Will Brexit happen?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

Malthusian said:

The main opinion article in The Times today called for Brexit to be cancelled as a result of coronavirus (well, suspended indefinitely, but same thing). Is the taboo on discussing this now being lifted?

Bring it forward I'd say.

As we're getting used to closed borders, empty shelves and mass redundancies now anyway.

Definitely, doing it now means you can hide all of the damage under Coronavirus instead of Brexit. This is going to shatter industries anyway.

Europes high dependence on tourism for one. 

Our tourism industry is going to suffer pretty badly too. We might fare a bit better because the weak GBP makes us seem cheaper, though.

France has at least assured the people that businesses won't be allowed to fail, whilst the UK is telling them to stay open and telling the customers to avoid them. I can't see how we'll do better out of it than they will.

John_Doe

Thrugelmir said:

John_Doe said:

Herzlos said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

Malthusian said:

The main opinion article in The Times today called for Brexit to be cancelled as a result of coronavirus (well, suspended indefinitely, but same thing). Is the taboo on discussing this now being lifted?

Bring it forward I'd say.

As we're getting used to closed borders, empty shelves and mass redundancies now anyway.

Definitely, doing it now means you can hide all of the damage under Coronavirus instead of Brexit. This is going to shatter industries anyway.

It stands a pretty good chance of shattering the EU if not just the Euro.

At what cost will the ECB prop up Italy? 

And Spain too, plus whoever might be next.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos said:

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

Malthusian said:

The main opinion article in The Times today called for Brexit to be cancelled as a result of coronavirus (well, suspended indefinitely, but same thing). Is the taboo on discussing this now being lifted?

Bring it forward I'd say.

As we're getting used to closed borders, empty shelves and mass redundancies now anyway.

Definitely, doing it now means you can hide all of the damage under Coronavirus instead of Brexit. This is going to shatter industries anyway.

Europes high dependence on tourism for one. 

Our tourism industry is going to suffer pretty badly too. We might fare a bit better because the weak GBP makes us seem cheaper, though.

France has at least assured the people that businesses won't be allowed to fail, whilst the UK is telling them to stay open and telling the customers to avoid them. I can't see how we'll do better out of it than they will.

We spend more abroad than we take from visitors. Cash retained in the local economy is more beneficial to all in terms of recovery. Travel is going to be curtailed one suspects for some time
Chancellor this evening a comprehensive package of measures that kick in next week. Far above France's assurances. Not having your own Cenral Bank makes matters more complex. 

John_Doe

Herzlos said:

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

Malthusian said:

The main opinion article in The Times today called for Brexit to be cancelled as a result of coronavirus (well, suspended indefinitely, but same thing). Is the taboo on discussing this now being lifted?

Bring it forward I'd say.

As we're getting used to closed borders, empty shelves and mass redundancies now anyway.

Definitely, doing it now means you can hide all of the damage under Coronavirus instead of Brexit. This is going to shatter industries anyway.

Europes high dependence on tourism for one. 

Our tourism industry is going to suffer pretty badly too. We might fare a bit better because the weak GBP makes us seem cheaper, though.

France has at least assured the people that businesses won't be allowed to fail, whilst the UK is telling them to stay open and telling the customers to avoid them. I can't see how we'll do better out of it than they will.

French words mean nothing, it's actions that count.
To that end Rishi Sunak's announcement of a £330 billion support package goes way beyond such mere words - plus there's the promise that the government will do more if it is needed.
Maybe that will enlighten you.

Herzlos

Wait, Macrons words mean nothing but Sunaks are fine? I know which one I trust more.

Yup we spend more abroad than we take in visitors, so potentially if we were to vacation in the UK the UK hospitality industry would do fine... except the Governments advice will kill a lot of them off - telling them to stay open whilst telling the visitors to stay away will force them to close voluntarily and not get any help, it'll also seriously hurt consumer confidence. Any hospitality and entertainment venues that can weather this storm will likely do pretty well after the recovery, but the ones that won't aren't going to come back for years.

Moe_The_Bartender

Thrugelmir said:

John_Doe said:

Herzlos said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

Malthusian said:

The main opinion article in The Times today called for Brexit to be cancelled as a result of coronavirus (well, suspended indefinitely, but same thing). Is the taboo on discussing this now being lifted?

Bring it forward I'd say.

As we're getting used to closed borders, empty shelves and mass redundancies now anyway.

Definitely, doing it now means you can hide all of the damage under Coronavirus instead of Brexit. This is going to shatter industries anyway.

It stands a pretty good chance of shattering the EU if not just the Euro.

At what cost will the ECB prop up Italy? 

If you believe Christine Lagarde, it's not her job to close the spread in sovereign debt markets. Actually the ECB is out of ammunition and doesn’t have the ability to bail out any economy larger than Malta.

adindas

Malthusian said:

Very true, regardless of how the data pans out. Conversely, what is happening on the Continent kind of spoils the days of wine and roses fantasy. Whatever happened to going anywhere we wanted thanks to our red passports? Remainers have spent the last three years lamenting the loss of a right that never existed.

This is what George Osborne and his cronies said during the Brexit Champaign,

UK GDP would have dropped by 1.2 percent by mid 2018

Goldman Sachs’ note, which declared the British economy would go into recession by early 2017. (Goldman had donated £500,000 to the Remain campaign.) Credit Suisse predicted a 1pc fall in GDP and Nomura a 1.3pc fall.

A dossier published by the Treasury in the run up to the referendum said a vote to leave “would cause an immediate and profound economic shock” which would “push the UK into recession”. In reality, the UK’s GDP is now 3.3 per cent higher than it was two years ago.

The Treasury also claimed unemployment ‘would increase by around 500,000’ in the wake of a Brexit vote.

The US president Obama: UK will be back in the queu for trade deal with the US

Could anyone point out which one of the above gloomy prediction is true ?

Not to mention all of the gloomy prediction from the IMF under "Christine Lagarde" which make this institution as a laughing stock due to acknowledging of getting it wrong many times during the Brexit Champaign and shortly after the Brexit vote.

This is now what IMF without Christine Legarde has said:

The UK economy outpace the struggling eurozone in the first two years after Brexit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted for the first time..

UK economy will outpace eurozone for first two years after Brexit, IMF predicts

Of course, there will be adjustment due to corona virus pandemic, but so is the impact on the EU which must be worse due to te nature of this pandemic across the EU countries.

Although all of this doomsday, armageddon, skyfall prediction, The people have voted to leave the EU, not once but twice (e.g. Referendum and the last GE) to leave the EU even under the WORST economics prediction, the parliament have voted to leave the EU. It is very easy to see that the main is not just about economic but mainly political reason.

Should the EU remain as EEC (pure economic) rather than EU (political and economic integration) I fully believe vast majority of people will be happy to stay in the EU. Just wait until they start realising their ambition in building the EU army, taking tax directly from people, having their own police.

Una_Voidable

Yanis Varoufakis on Europe and Covid-19:

"If there is one European body that has consistently demonstrated its lack of fitness for managing economic crises, it is the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers. True to form, it will respond to the COVID-19 crisis with heroic announcements heralding impressive numbers that disguise the irrelevance and timidity of the agreed policies."

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurogroup-finance-ministers-misunderstand-covid19-crisis-by-yanis-varoufakis-2020-03

Arklight

Brexit transition delayed, indefinitely.

Brexit cancelled, permanently.

50Twuncle

Arklight said:

Brexit transition delayed, indefinitely.

Brexit cancelled, permanently.

From what source ?