Electric vehicles miles per KWh

1961Nick

The latest Euro 6 diesel engines are proving to be less reliable than their Euro 4 & Euro 5 forebears. The days of a diesel engine being able to run past 100K without major intervention are disappearing fast. Blocked particulate filters, oil dilution & caked up EGRVs issues are now widespread even on cars that do big motorway mileages.

I reckon that one more round of emissions tightening will just about kill the diesel off.

Anyway, if you're going from London to Scotland why not just get the train? It'll be faster than a car & you'll spend less time with the 5 irritating people you don't know.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

The latest Euro 6 diesel engines are proving to be less reliable than their Euro 4 & Euro 5 forebears. The days of a diesel engine being able to run past 100K without major intervention are disappearing fast. Blocked particulate filters, oil dilution & caked up EGRVs issues are now widespread even on cars that do big motorway mileages.

I reckon that one more round of emissions tightening will just about kill the diesel off.

Anyway, if you're going from London to Scotland why not just get the train? It'll be faster than a car & you'll spend less time with the 5 irritating people you don't know.

Because trains are expensive hub to hub and the time to get to and from the station is significant

Looking on Google maps my option from here to a hospital in Edinburgh are

Trains: Requires walking taxis and train. The total cost of which will be around £170 per person and take 6h

Driving: just under 6.5h and will cost me £37 per car in fuel and if I go the unofficial motorway speed of 80mph it will be under 6h

Even if I allocate 10p a mile to depreciation & maintenance of adding mileage to my car that's still below £80 and the car can take 5 people Vs £170 for the trains and taxis to do the same trip

And I imagine shared long distance self drive taxis will be segregated separate seats so more private than a train
Which would allow you to sleep for most your trip something not really possible on a train


Re diesels being regulated too much. Well unregulate them or regulate them better. Pollution in sparsely populated motorway miles isn't a huge problem. Pollution per passenger per mile would be smarter. A shared oil car is more efficient than a plane or non shared oil car by about 80%.
If health is a concern then let people use diesel cars for long distance travel and close the train lines. You save billions in not having to sub the trains and billions in fuel taxes so these billions can be directly spend on improving healthcare that will make a difference rather than the marginal negligible heath of fossil fuel burning

Also shared BEVs in time can take the longer range markets
In fact how many trips are 200+ miles for diesels? Maybe sub 5%
So you can have BEVs of different sizes for the different use cases and diesel for the long range use case and still be 95% electricity miles and in time this long range can be taken over by extra long range high speed BEVs too. It's just not critical to cover this last 5% for a long time

GreatApe

Mixed transport something like

0-2 miles: walking................................................. Free
1-5 miles: Electric Scooters / bicycle....................50 miles per passenger per KWh
1-20 miles: Small two person non shared BEVs...5 miles per passenger per KWh
10-100 mile: Standard 4 seat BEVs part shared...10 miles per passenger oer KWh
100-1k miles. Shared Oil or BEV 10 seat...............20 miles per passenger per kWh
500-10,000 miles. Shared aircraft..........................1 miles per passenger per KWh

Trains and buses will die replaced by the above
Tube will survive but will need to become more cost competitive

Personal cars will still be around for at least 20-30 years post self drive software but they will get less and less common

JKenH

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4294575-ev-company-news-month-september-2019

EV Company News For The Month Of September 2019
Matt BohlsenOct. 2, 2019 10:30 AM ET

Welcome to the September 2019 edition of Electric Vehicle [EV] company news. September saw August global electric car sales down 9% YoY.

This month we witnessed the era of the truly affordable electric car arrive, as Renault K-ZE electric crossover launches in China for just ~US$9,389 (66,800 yuan). I suspect the battery will be an extra ~5-6,000; but still it would be a US$16,000 battery electric vehicle [BEV]. If it can be mass manufactured and sold at this price globally then we will truly see a very sharp rise in electric car sales.

We also heard talk of proposed new electric car targets in China, including 60% electric cars by 2035.

Global electric car sales as of end August 2019

Global electric car sales finished August 2019 with 158,000 sales for the month, down 9% on August 2018, with market share at 2.0% in August, and 2.3% YTD.

Of note 76% of all global electric car sales in August were 100% battery electric vehicles [BEVs], the balance being hybrids.

China electric car sales were 85,000 in August 2019, down 12% on August 2018, probably still as a result of the June 25 subsidy cut, as well as a general car market sales slowdown. Electric car market share in China for August was 4.1%, and 6.0% YTD.

Current subsidies in China were reduced by 20% in 2017 and have been reduced again in 2019 (took effect June 25, 2019), and are to be reduced 100% by 2021. China's Zero Emission Vehicle [ZEV] credit system was announced on September 28, 2017, and has now begun in 2019 with 10% of credits (12% in 2020) required from new energy vehicles [NEVs]. That translates to ~4-5% of EV sales as market share for 2019. It is currently under consideration to be increased (14% in 2021, 16% in 2022 and 18% in 2023). As to when China will ban ICE vehicles a recent report says proposed targets could be (subject to change): 20% e-cars by 2025, 40% by 2030: 60% by 2035 and China may announce this by end 2019.

