Electric vehicles miles per KWh

JKenH

ed110220 wrote: »

A few points:-

Though the Fiesta might be the UK's best selling car, I suspect that the best selling price range of cars is probably considerably more expensive. I had a quick search for breakdown of car sales by price but couldn't find anything and would be interested to see that information. I suspect that a large minority of new cars sold cost more than the ~£30k starting price of longer range EVs.Therefore a significant part of the market is ready for electrification based on price, even if not a majority.

Second, I think it's a mistake to assume that an EV must cost the same as an Ice. As the running costs will be lower for the EV, it can be more expensive for the same total cost of ownership. Especially as relatively few people buy new cars with cash - it's the monthly cost of the Pcp etc that is more important than the sticker price.

Third, cars in.the fiesta price range usually don't do that many miles. Few people who drive around the county for work will do so in a fiesta. Therefore there is some logic in concentrating on electrifying the classes of vehicles that do the most miles.

I did just have a look to see if I could find any stats on car sales in 2019 and came across this Sunday Times article on sales to end of July.

https://www.driving.co.uk/news/business/uks-top-10-best-selling-cars-2019-updated/

Of the top ten cars sold all were either small (Polo, Fiesta etc) small family (Golf, Focus etc) or crossovers (Qashqai, Sportage and Kuga) so I would imagine the natural BEV replacements would be the likes of the Zoe and the Leaf. I am sure there will be some variants of models in the top 10 which are over £30k but on the whole most of us would regard the top ten selling cars as being sub £30k. If BEVs are going to make serious inroads into ICE sales then this is where the attention may need to be focussed.

One statistic that did surprise me was that combined BEV and PHEV sales actually fell year on year. There are reasons suggested for this - the removal of government grants for PHEVs - but nevertheless BEV’s growth in 2019 has been at the expense of PHEVs. On further consideration I perhaps should not be surprised as this does in fact reflect my own recent thinking; having previously ordered, and 9 months later cancelled a PHEV, I am now looking at going down the BEV route. That decision though is in part linked to my installation of solar PV and the potential for using BEV batteries for domestic PV storage at some time in the future. That then made me wonder what proportion of EV sales go to households with solar PV?

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

None of the top 10 selling UK cars have a starting price of £30k ........

Several cars in that list will cost close to £30K.

zeupater

ed110220 wrote: »

A few points:-

Though the Fiesta might be the UK's best selling car, I suspect that the best selling price range of cars is probably considerably more expensive. I had a quick search for breakdown of car sales by price but couldn't find anything and would be interested to see that information. I suspect that a large minority of new cars sold cost more than the ~£30k starting price of longer range EVs.Therefore a significant part of the market is ready for electrification based on price, even if not a majority.

Second, I think it's a mistake to assume that an EV must cost the same as an Ice. As the running costs will be lower for the EV, it can be more expensive for the same total cost of ownership. Especially as relatively few people buy new cars with cash - it's the monthly cost of the Pcp etc that is more important than the sticker price.

Third, cars in.the fiesta price range usually don't do that many miles. Few people who drive around the county for work will do so in a fiesta. Therefore there is some logic in concentrating on electrifying the classes of vehicles that do the most miles.

Hi

Careful, we'll all be led down the cassette deck, alloy wheels, sunroof, ABS & air conditioning cul-de-sac as a result of this thought train ....

:think: .... oh, wait a minute, maybe that's where we should be steering the conversation towards as none of these innovations started off at the lower end of the market but are pretty mainstream these days ... :idea: ... thinking about it, maybe it's a standard practice in any business sector to introduce new products & technologies into market sectors that can best absorb the initial costs before the trickle-down effect allows wider access .... wow, it's just as if we can all learn something new every day!! .... but maybe we already knew that anyway ... :whistle:

HTH
Z

Hexane

GreatApe wrote: »

Top 10 selling units 2018

Fiesta 96k units
...
Sportage 36k units

At the rate Tesla Model 3's are currently being delivered\collected in the UK (apparently), looks like they might sneak in around 11th place on that list for 2019 ...

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

One statistic that did surprise me was that combined BEV and PHEV sales actually fell year on year. There are reasons suggested for this - the removal of government grants for PHEVs - but nevertheless BEV’s growth in 2019 has been at the expense of PHEVs.

BEV sales have continued to grow year on year.

The problem with PHEV's is that they actually have a higher TCO than that of an ICE, whereas BEV's have a lower TCO.

PHEV's have done their job, they've proved the technology and shown that the batts last far longer than some assumed. But being the worst of both worlds (as well as the best) makes them too expensive going forward. So an environmental improvement, but a technological dead end.

Similar situation for diesel's too now, as to be 'clean' they cost too much. A BMW 3 series diesel is going to come in at around the same price as a TM3, but the Tesla will of course have a far lower TCO, and far higher performance. So Tesla has wrapped up the economics in the luxury sector, and mid size luxury sectors, steadily working downwards. Hopefully after the Y and the pick up, they will work on their $25k model as promised.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

Several cars in that list will cost close to £30K.

Not their base models

Would be more interesting to see the percentage of all new car sales broken down by

Below £10k
Between £10-£20k
Between £20-£30k
Above £30k-£40k
Above £40k

Anyone have the time to do this? Might take an hour or two putting it into a spreadsheet and googling base price actual achievable base prices

Here is the top 100 car sales data for Europe

https://focus2move.com/europe-best-selling-cars/

Martyn1981

ed110220 wrote: »

Though the Fiesta might be the UK's best selling car, I suspect that the best selling price range of cars is probably considerably more expensive.

The average price of a new car sold in the UK is now around £35k, so comparable to the TM3.

In the US, they are finding that the most common trade-ins for the TM3 are from a lower price bracket of cars that are around $25k (new). So looks like people are trading up based on cost of ownership not just purchase price.


Edit - Wow, the average s/h price is now £13k.

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The average price of a new car sold in the UK is now around £35k, so comparable to.[/URL]

Where did you get that £35k figure from?
This doesn't sound true looking at the top 20 list most of them are sub £25k some in the top 10 are even sub £15k like the Corsa and fiesta

Solarchaser

Makes sense really.
Most of your fiesta sized cars will do low mileage, meaning they are less polluting, so less of a priority.

So there isn't the bonus of electric mpkw vs mpg in thousands of miles to make the case if your fiesta does 2k miles a year.

The rep mobile size vehicle will do higher average mileage, meaning it's easier to make the tco work out positive for EV.

Regarding phev, they are at best a halfway house, in reality they are over complicated, and so will have high maintenance costs as they get older, and pretty useless as an EV due to poor range, so you have a ice car dragging round heavy batteries as well giving poor real world mpg.
Worst of all worlds really

Regarding your tax bollox you keep spouting great ape, the fact you cant change is that a solar charged electric car is free motoring.
And the taxing of fossil fuel makes it more expensive, of course it does... it should since its helping kill the planet.

Will the government move to taxing electricity, yeah probably, but will they tax it as heavily as fossils, no, they cant as it would push many people into fuel poverty.

Either way, those charging with their own solar..... still wont be paying tax

GreatApe

Volkswagen 236 billion euro from sales of 11 million cars = 21,400 euro per car
Actually probably less as some of their revenue is their finance arm

Doing the same for other car manufacturers. Data from Wikipedia

Volkswagen 21,400 euro per car
Renault 13,900 euro per car
Nissan 18,200 euro per car
Peugeot 19,600 euro per car

Again these are probably over estimates as the revenue also includes parts financing and logistics
The car sale prices are probably about 75% of the above figures

By comparison a TM3 cheapest option is closer to 45,000 euro significantly more than the average cost of an oil car