Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

QrizB

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Allegra Stratton is right about electric cars

Article by Bjorn Lamborghini  in today’s Telegraph.

But, surely, electric cars will save the world? Well, no. The IEA estimates that even if the whole world achieved all of its ambitious electric vehicle targets, the annual CO2 emission reduction will be an additional 53 million tons, reducing global emissions by about 0.1 per cent. According to the UN Climate Panel’s models, if this reduction is continued throughout the rest of the century, it will reduce global temperatures by 0.002°C by 2100.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/04/allegra-stratton-right-electric-cars/

I was hoping to stay out of this thread for a bit but there are some very iffy stats in that article (the bit you quoted). I don't know whether it's the IEA report (there's no link or reference in the Telegraph) or the columnist is being selective in their reporting.

According to this government document (page 87) the UK alone will be reducing CO2 emissions from light vehicles by 620 to 850 million tons between 2020 and 2050; that's roughly 20 to 28 million tons a year. I can't believe that the rest of the world combined has lower targets than the UK does.

Sorry, I can’t help there. I don’t know anymore than what’s in the article. 

No worries, it wasn't a criticism of you, just of the author (and, I guess, of the Telegraph for failing to properly sub-edit their own columnist).

If I could be bothered I'd try to track down the IEA report and see exactly what it says but it's really not worth the effort.

Martyn1981

Sticking with the small Tesla rumours, thoughts are that we may have to wait longer as it's dependent on the batteries. Not that I think anyone was expecting something imminently.


Tesla’s $25,000 electric car: temper your expectations about the timing

At Tesla Battery Day last year, CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla will be making a $25,000 electric car.

The CEO commented in the announcement:

Tesla will make a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that is also fully autonomous.

He made it clear that this new price point is achieved through Tesla’s new battery cell and battery manufacturing effort, which could reduce battery costs by over 50%.

Looks like Nissan is trying to fight its way back with some big price cuts on the Leaf in the US.

Nissan slashes 2022 LEAF price to $27.5k, under $20k after Fed Tax credit

Move over, Mini Electric, there’s a new price-friendly EV in town. Nissan has released pricing on its all-electric 2022 Nissan LEAF, and it’s pretty aggressive. The automaker slashed the LEAF price by over $4,200 compared to the 2021 models, making it the most affordable EV in the US… at least for now.

Martyn1981

For urban deliveries, small might be better, with E-cargo bikes

Cargo bikes deliver faster and cleaner than vans, study finds

Electric cargo bikes deliver about 60% faster than vans in city centres, according to a study. It found that bikes had a higher average speed and dropped off 10 parcels an hour, compared with six for vans.

The bikes also cut carbon emissions by 90% compared with diesel vans, and by a third compared with electric vans, the report said. Air pollution, which is still at illegal levels in many urban areas, was also significantly reduced.

Home deliveries have soared in recent years, spurred by online shopping and the coronavirus pandemic. Vans can travel along clear stretches of road at higher speeds than cargo bikes but are slowed by congestion and the search for parking. Cargo bikes bypass traffic jams, take shortcuts through streets closed to through traffic and ride to the customers door.

JKenH

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Allegra Stratton is right about electric cars

Article by Bjorn Lamborghini  in today’s Telegraph.

But, surely, electric cars will save the world? Well, no. The IEA estimates that even if the whole world achieved all of its ambitious electric vehicle targets, the annual CO2 emission reduction will be an additional 53 million tons, reducing global emissions by about 0.1 per cent. According to the UN Climate Panel’s models, if this reduction is continued throughout the rest of the century, it will reduce global temperatures by 0.002°C by 2100.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/04/allegra-stratton-right-electric-cars/

I was hoping to stay out of this thread for a bit but there are some very iffy stats in that article (the bit you quoted). I don't know whether it's the IEA report (there's no link or reference in the Telegraph) or the columnist is being selective in their reporting.

According to this government document (page 87) the UK alone will be reducing CO2 emissions from light vehicles by 620 to 850 million tons between 2020 and 2050; that's roughly 20 to 28 million tons a year. I can't believe that the rest of the world combined has lower targets than the UK does.

Sorry, I can’t help there. I don’t know anymore than what’s in the article. 

No worries, it wasn't a criticism of you, just of the author (and, I guess, of the Telegraph for failing to properly sub-edit their own columnist).

If I could be bothered I'd try to track down the IEA report and see exactly what it says but it's really not worth the effort.

