Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

michaels

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Today's news talking down the EV revolution:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58150025

I know EV is not the first subject of the article, but a sub-heading that "Electric Uptake Slow" and then continuing that only 1.3% of used cars sold were EV or PHEV is completely ridiculous.  Obviously, EV / PHEV can only be sold as used cars if they exist in the fleet to be sold - take up can only grow with new cars.  In fact, how does 1.3% of used cars sold being EV / PHEV relate to the share of EV / PHEV against the total fleet?

If you go to the SMMT site where the BBC information probably came from you will see that 

Popularity of used plug-in vehicles soared as transactions increased 351.4% in Q2, although equal to only 1.3% of the used car market.

On the same page you will see 

Nevertheless, at 1.3% of market share, the plug-in used car market is not yet seeing the acceleration of uptake as has been seen in the new car market with the number of used plug-ins changing hands in Q2 2021 comparable with the number of new plug-ins bought in Q3 2015.3 The scale of the challenge to transition the entire used car parc away from traditional fuels remains significant.

It would seem that demand for secondhand plug ins is therefore lagging several years behind demand for new EVs, possibly because the sale of new EVs is being led by companies and the growth of salary sacrifice schemes (see my earlier post). I imagine also the cost to lease a new EV is not significantly greater than the cost of a PCP on a used EV and of course new EVs generally have bigger batteries than old ones so are more desirable to those who want to move to EVs but might have concerns about range. 

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/08/best-ever-second-quarter-for-used-car-market-as-nation-emerges-from-lockdown/

I don't really follow your argument here, surely the share of BEV in second hand markets will pretty much match their share in the outstanding stock of vehicles of the relevant age?  If you were to show that prices for second hand bevs had fallen relative to second hand ICE vehicles then you would have a point.  Generally your arguments do make economic/numerical sense so I fear I may be missing something in my understanding of the point you are trying to make?

ABrass

Comparing percentage sold is pointless. You can only resell as many cars as there were bought in the first place. The numbers of EVs sold in 2015 isn't news.

Seeing if people keep their EVs longer than ICE is interesting.
Seeing if the EVs sell faster or slower is interesting.
Seeing if they hold more or less value is interesting.

The cars being sold now aren't from fleets, because the fleet buyers have only been buying EVs in bulk since the tax changes. I believe they started April 2020, so nowhere near the 2-3 years a fleet vehicle gets.

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Yeah, looking at the UK fleet as a whole, it looks like PEV's represent around 2%, but of course the majority of those sales will be in the last 3yrs, so less likely to have hit the 2nd hand market, so 1.3% doesn't sound odd to me at all, as you note?

I understand that the sales of used cars includes the sales of pre-reg / demo cars and I would imagine that these types of cars are going to be ICE and not EV given the EV's can be sold in any case and do not require the same kind of discounting / distortion to show sales figures.

Heedtheadvice

Just watched the Guy Martin programme last night about his attempt to break the world record for an electric vehicle over the standing quarter mile. He failed.

But as is typical of Guy (on the face of it) he cobbles together a group of experts to support what seem whacky ideas and does these sort of things fast on a low budget.

Watch the prog to see why he failed. Put up an excellent showing against a ICE supercar!

He also took an Ionic 5 for a long run and from that, even being a petrol head (or at least a more traditional engineer) came up with some great conclusions. It's all about infrastructure!!

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Today's news talking down the EV revolution:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58150025

I know EV is not the first subject of the article, but a sub-heading that "Electric Uptake Slow" and then continuing that only 1.3% of used cars sold were EV or PHEV is completely ridiculous.  Obviously, EV / PHEV can only be sold as used cars if they exist in the fleet to be sold - take up can only grow with new cars.  In fact, how does 1.3% of used cars sold being EV / PHEV relate to the share of EV / PHEV against the total fleet?

If you go to the SMMT site where the BBC information probably came from you will see that 

Popularity of used plug-in vehicles soared as transactions increased 351.4% in Q2, although equal to only 1.3% of the used car market.

On the same page you will see 

Nevertheless, at 1.3% of market share, the plug-in used car market is not yet seeing the acceleration of uptake as has been seen in the new car market with the number of used plug-ins changing hands in Q2 2021 comparable with the number of new plug-ins bought in Q3 2015.3 The scale of the challenge to transition the entire used car parc away from traditional fuels remains significant.

It would seem that demand for secondhand plug ins is therefore lagging several years behind demand for new EVs, possibly because the sale of new EVs is being led by companies and the growth of salary sacrifice schemes (see my earlier post). I imagine also the cost to lease a new EV is not significantly greater than the cost of a PCP on a used EV and of course new EVs generally have bigger batteries than old ones so are more desirable to those who want to move to EVs but might have concerns about range. 

