constrained than the remaining 987 squabbling over 362 cars. 

I can’t prove a negative, i.e. that there are no constraints on used electric car supply but I suspect that the used electric car market is less constrained than the new EV market. If new EVs were in plentiful supply they would probably sell even more and the gulf between new and used EV sales would widen further. 

That example from @Heedtheadvice seems to do little to to support (or oppose) your argument as the numbers simply don't give a comparison between a PHEV / EV and comparable ICE.

The report simply stated the number of vehicles purchased, not how many people were looking for a used EV.  How and where could that data even be collated about what used cars people are looking for.

Your final paragraph seems rather conflated.  You say used EV market is not constrained, but then that the new EV market is constrained.  Remember, in the main, for used EV's to be on the market, we are taking about cars released from the very very low market share that new EV's held until even as recently as 2 years ago.

In the absence of other factors, I would take a gut feel that the used EV market is constrained by supply.  Yet, I counter that with the high prices of EV's (new and used) against comparable ICE cars reducing demand.  Then, the high residual values of used EV's (indicates constrained market) might have the effect of reducing demand for used as it is less of a leap to go to a new EV, so why wouldn't you?  Furthermore, the used car buyer is rather more price sensitive than the new car buyer - if money was not a constraint, who wouldn't buy new?  The financially constrained used car buyer will be more likely to take the advantage of the reduced capital of an ICE, so that works to reduce demand for used EV.  Most people buying a used car simply look at the car they can afford to buy and do not undertake a full CAPEX / OPEX / WLC assessment.

This.  Also, most people buying a used car are using their own, hard-earned saved or borrowed money and are taking the risk on reliability, longevity and residuals.  A 3 year old ICE car is perceived as a safe bet; not so much for a similar (and probably more expensive) BEV.  People are a lot more cautious with their own money.  

ABrass

JKenH said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Heedtheadvice said:

ABrass is quite correct.

There are a huge number of ICE second hand cars available but no where near as many electric, plugin or pure hybrids available. You cannot compare apples and oranges.

I am not suggesting this is fully representative of the whole market but I recently changed from ICE (Focus hatch) to PHEV (Ionic) so just as an example I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

Just a small sample of the market but very indicative of typical availability of cars for those who want nearly new with dealership and manufacturer backup.

I agree prices may adjust but is that not a representation of supply and demand pimarily .....or also the manufacturers backing of higher/older cars distorting the market in an attempt to reduce the better warranty from the likes of Hyundai, Kia, Toyota etc. to get rid of ICE stock as the rest try and ramp up electric production?

Actually your example tends to support my argument. Given that only 13 people in 1000 (1.3%) are looking for an electric car and there are 80 available those buyers are less constrained than the remaining 987 squabbling over 362 cars. 

I can’t prove a negative, i.e. that there are no constraints on used electric car supply but I suspect that the used electric car market is less constrained than the new EV market. If new EVs were in plentiful supply they would probably sell even more and the gulf between new and used EV sales would widen further. 

1.3% of cars bought were EVs, no one knows how many were looking for them but couldn't find one because supply is so limited.

True, but the same could be said for new EVs or used ICEvs where it is well documented that used prices have been rising quite dramatically because of shortage of supply. I don’t recall seeing many (any) articles about short supply of used EVs. 

Isn't it so obvious it's not worth printing? I believe someone had a link saying the average registration year of EVs being sold second hand was 2015. If so these cars are being sold from a pool of around 30,000 (number of PEVs sold in 2015).

The second hand market is far far larger in sales than the new market. 6.8 million last year to 1.6 million. It makes sense, a car can only be sold new once but can be sold many more times after that.

At the end of 2019 there were around 350,000 PEVs registered. In 2020 there were 180,000 new PEVs sold. It's pretty obvious that PEV second hand sales volumes must be low proportionally as the average age of the fleet is so young.

Martyn1981

Yeah, that's what I was getting at when I pointed out PEV's make up less than 2% of the UK fleet. The % of PEV's in new car sales is currently meaningless for the s/h market, not only are new cars less likely to be resold (yet), but the distribution of PEV's to age is heavily weighted towards younger cars, so far. In fact that distribution will continue for probably 10-15 more years, as the sales of new PEV's will be an ever larger % of new sales, staying ahead of the % of the fleet as a whole.

