BEVs deals and information

EricMears

joefizz wrote: »

. . . . Its like the things Martyn said (and Im not picking on you martyn, honest ;-)) about needing more seats (just do 2 runs), large dogs (get a dog trailer), large sheets (trailer and or roofrack). But I have no idea how practical/impractical those solutions would be for Martyn, so yes solutions are easily available for most things but are they really practical or even do people really want to be bothered adapting... ...in most cases not. . .

There are very few BEVs that have type approval for towing and I don't think any of them are in the market sector that Martyn has said he'd be interested in. Two trips instead of one would work for short trips but doubling the driver's journey time wouldn't be very convenient for most trips.

joefizz wrote: »

. . The small electric cars have made it very easy for city car sharing schemes, they mostly have dedicated parking bays anyway so charging points are easy to install and generally distances are small.

Alas, dedicated BEV parking pays are very often ICE'd by drivers who don't bother to read the signs !

ABrass

Is that vehicles or cars? Theres been a massive increase in light vans on the road (amazon etc)

Good spot, that was all vehicles. I'm taking my numbers from the Vehicle licensing statistics pdf for 2018.

In the last 24 years cars have increased by 50% and LGVs by 88%, but at the moment the ratio is 8:1 for cars to LGV.

Also the average age for cars is 8.2 years at the moment which is increasing slightly.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

Also the average age for cars is 8.2 years at the moment which is increasing slightly.

Which again, I mentioned with the credit restriction, harder to get new cars on reasonable PCP, new car sales falling and older cars being run for longer. Its all connected.

What you would have expected post initial scrappage without external actor intervention.

Only when it reaches a decent maturity cycle can you compare lifetime EV against anything else because you wont have the external actors influencing it. Governments cutting effective lifetimes to 10 years and car companies doing whatever they do with excess 6 year old cars etc.

The next big influence is what they decide to do with all the current diesels on the road. Then again if credit isnt available easily/cheaply then theres not much they can do. Any on PCP would be practically worthless when they are handed back.


Looking at the london use case applied to other cities (particularly Belfast) then probably just tax out of existence or make it too expensive to run.



Coincidently just happened to watch the dispatches programme on London air quality in schools last night. The tyre thing isnt really a surprise, was always taught when learning to be careful on roads the first rain after a prolonged dry spell. Dont really get those here though ;-)

ABrass

The value of luxury ICE vehicles is starting to drop apparently. In part perhaps due to the fear of being tied into non liquid assets.

Which could at worst cause another financial meltdown as PCP is a huge financial market and runs on razor thin margins underpinned by the expected value of cars once handed back. Just for your daily sky-is-falling forecast.

mmmmikey

Yes, put my name on the "people who think the PCP bubble is going to burst" list.

Replacing my car at the moment, expected delivery next week. I have no evidence of income whatsoever as I've stopped working and I'm living off savings until my pension kicks in, but even knowing this the dealers were bending over backwards to persuade me to go for PCP finance. It's clear to me that even the most basic of affordability checks aren't being done in a meaningful way. The dealers' incentive is presumably to lock you in to a 3 year (or whatever) replacement cycle and I assume they make some kind of commission from the finance companies over and above what they make from selling the car.

Add to that the fact that the business model is heavily based on residual values, and there's huge uncertainty around that at the moment. What effect will the expected increase in BEV sales have on demand for and values of used ICE cars? What effect will falling prices of new BEVs have on values of used BEVs?

It does look to me like this is all going to come crashing down soon.

Doomed - we're all doomed.....

almillar

If you want a theory, then perfectly useable cars are deliberately being taken out of circulation to keep new car sales going.
Ive a 12 year old diesel and Id hardly call it a scrapper.

Well yes, we've been over the economics of it. So, when your 12 year old diesel needs a part fitted, and it'll cost more than the value of the car, will you fix or move on? Cars become economically unviable every day, and IMO it happens faster in the UK because cars are plentiful and cheap, and labour and parts are expensive.

I know this one wasnt in reply to me but if youve motd a diesel here in NI they dont test emissions (even though they legally should).

Indeed, a very bad thing going by the number of smelly smokers I see and smell on the road. But we were talking about petrol engines (a particularly lovely rotary one).

Doesnt the ICE golf have remote start as an option? Hired one I had in Canada had one, might not be an option here or just part of the winter pack there though.

Just coming in on some cars with the 'appification' of cars (of which EVs have been a large part) but of course you'll be starting an ICE to get the heat.

No idea what a rapid 100KW charger costs but some googling suggests $10,000 per charger (Tesla dedicated stations seem to be $15k per space)

Not Tesla, as they're not publicly accessible, and installed in multiples. I thought it was £50,000 for a public rapid charger (50kW at the time).

A 10 minute charge could add to Tesla model 3 some 100 miles range.