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/08/best-ever-second-quarter-for-used-car-market-as-nation-emerges-from-lockdown/

I don't really follow your argument here, surely the share of BEV in second hand markets will pretty much match their share in the outstanding stock of vehicles of the relevant age?  If you were to show that prices for second hand bevs had fallen relative to second hand ICE vehicles then you would have a point.  Generally your arguments do make economic/numerical sense so I fear I may be missing something in my understanding of the point you are trying to make?

17% of new car sales are electric but only 1.3% of those buying a used car want to buy an EV. There is no shortage of used EVs on eBay or Autotrader so supply is not the limiting factor. It is generally private buyers in the used car market and there simply is a lack of demand at the prices at which used EVs are currently available. 

The new market is different, dominated as I have said by company purchases, salary sacrifice schemes, tax incentives and attractive finance deals and incentives from manufacturers. The government has put numerous measures in place to encourage the purchase of new EVs rather than new ICEVs, i.e. by making them more attractive financially. In simple terms they have set out to distort the market to encourage a move away from ICEVs and have succeeded.

If you look at my posts from a couple of days ago you will see how low EVs are in the popularity rankings compared to old favourites like the Golf and Fiesta yet they punch above their weight in terms of new sales.

New EVs which might have been perceived as too expensive actually turn out cheaper than ICEs for companies and those on salary sacrifice schemes. So more new EVs are purchased than might be if these measures were not in place. Consequently we have seen a massive leap here and in Germany in new EV sales. It is not that people find them more desirable, they are simply being bribed to buy them. 

There are no such measures in place to influence/distort the used car market so we are seeing there a more accurate representation of how the private buyer perceives the value of EVs relative to ICEVs. Few will be bought at current prices and prices will need to adjust.  

ABrass

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Today's news talking down the EV revolution:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58150025

I know EV is not the first subject of the article, but a sub-heading that "Electric Uptake Slow" and then continuing that only 1.3% of used cars sold were EV or PHEV is completely ridiculous.  Obviously, EV / PHEV can only be sold as used cars if they exist in the fleet to be sold - take up can only grow with new cars.  In fact, how does 1.3% of used cars sold being EV / PHEV relate to the share of EV / PHEV against the total fleet?

If you go to the SMMT site where the BBC information probably came from you will see that 

Popularity of used plug-in vehicles soared as transactions increased 351.4% in Q2, although equal to only 1.3% of the used car market.

On the same page you will see 

Nevertheless, at 1.3% of market share, the plug-in used car market is not yet seeing the acceleration of uptake as has been seen in the new car market with the number of used plug-ins changing hands in Q2 2021 comparable with the number of new plug-ins bought in Q3 2015.3 The scale of the challenge to transition the entire used car parc away from traditional fuels remains significant.

It would seem that demand for secondhand plug ins is therefore lagging several years behind demand for new EVs, possibly because the sale of new EVs is being led by companies and the growth of salary sacrifice schemes (see my earlier post). I imagine also the cost to lease a new EV is not significantly greater than the cost of a PCP on a used EV and of course new EVs generally have bigger batteries than old ones so are more desirable to those who want to move to EVs but might have concerns about range. 

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/08/best-ever-second-quarter-for-used-car-market-as-nation-emerges-from-lockdown/

I don't really follow your argument here, surely the share of BEV in second hand markets will pretty much match their share in the outstanding stock of vehicles of the relevant age?  If you were to show that prices for second hand bevs had fallen relative to second hand ICE vehicles then you would have a point.  Generally your arguments do make economic/numerical sense so I fear I may be missing something in my understanding of the point you are trying to make?

17% of new car sales are electric but only 1.3% of those buying a used car want to buy an EV. There is no shortage of used EVs on eBay or Autotrader so supply is not the limiting factor. It is generally private buyers in the used car market and there simply is a lack of demand at the prices at which used EVs are currently available. 

The new market is different, dominated as I have said by company purchases, salary sacrifice schemes, tax incentives and attractive finance deals and incentives from manufacturers. The government has put numerous measures in place to encourage the purchase of new EVs rather than new ICEVs, i.e. by making them more attractive financially. In simple terms they have set out to distort the market to encourage a move away from ICEVs and have succeeded.

If you look at my posts from a couple of days ago you will see how low EVs are in the popularity rankings compared to old favourites like the Golf and Fiesta yet they punch above their weight in terms of new sales.

New EVs which might have been perceived as too expensive actually turn out cheaper than ICEs for companies and those on salary sacrifice schemes. So more new EVs are purchased than might be if these measures were not in place. Consequently we have seen a massive leap here and in Germany in new EV sales. It is not that people find them more desirable, they are simply being bribed to buy them. 

There are no such measures in place to influence/distort the used car market so we are seeing there a more accurate representation of how the private buyer perceives the value of EVs relative to ICEVs. Few will be bought at current prices and prices will need to adjust.  

You'd have to demonstrate that supply isn't constrained for any of that to be meaningful. But it is constrained.

It's too complicated a question to simplify down to one single metric and trying to do so is pointless.