Just for fun, if all of those 30,000 2015 PEV's were sold in 2021, out of the 2.2m cars that have changed hands s/h, then the percentage would be (30k/2.2m) x100 = 1.36%.

JKenH

We are not going to agree on this. I may be right, I may be wrong. 

My view is, if the sales of new EVs at 17% of the market are driven by genuine personal demand to drive an electric vehicle then I would expect to see sales of used EVs higher than 1.3% of the used car market. The conclusion I put forward is that used EV sales are lagging new EV sales by several years, primarily because the new EV sales market is distorted by financial incentives not available/applicable to buyers of used EVs.

The opposing views (if I have understood them correctly) are 

a) that used EV sales are supply constrained at 1.3% or that
b) 1.3% is the level of used sales we might expect to see given the total number of EVs on the road.


I could go on arguing but we have made our points so shall we leave it there and just agree to disagree?

Edited at 11.23 to condense.

ABrass

JKenH said:

We are not going to agree on this. I may be right, I may be wrong. 

My view is, if the sales of new EVs at 17% of the market are driven by genuine personal demand to drive an electric vehicle then I would expect to see sales of used EVs higher than 1.3% of the used car market. The conclusion I put forward is that used EV sales are lagging new EV sales by several years, primarily because the new EV sales market is distorted by financial incentives not available/applicable to buyers of used EVs.

My view is that EV sales at 1.3% are slower than we should expect if the 17% of new car sales taken by electric vehicles is genuinely representative of a personal trend to EV adoption. I believe that the used sales figures of 1.3% reflects actual current demand for used EVs whereas the opposing views (if I have understood them correctly) are
a) that used EV sales are supply constrained at 1.3% or that
b) 1.3% is the level of used sales we might expect to see given the total number of EVs on the road.

I could go on arguing but we have made our points so shall we leave it there and just agree to disagree?

You're right, we're not going to agree. Because you keep ignoring the fact that there aren't enough second hand cars to buy.

Given there's a ratio of around 4:1 of second hand sales to new sales then in 2019 each and every EV on the road would have to have been sold twice to get that same ratio.

At the same time there were around 33 million ICEs on the road in 2019. To get the 6.5 million second hand sales then less than 1 in 5 had to be sold that year.

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

My view is, if the sales of new EVs at 17% of the market are driven by genuine personal demand to drive an electric vehicle then I would expect to see sales of used EVs higher than 1.3% of the used car market. The conclusion I put forward is that used EV sales are lagging new EV sales by several years, primarily because the new EV sales market is distorted by financial incentives not available/applicable to buyers of used EVs.

Whether for incentives or otherwise, the sales of new EVs are rising at an exponential rate.

The new car EV sales may be 17% in 2021.

But, sales of used, say 2019, EV cannot exceed the percentage of new EV sales in 2019.  That was much lower than 17%.

JKenH

Rather than argue my point over and over I will just attach this article.  No comment by me. Please feel free to continue the argument among yourselves. 

https://www.driving.co.uk/news/business/nearly-new-electric-cars-cost-run-petrol-diesel/

ABrass

JKenH said:

Rather than argue my point over and over I will just attach this article.  No comment by me. Please feel free to continue the argument among yourselves. 

https://www.driving.co.uk/news/business/nearly-new-electric-cars-cost-run-petrol-diesel/

All based on the assumption that supply outstripps demand. Since it doesn't, the entire assumption falls down.

Supply being greater than demand has been true for ICEs for probably a hundred years. EVs have always been supply limited.

JKenH

Apparently Up To 15 Percent Of All Used Cars For Sale In UK Are EVs

https://insideevs.com/news/460466/15-percent-used-cars-uk-are-evs/

Used electric car supply is quite significantly exceeding demand, says Auto Trader

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-electric-car-supply-is-quite-significantly-exceeding-demand-says-auto-trader/221840