At 3 miles per kWh, that would need a 33kW charger, for an hour. If you want to do that in 10 minutes, that would be a 200kW charger, and of course a car that could take it.

Just upgraded my computer over the last couple of days so dont have the old links from the gov statistics but there is this

So it's actually fairly steady, starting in 2000 at 7.11 years old average car age, and by 2016 has RISEN to 7.7. So where's the PCP effect? The aveage UK car has actually become slightly older.

ASavvyBuyer

mmmmikey wrote: »

The dealers' incentive is presumably to lock you in to a 3 year (or whatever) replacement cycle and I assume they make some kind of commission from the finance companies over and above what they make from selling the car.
..

Buying on PCP does not have to lock you in to a replacement cycle, as you can pay it off anytime.
When we bought our EV, the most economic way to buy was on PCP and then pay it off within the first few months. That gave us an extra £3-4k discount off the car.

Regarding running costs; for our first year of ownership our average "fuel" cost/mile has worked out at 1.77p/mile (which has worked out at the equivalent of over 300mpg based on the average cost of diesel) that includes the cost of all home & public charging (including Polar-plus subscription).

The insurance was cheaper too, compared to our 8 year old diesel.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

The value of luxury ICE vehicles is starting to drop apparently. In part perhaps due to the fear of being tied into non liquid assets.

Some real bargains out there but who would touch them?
If you want scared have a look at motor tax rates in the republic of ireland... ...for a while they couldnt give 10 year old 2 litre cars away...
That 10 year old Alfa GTV 3.2 litre you were hoping to get 3 grand for now costs 1800 quid a year to tax.


That 11 grand maserati quattroporte looks good value until its the guts of 600 quid a year to tax (1800 euro in ROI). Well that and its a maserati and 1800 quid a year tax would be the least of your worries.


After I came back from the states in the summer I found myself face to face with a 3 year old full drug dealer spec Ford Ranger in a dealers I was working with. Apart from being full drug dealer spec and probably needing to be fully armoured (or resprayed) to drive around Belfast I was surprised at how 'cheap' it was for low mileage (less than a suzuki jimny). Then you look at the tax and the tyres and the mortgage required to fill the tank....



I come down hard on PCP (or rather its misuse) but John Oliver did a last week tonight show on car loans in the US, thats a different world entirely!

GreatApe

mmmmikey wrote: »

Yes, put my name on the "people who think the PCP bubble is going to burst" list.

Replacing my car at the moment, expected delivery next week. I have no evidence of income whatsoever as I've stopped working and I'm living off savings until my pension kicks in, but even knowing this the dealers were bending over backwards to persuade me to go for PCP finance. It's clear to me that even the most basic of affordability checks aren't being done in a meaningful way. The dealers' incentive is presumably to lock you in to a 3 year (or whatever) replacement cycle and I assume they make some kind of commission from the finance companies over and above what they make from selling the car.

Add to that the fact that the business model is heavily based on residual values, and there's huge uncertainty around that at the moment. What effect will the expected increase in BEV sales have on demand for and values of used ICE cars? What effect will falling prices of new BEVs have on values of used BEVs?

It does look to me like this is all going to come crashing down soon.

Doomed - we're all doomed.....

They own the car you are just renting it

If you stop the payments they can just take it back and rent it to the next person or sell it

You can argue they are mis pricing by £x pounds per month but not that this is somehow a failed business plan

The worse thing that can happen is they slightly misprice things and some insurance company makes a smaller profit. Hardly the end of the world

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

At 3 miles per kWh, that would need a 33kW charger, for an hour. If you want to do that in 10 minutes, that would be a 200kW charger, and of course a car that could take it.

A model 3 can take about 250KW of power this does fall as the battery fills up
A super charger does not need to be used to fill to full it just needs to fill you up enough to get back home. You could add 75 miles in 5 minute charge enough to complete your journey and then fill up at home for use the next day. So if your short of range just do a very quick effective rapid charge to add the X miles you need to get home. A 5 minute stop is fine it's all you need to get home

Also BEVs are still at the very early stages
Batteries will continue to improve
As chargers become very common I think we will see lower range models be perfectly acceptable
Also it seems batteries that are okay to charge to 100% and discharge towards 0% while not degrading too much are now possible which is a huge improvement

If the most common models have 150 mile range and 30KWh batteries that would be fine
A 7.2KW home charger can get you from 5% to 100% full in in 4 hours

Perhaps even a 100 mile range 20KWh model will be acceptable for most customers
I think I could live with such a car. 90 mile range would be fine and you can charge at both ends
With a supercharger at every petrol station you'd be fine
In fact with 8,400 petrol stations in the UK, there can be 84,000 super chargers dotted around that's 10x more commen than petrol stations so charging and range would be no worry.

For those who often do more than 100 mile trips they can get 300-500 mile range versions