Europe electric car sales were 35,000 in August 2019, 15% higher than in August 2018. Europe electric car market share was 3.3% in August, and 3.0% YTD. Norway still leads the world with an incredible 49% market share.

US electric car sales were not available in August 2019. US electric car market share is ~1.8% YTD in 2019.

Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.

Note: An acknowledgement to Jose Pontes of EV Sales and EV Volumes for his excellent work compiling all the electric car sales quoted above and below.

Global electric car sales by manufacturer for August 2019



Source: EV-Sales

Bloomberg's forecast annual electric vehicle sales - 10m by 2025, 28m by 2030, and 56m by 2040





Source: Bloomberg NEF 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook

ABrass

It's a complex picture. The Chinese subsidy regime got cut for short range PHEV, so they dropped like a rock compared to last year. The overall market dropped by around 8% year on year as well, so whilst EVs did drop the drop mirrors the drops in the rest of the world where PHEVs are falling out of fashion but BEVs are going up.

EricMears

almillar wrote: »

Safe then, short of a test drive, to use the analogy that the least regen acts like an ICE automatic, like I described on the Outlander.

Or indeed just as I described the VW e-Up!

EricMears

JKenH wrote: »

How much an electric car costs to charge depends on when and where you charge it but would I be right in assuming that the current cost of daytime charging an EV on a standard tariff at home would be around 4p and away from home 7p?

Paying 8.2p/kWh to charge at home on E7, my cost per mile works out at around 2.2p

Charging away from home is incredibly variable ! Sometimes you can find a charger that's free to use (hence 0.0 ppm ); more often they want around 40p/kWh - or near as dammit 5 times what I pay at home hence 11 pence/mile.

When I use my 2l diesel, I calculate its running costs at 10ppm on a long motorway trip or 15ppm pottering around town. Were I to compare costs of a motorway journey where I was paying to charge my BEV at MSAs or using diesel I'd bought at a supermarket before setting off, then the diesel would be more economical. However, in real life I tend to stop off en route at sites where I can charge gratis - hence costs for my recent trip Chesterfield - London - Dorset & home again worked out at less then £2 for 838 miles or 0.23 ppm

GreatApe

EricMears wrote: »

Paying 8.2p/kWh to charge at home on E7, my cost per mile works out at around 2.2p

Charging away from home is incredibly variable ! Sometimes you can find a charger that's free to use (hence 0.0 ppm ); more often they want around 40p/kWh - or near as dammit 5 times what I pay at home hence 11 pence/mile.

When I use my 2l diesel, I calculate its running costs at 10ppm on a long motorway trip or 15ppm pottering around town. Were I to compare costs of a motorway journey where I was paying to charge my BEV at MSAs or using diesel I'd bought at a supermarket before setting off, then the diesel would be more economical. However, in real life I tend to stop off en route at sites where I can charge gratis - hence costs for my recent trip Chesterfield - London - Dorset & home again worked out at less then £2 for 838 miles or 0.23 ppm

I am pro BEVs but the biggest cost of a car is typically the capital cost and depreciation and since almost all cars will depreciate to zero this means expensive EVs aren't as cheap as you'd like to paint

Also adding miles to your BEV has a cost
Try selling the same age same model same spec car with 20,000 miles on the clock Vs 220,000 miles on the clock and see if there is no price difference

1961Nick

EricMears wrote: »

Paying 8.2p/kWh to charge at home on E7, my cost per mile works out at around 2.2p

Charging away from home is incredibly variable ! Sometimes you can find a charger that's free to use (hence 0.0 ppm ); more often they want around 40p/kWh - or near as dammit 5 times what I pay at home hence 11 pence/mile.

When I use my 2l diesel, I calculate its running costs at 10ppm on a long motorway trip or 15ppm pottering around town. Were I to compare costs of a motorway journey where I was paying to charge my BEV at MSAs or using diesel I'd bought at a supermarket before setting off, then the diesel would be more economical. However, in real life I tend to stop off en route at sites where I can charge gratis - hence costs for my recent trip Chesterfield - London - Dorset & home again worked out at less then £2 for 838 miles or 0.23 ppm

A friend of mine drove his Tesla Model S to the south of France & back for £0 ... for some reason he doesn't have to pay to use a supercharger!

ABrass

Supercharger buse was free for the lifetime of older model S. Then it was free for the original owner, then either limited annual or single lump sum.

Initially superchargers were rare enough that they weren't a massive selling point. Then they became the single biggest advantage Tesla have over competitors even if you had to pay for them. So they stopped throwing it in for free.