Heedtheadvice

ABrass is quite correct.

There are a huge number of ICE second hand cars available but no where near as many electric, plugin or pure hybrids available. You cannot compare apples and oranges.

I am not suggesting this is fully representative of the whole market but I recently changed from ICE (Focus hatch) to PHEV (Ionic) so just as an example I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

Just a small sample of the market but very indicative of typical availability of cars for those who want nearly new with dealership and manufacturer backup.

I agree prices may adjust but is that not a representation of supply and demand pimarily .....or also the manufacturers backing of higher/older cars distorting the market in an attempt to reduce the better warranty from the likes of Hyundai, Kia, Toyota etc. to get rid of ICE stock as the rest try and ramp up electric production?

JKenH

Heedtheadvice said:

ABrass is quite correct.

There are a huge number of ICE second hand cars available but no where near as many electric, plugin or pure hybrids available. You cannot compare apples and oranges.

I am not suggesting this is fully representative of the whole market but I recently changed from ICE (Focus hatch) to PHEV (Ionic) so just as an example I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

Just a small sample of the market but very indicative of typical availability of cars for those who want nearly new with dealership and manufacturer backup.

I agree prices may adjust but is that not a representation of supply and demand pimarily .....or also the manufacturers backing of higher/older cars distorting the market in an attempt to reduce the better warranty from the likes of Hyundai, Kia, Toyota etc. to get rid of ICE stock as the rest try and ramp up electric production?

Actually your example tends to support my argument. Given that only 13 people in 1000 (1.3%) are looking for an electric car and there are 80 available those buyers are less constrained than the remaining 987 squabbling over 362 cars. 

I can’t prove a negative, i.e. that there are no constraints on used electric car supply but I suspect that the used electric car market is less constrained than the new EV market. If new EVs were in plentiful supply they would probably sell even more and the gulf between new and used EV sales would widen further. 

ABrass

JKenH said:

Heedtheadvice said:

ABrass is quite correct.

There are a huge number of ICE second hand cars available but no where near as many electric, plugin or pure hybrids available. You cannot compare apples and oranges.

I am not suggesting this is fully representative of the whole market but I recently changed from ICE (Focus hatch) to PHEV (Ionic) so just as an example I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

Just a small sample of the market but very indicative of typical availability of cars for those who want nearly new with dealership and manufacturer backup.

I agree prices may adjust but is that not a representation of supply and demand pimarily .....or also the manufacturers backing of higher/older cars distorting the market in an attempt to reduce the better warranty from the likes of Hyundai, Kia, Toyota etc. to get rid of ICE stock as the rest try and ramp up electric production?

Actually your example tends to support my argument. Given that only 13 people in 1000 (1.3%) are looking for an electric car and there are 80 available those buyers are less constrained than the remaining 987 squabbling over 362 cars. 

I can’t prove a negative, i.e. that there are no constraints on used electric car supply but I suspect that the used electric car market is less constrained than the new EV market. If new EVs were in plentiful supply they would probably sell even more and the gulf between new and used EV sales would widen further. 

1.3% of cars bought were EVs, no one knows how many were looking for them but couldn't find one because supply is so limited.

JKenH

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Heedtheadvice said:

ABrass is quite correct.

There are a huge number of ICE second hand cars available but no where near as many electric, plugin or pure hybrids available. You cannot compare apples and oranges.

I am not suggesting this is fully representative of the whole market but I recently changed from ICE (Focus hatch) to PHEV (Ionic) so just as an example I have just looked at Ford approved used Focus of all types and Hyundai approved Ionic, again all types. 362 of the former and 80 of the latter both for all uk.

Surprisingly the Ford approved includes some quite old or high mileage cars but even cutting the selection down to the Ionic typical price range for typical used car (years appox 2016 to 2020) there are still approx 270 focus listed.

Just a small sample of the market but very indicative of typical availability of cars for those who want nearly new with dealership and manufacturer backup.

I agree prices may adjust but is that not a representation of supply and demand pimarily .....or also the manufacturers backing of higher/older cars distorting the market in an attempt to reduce the better warranty from the likes of Hyundai, Kia, Toyota etc. to get rid of ICE stock as the rest try and ramp up electric production?

Actually your example tends to support my argument. Given that only 13 people in 1000 (1.3%) are looking for an electric car and there are 80 available those buyers are less constrained than the remaining 987 squabbling over 362 cars. 

I can’t prove a negative, i.e. that there are no constraints on used electric car supply but I suspect that the used electric car market is less constrained than the new EV market. If new EVs were in plentiful supply they would probably sell even more and the gulf between new and used EV sales would widen further. 

1.3% of cars bought were EVs, no one knows how many were looking for them but couldn't find one because supply is so limited.

True, but the same could be said for new EVs or used ICEvs where it is well documented that used prices have been rising quite dramatically because of shortage of supply. I don’t recall seeing many (any) articles about short supply of used EVs.