I was thinking a bit more about this and wondered if the figure related to overall CO2 savings from EVs rather than  just tailpipe emissions. 

At the moment the carbon intensity of the  UK grid is around 190g of CO2 per kWh which compared to much of the  world is pretty low. If an EV has an efficiency of 3.5 miles per kWh then after allowing for charging losses it will go about 3 miles for every kWh from the power station which is around 63g of CO2 per mile. 

Average emissions of new UK cars was 124.5 grams of CO2 per mile so we are saving roughly 50% by the switch to electric here in the UK. 

Worldwide, the average carbon intensity of the grid (2019 IEA report) was 475g so at an average of 3 miles per kWh that works out at 158grams of CO2 per mile from an EV.

Until the carbon intensity of the grid world wide is cleaned up any CO2 savings from switching to EVs will be marginal if there are any at all. Remember China the world’s biggest manufacturer and user of EVs is still building out new coal fired stations. In some provinces of China the carbon intensity of the grid is over 1000g/kWh.

Then of course EVs consume more CO2 during manufacture. So was this also taken into account in calculating the savings referred to in the article quoted. 

I don’t know but the final figure arrived at will depend very much on the assumptions used to calculate the figure. This tends to be a highly contentious argument and different groups will come up with different figures depending on those different assumptions. All we can do is treat any figures with caution.

Edit: one other thought is the figure you quoted the saving in CO2 from replacing the old cars which are taken off the road or is it the saving if those old cars are replaced by EVs instead of new cars?

michaels

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Allegra Stratton is right about electric cars

Article by Bjorn Lamborghini  in today’s Telegraph.

But, surely, electric cars will save the world? Well, no. The IEA estimates that even if the whole world achieved all of its ambitious electric vehicle targets, the annual CO2 emission reduction will be an additional 53 million tons, reducing global emissions by about 0.1 per cent. According to the UN Climate Panel’s models, if this reduction is continued throughout the rest of the century, it will reduce global temperatures by 0.002°C by 2100.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/04/allegra-stratton-right-electric-cars/

I was hoping to stay out of this thread for a bit but there are some very iffy stats in that article (the bit you quoted). I don't know whether it's the IEA report (there's no link or reference in the Telegraph) or the columnist is being selective in their reporting.

According to this government document (page 87) the UK alone will be reducing CO2 emissions from light vehicles by 620 to 850 million tons between 2020 and 2050; that's roughly 20 to 28 million tons a year. I can't believe that the rest of the world combined has lower targets than the UK does.

Sorry, I can’t help there. I don’t know anymore than what’s in the article. 

No worries, it wasn't a criticism of you, just of the author (and, I guess, of the Telegraph for failing to properly sub-edit their own columnist).

If I could be bothered I'd try to track down the IEA report and see exactly what it says but it's really not worth the effort.

I was thinking a bit more about this and wondered if the figure related to overall CO2 savings from EVs rather than  just tailpipe emissions. 

At the moment the carbon intensity of the  UK grid is around 190g of CO2 per kWh which compared to much of the  world is pretty low. If an EV has an efficiency of 3.5 miles per kWh then after allowing for charging losses it will go about 3 miles for every kWh from the power station which is around 63g of CO2 per mile. 

Average emissions of new UK cars was 124.5 grams of CO2 per mile so we are saving roughly 50% by the switch to electric here in the UK. 

Worldwide, the average carbon intensity of the grid (2019 IEA report) was 475g so at an average of 3 miles per kWh that works out at 158grams of CO2 per mile from an EV.

Until the carbon intensity of the grid world wide is cleaned up any CO2 savings from switching to EVs will be marginal if there are any at all. Remember China the world’s biggest manufacturer and user of EVs is still building out new coal fired stations. In some provinces of China the carbon intensity of the grid is over 1000g/kWh.

Then of course EVs consume more CO2 during manufacture. So was this also taken into account in calculating the savings referred to in the article quoted. 

I don’t know but the final figure arrived at will depend very much on the assumptions used to calculate the figure. This tends to be a highly contentious argument and different groups will come up with different figures depending on those different assumptions. All we can do is treat any figures with caution.

Edit: one other thought is the figure you quoted the saving in CO2 from replacing the old cars which are taken off the road or is it the saving if those old cars are replaced by EVs instead of new cars?

What are the average CO2 emissions of ICE cars in the real world?  Given that quoted MPGs seem to be over by 10-20% compared to what is achieved real world, presumably the same is true for CO2 emissions.

Other point is that the recent direction of travel is for all grids to become less carbon intensive and presumably this is expected to continue?

