BEVs deals and information

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

Thats the entire essence of my argument right there Martyn.

The average age of a vehicle operating in the uk is 6/7 years (taken from DVLA figures).
You could say the average lifetime of a vehicle is 13 years.


Cars in the UK arent being run to their average lifetime. If they were there would be a lot less new cars bought and we wouldnt be having this discussion (or certainly my part of it).


I'll repeat it once again to be absolutely clear. The figures for EVs vs ICE (or new ICE vs old ICE) are averaged over the lifetime. Cars in the UK arent being run to that lifetime.

But you've been saying the average lifetime is 6-7yrs (not age), and you confirmed that in your own calcs concluding that at 7,100 miles pa, cars only average ~50,000 miles.

I'm not sure how you can conclude that cars aren't being run to that lifetime, if that's their average age?

joefizz

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But you've been saying the average lifetime is 6-7yrs (not age), and you confirmed that in your own calcs concluding that at 7,100 miles pa, cars only average ~50,000 miles.

I'm not sure how you can conclude that cars aren't being run to that lifetime, if that's their average age?

I feel like Jordan Peterson here...
No Martyn thats not what Im saying.
What Im saying is....
The average age of a car on the road in the UK is 6/7 years. Its been that way for about 20 years, and in 20 years the numbers of cars on the road has increased less than 15%.


It has nothing to do with lifetimes, you are the one introducing lifetimes and confusing the two.
Lifetime is the theoretical average age a car can be driven to. The age of the cars on the road is exactly that, the age of the cars being driven. The two figures arent related. except that the age of the cars on the road should be less than the average lifetime of the car. Ideally (my whole point) the average age of the car on the road should be equal to or slightly less than the average lifetime.



So as lifetimes of cars increase that should also increase the average age of cars on the road in the UK (above increase in supply). Thats not happening.

ABrass

Joe: I think you've made a mistake in there. What you're saying doesn't make sense.

Ideally (my whole point) the average age of the car on the road should be equal to or slightly less than the average lifetime.

For that to be true you'd need all your cars to be bought X years ago and for them all to run out around now. So no new cars at all, ever. Clearly that's nonsense, so you must mean something else?

I agree with your final point, namely that if cars lasted longer now than in the past then the average age would increase. Which you say doesn't show up in the numbers. However that assumes all other things were equal. Which they aren't.

You'd have to crunch the numbers to see how the supposed increase in the lifespan of a car works with the number of cars on the road increasing (or more cars being added than being scrapped) which would drag that down.

Think of it as aging people, if there's a baby boom in your town and hundreds of toddlers turn up then your town has a lower average age, but the life expectancy numbers won't change but the average amount of life lived will go down.

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

I feel like Jordan Peterson here...
No Martyn thats not what Im saying.
What Im saying is....
The average age of a car on the road in the UK is 6/7 years. Its been that way for about 20 years, and in 20 years the numbers of cars on the road has increased less than 15%.


It has nothing to do with lifetimes, you are the one introducing lifetimes and confusing the two.
Lifetime is the theoretical average age a car can be driven to. The age of the cars on the road is exactly that, the age of the cars being driven. The two figures arent related. except that the age of the cars on the road should be less than the average lifetime of the car. Ideally (my whole point) the average age of the car on the road should be equal to or slightly less than the average lifetime.



So as lifetimes of cars increase that should also increase the average age of cars on the road in the UK (above increase in supply). Thats not happening.

Sorry Joe, I simply can't follow what you are saying now.

You were quite specific about the lifetime of a car:

joefizz wrote: »

Problem is, the average lifetime of a car in the UK is 6-7 years... but thats why they quote mileage figures. As Ive mentioned, surprisingly, that figure hasnt really changed at all in the last 20 years.
Maybe it will change with EVs, who knows?

But in reality the average lifetime of a car in the UK is double that. That's not a theoretical figure but a real one.

So as you said earlier:

joefizz wrote: »

Cars in the UK arent being run to their average lifetime. If they were there would be a lot less new cars bought and we wouldnt be having this discussion (or certainly my part of it).

Are you now happy that we don't need to be having this discussion as cars in the UK are being run to their average lifetime, otherwise it wouldn't be an average lifetime.

BTW, the average age of the cars on the UK road can't be egual to or slightly less than the average lifetime, as that would require there being no new cars at all, no young cars at all, just all cars being, say, 13yrs old. The average age of a car, like a person, will always be around half that of the average lifetime, that's what makes it an average?

Edit @ ABrass, sorry, you beat me to it, and our posts crossed. M.

ABrass

Half is a rough guide and assumes a linear relationship. It's probably a lot more complex and closer to a standard distribution curve. Probably one with a fatter and longer tail thanks to classic cars.

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

Half is a rough guide and assumes a linear relationship. It's probably a lot more complex and closer to a standard distribution curve. Probably one with a fatter and longer tail thanks to classic cars.

That's why I snuck in an 'around'.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

Joe: I think you've made a mistake in there. What you're saying doesn't make sense.

For that to be true you'd need all your cars to be bought X years ago and for them all to run out around now. So no new cars at all, ever. Clearly that's nonsense, so you must mean something else?

Its nonsense if as you mention you dont see all of it as moving. If it were all fixed figures then yes, agreed.
However as you point average lifetimes have been increasing, with time so you would expect over 20 years for that 6/7 year number to creep up with new cars feeding in etc (allowing for increase in numbers of cars which is less than 15% in 15 years or so).

In about 13 years time that number should be about 13 by which time the average lifetime (allowing for EVs) should be maybe 25 years...


Its all averages so as my entire point is, when you drill down into the reasons why this isnt happening, your 'assuming all things are equal, which they arent' bit and that goes back to my point about scrappages and pcp and inbuilt obsolesence.

Thats the 'which they arent' bit.


Which brings me back to where I started about external forces artificially keeping the age of cars down, which is only really done to promote new car sales and in a lot of cases masquerading as 'green' when its anything but.

Martyn1981

I was watching Fully Charged yesterday and there was a bit mentioning EDF and an EV tariff (near the end). TBH I wasn't paying attention (I was struggling with a killer soduko) but I took in mention of half price leccy (8p) and an E10 timescale (9pm to 7pm) and all weekend, so 9pm Friday to 7am Monday.

Could be a pile of carp when other factors such as standing charges are included, but thought I'd mention it.

News update & Kona Winner | Fully Charged

ABrass

A quick Google implies there's been a 35% increase in the number of cars on the road in the last ~20 years but the number of new cars registered each year hasn't drastically changed. I think some of the numbers being used are wrong.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

A quick Google implies there's been a 35% increase in the number of cars on the road in the last ~20 years but the number of new cars registered each year hasn't drastically changed. I think some of the numbers being used are wrong.

Is that vehicles or cars? Theres been a massive increase in light vans on the road (amazon etc)