Will Brexit happen?

Herzlos

movilogo wrote: »

But status quo is not really a fixed thing.

I don't think the status quo needs to be a fixed thing, despite the name. Our approach can remain consistent in a world that's changing. It's not a vote for more Europe, just to remain in as we are currently.

Thrugelmir

Theophile wrote: »

The council elections, with big gains for parties on a Remain manifesto (LD & Green) tell us the mood has changed.

More a sign that Labour is deeply divided. Plus there'll be increased support for environmental issues at a local level.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

More a sign that Labour is deeply divided.

I can only speak for myself, but Labour refusing to back a second referendum in all circumstances is why they didn't get my vote. Conservatives didn't get my vote because they are pushing on with brexit.

The parties that want to cancel brexit got all the support.

There are pockets of gammon still in the UK sure.

mayonnaise wrote: »

After the 2017 election, I clearly remember the usual suspects on here proclaiming +80% of the electorate voted for Leave supporting parties.

It's an idiotic suggestion that Labour are leave supporting, when their manifesto included retaining the benefits of the single market (which requires the four freedoms and according to Nigel "I'm not a racist but" Farage that isn't leaving the EU).

Labour just haven't come out and said they don't respect the referendum, which they should say because it doesn't deserve respect.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

It's an idiotic suggestion that Labour are leave supporting, when their manifesto included retaining the benefits of the single market

Um.......

Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European
Union.

No wonder Labour policy is in a muddle. I thought we were past the point of cherry picking.

The electorate must be wondering what they actually voted for.

kelevraz

I hope not

westernpromise

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think the status quo needs to be a fixed thing, despite the name. Our approach can remain consistent in a world that's changing. It's not a vote for more Europe, just to remain in as we are currently.

The dishonesty of that sort of claim was why I didn't vote Remain. There is no option "to remain in as we are currently". There is only an option to remain in an organisation that is bent on full political union.

I didn't vote Leave either because they were a bunch of liars who couldn't articulate any specific benefit from leaving.

setmefree2

I'm starting to believe Brexit will never happen.

A change of leader in the Tory party won't change the maths in the HoC. A change of leader won't bring any changes from the EU that make the WA acceptable to the ERG hardcore or the DUP.

So, a new Tory leader calls a GE to get the numbers required. But the creation of The Brexit Party is going to split the Tory vote without some pact between the two (and how are the Remain Tories going to cope with that?)


And. Remain voters now realise that they can only really vote for Remain parties and mostly this will mean voting Lib Dem. Which they will do in large numbers (remember many held their noses and voted for Corbyn).


So there will never be the numbers to leave in the HoC....


I guess Leave lost Brexit when the Tories called a GE in 2017.


In truth, I guess the referendum vote needed to have support in the 75% range to really stand a chance of getting through parliament.



Thoughts?

lisyloo

I think it’s revocation or no deal.
Personally I think the former is more likely but I’m aware I might be biased.

Getting agreement seems impossible and macro and the rest of the Eu won’t allow further extensions.

Make your mind up time.
I think we’d benefit from getting the uncertainty cleared up.

setmefree2

So, let's say Boris wins a Tory Leadership contest and becomes PM. He tries to renegotiate the WA and fails. We're at 31st October, he decides to go for a No Deal Brexit....then

A) the HoC gang up on him and pass legislation (like with Oliver Letwin and Yvonne Cooper) to out law a No Deal Brexit. The numbers are with them as Boris has no majority without the DUP and there will also be Tory Remainer rebels.


OR


Labour table a vote of no confidence and some Tories either abstain or vote with Labour and the government falls and there is a GE. Then the Leave vote gets split between Boris and Farage and the new parliament is probably more remain than the current one.



I don't see how Boris gets his no deal Brexit? The numbers are against Leave.


At the point where Boris realises he can't get a no deal through he will be packed off to Brussels to ask for an extension (oh the humiliation)...




Thoughts?

lisyloo

I don’t think b) will happen, because even the likes of Rees mogg would back TM in preference to seeing the Tory government fail.

No deal won’t be allowed, an extension won’t be allowed.
I can only see us revoking,