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Allegra Stratton is right about electric cars

Article by Bjorn Lamborghini  in today’s Telegraph.

But, surely, electric cars will save the world? Well, no. The IEA estimates that even if the whole world achieved all of its ambitious electric vehicle targets, the annual CO2 emission reduction will be an additional 53 million tons, reducing global emissions by about 0.1 per cent. According to the UN Climate Panel’s models, if this reduction is continued throughout the rest of the century, it will reduce global temperatures by 0.002°C by 2100.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/04/allegra-stratton-right-electric-cars/

I was hoping to stay out of this thread for a bit but there are some very iffy stats in that article (the bit you quoted). I don't know whether it's the IEA report (there's no link or reference in the Telegraph) or the columnist is being selective in their reporting.

According to this government document (page 87) the UK alone will be reducing CO2 emissions from light vehicles by 620 to 850 million tons between 2020 and 2050; that's roughly 20 to 28 million tons a year. I can't believe that the rest of the world combined has lower targets than the UK does.

Sorry, I can’t help there. I don’t know anymore than what’s in the article. 

No worries, it wasn't a criticism of you, just of the author (and, I guess, of the Telegraph for failing to properly sub-edit their own columnist).

If I could be bothered I'd try to track down the IEA report and see exactly what it says but it's really not worth the effort.

I was thinking a bit more about this and wondered if the figure related to overall CO2 savings from EVs rather than  just tailpipe emissions. 

At the moment the carbon intensity of the  UK grid is around 190g of CO2 per kWh which compared to much of the  world is pretty low. If an EV has an efficiency of 3.5 miles per kWh then after allowing for charging losses it will go about 3 miles for every kWh from the power station which is around 63g of CO2 per mile. 

Average emissions of new UK cars was 124.5 grams of CO2 per mile so we are saving roughly 50% by the switch to electric here in the UK. 

Worldwide, the average carbon intensity of the grid (2019 IEA report) was 475g so at an average of 3 miles per kWh that works out at 158grams of CO2 per mile from an EV.

Until the carbon intensity of the grid world wide is cleaned up any CO2 savings from switching to EVs will be marginal if there are any at all. Remember China the world’s biggest manufacturer and user of EVs is still building out new coal fired stations. In some provinces of China the carbon intensity of the grid is over 1000g/kWh.

Then of course EVs consume more CO2 during manufacture. So was this also taken into account in calculating the savings referred to in the article quoted. 

I don’t know but the final figure arrived at will depend very much on the assumptions used to calculate the figure. This tends to be a highly contentious argument and different groups will come up with different figures depending on those different assumptions. All we can do is treat any figures with caution.

Edit: one other thought is the figure you quoted the saving in CO2 from replacing the old cars which are taken off the road or is it the saving if those old cars are replaced by EVs instead of new cars?

What are the average CO2 emissions of ICE cars in the real world?  Given that quoted MPGs seem to be over by 10-20% compared to what is achieved real world, presumably the same is true for CO2 emissions.

Other point is that the recent direction of travel is for all grids to become less carbon intensive and presumably this is expected to continue?

This might help with your question. 

As a consequence, when analyzing fueling records for WLTP type-approved vehicles from the consumer website Spritmonitor.de, we observe a strong drop in the real-world CO2 gap for data collected in 2018, to a level of approximately 14%.

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/On-the-way-to-real-world-WLTP_May2020.pdf

The grid intensity is falling but not as fast as I was expecting to see.

From the 2019 IEA report

Today the average carbon intensity of electricity generated is 475 gCO2/kWh, a 10% improvement on the intensity from 2010.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-co2-status-report-2019/emissions


I don’t have equivalent Worldwide figures but fir 2010 to 2018 average CI2 emissions for new cars in Europe fell 14%.

Despite the recent increase, new cars sold in 2018 were on average 14 % more efficient than those sold in 2010.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/average-co2-emissions-from-motor-vehicles/assessment-1

Since then manufacturers have had to make even more severe cuts and looking at the rules for 2025 these will be even more stringent so it is possible that vehicle CO2 emissions may fall faster than electricity generation emissions.

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Allegra Stratton is right about electric cars

Article by Bjorn Lamborghini  in today’s Telegraph.

But, surely, electric cars will save the world? Well, no. The IEA estimates that even if the whole world achieved all of its ambitious electric vehicle targets, the annual CO2 emission reduction will be an additional 53 million tons, reducing global emissions by about 0.1 per cent. According to the UN Climate Panel’s models, if this reduction is continued throughout the rest of the century, it will reduce global temperatures by 0.002°C by 2100.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/04/allegra-stratton-right-electric-cars/

I was hoping to stay out of this thread for a bit but there are some very iffy stats in that article (the bit you quoted). I don't know whether it's the IEA report (there's no link or reference in the Telegraph) or the columnist is being selective in their reporting.

According to this government document (page 87) the UK alone will be reducing CO2 emissions from light vehicles by 620 to 850 million tons between 2020 and 2050; that's roughly 20 to 28 million tons a year. I can't believe that the rest of the world combined has lower targets than the UK does.

Yep, I can only go by the chosen quote, but it sets off every alarm bell.

I appreciate that the IEA is, to put it politely, not great at predicting RE rollout, but I suppose if they base their estimates on policies, then that gives them some validation.

So, looking at their 2021 Global EV Outlook they are reporting/predicting, in 'Prospects' under:

"Net and avoided well-to-wheel GHG emissions from the global electric vehicle fleet in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2020-2030"

they give the figure of 53.5mt CO2(e) for 2021, and 120.9 for 2030. For 2021 they note that - equivalent to the entire energy sector emissions in Hungary in 2019.    Obviously the savings accelerate due both to greater annual sales of EV's, and a growing percentage of EV's in the total fleet. In their sustainable development scenario for 2030 they give 409mt CO2(e).

Clearly, taking the IEA's figure for 2021 and "if this reduction is continued throughout the rest of the century" would give a very unimpressive result, especially as we are now only at the start of disruption, with total models and total supply only now expanding rapidly. Whether or not the article deliberately set out to make the long term savings appear trivial, I don't know.


In fairness to the IEA, if you read their 'Overview' it's actually really promising.

Overall, it's extremely important to remember just how large the transport emissions sector is. In the US in 2019 it was the largest source of CO2(e) emissions at 29%, with leccy generation in second place at 25%. As other sectors reduce their emissions, the transport percentage will become larger, so it's fantastic news to see the growth of EV's accelerating and the carbon intensity of grids falling.

Martyn1981

Don't read the small print.

U.S. automakers to say they aspire to up to 50% of EV sales by 2030 -sources

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Detroit’s Big Three automakers plan to announce on Thursday that they aspire to have 40% to 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 be electric models as they call for billions in U.S. government assistance to meet aggressive targets, sources briefed on the matter said.

Great news. Yes 40% to 50% BEV's is hardly 'aspirational', but it's still good new............ oh wait .........

Automakers’ target includes full-battery electric, plug-in electric hybrid vehicles, which also have gasoline engines, and hydrogen fuel cell models, sources said.

Oh boy, it includes PHEV's. I guess they want a certain company to eat their lunches then!

Martyn1981

It's the little things in life, they say! Well, this article just made my day - not because it's about a BEV tractor, though of course that's great news, but after years of wittering on about how great it would be to have swappable batts for farm equipment, because farms are also ideal locations for large solar arrays, I read this line:

There is also an option to add a swappable 60 kWh battery pack for another $18,000.

Solectrac launches new 70 HP, 60 kWh electric tractor for $75,000

Electric tractor developer Solectrac has announced that its e70N tractor is now available for sale. Solectrac recently delivered the 70-horsepower, diesel-equivalent tractors to three farms in Northern California as part of a grant from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District’s Funding Agriculture Replacement Measures for Emission Reductions Demonstration Program (FARMER).

Their website states:

Runtime
4 – 8 hrs depending on the load, and you can double the range with an exchangeable pack.

Martyn1981

German BEV sales stay above 10% for July and YTD, so there's no going back now.

Germany’s Plugin EV Share More Than Doubles To 23.5% In July – Combustion Share At Record Low

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, and the world’s 4th largest, saw plugin electric vehicle market share more than double year-on-year to 23.5% share in July 2021. Old-school combustion powertrains fell to a record low of 59.2%, with diesels under 20%. Overall auto volumes in July were down almost 30% compared to the pre-COVID July 2019 result.

July’s combined plugin result of 23.5% consisted of 10.8% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 12.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), a ratio roughly in line with recent months. The year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 22.6% (10.7% BEV, 11.9% PHEV), up from 8.51% at this point in 2020.

Non-electric-assist combustion powertrains fell to their lowest ever share, at 59.2% (from 77.5% YOY), with diesels doing particularly badly at 19.7% (from 28.4% YOY):