Will Brexit happen?

movilogo

If UK would not have left EU by now, remainers would have used Coronavirus execuse to move the goal post again.
Now they will possibly try to extend the transition period.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos said:

And that makes the French more likely to adhere to it, how? There's already a camp in Calais of which a lot of the migrants are leaking across the border. They could use their domestic issues to justify pulling most of the policing away from border.

Macron has plenty of domestic disquiet to contend with without creating more. 

Moe_The_Bartender

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

And that makes the French more likely to adhere to it, how? There's already a camp in Calais of which a lot of the migrants are leaking across the border. They could use their domestic issues to justify pulling most of the policing away from border.

Macron has plenty of domestic disquiet to contend with without creating more. 

Indeed. He had to pass his pension reforms by using his presidential edict as he could not get support from his allies. Big demonstrations are planned for Paris, Marseilles, Lyon and Toulouse. I don’t like Macron but he does have a point that having a large number of his workforce retiring at 50 is unsustainable. The French don’t seem to see it that way as they always think that the government has money stashed away to pay for their pensions.

Theophile

Moe_The_Bartender said:

The Le Touquet Accord is actually a treaty and as the EU keep reminding us, treaties are inviolable.

Inviolable? Probably.

But a moot point as the Treaty can be terminated by any of the parties, giving correct notice.

And anyone who thinks that France will continue to play holding station for UK-bound migrants, and that France will continue to allow UK border control on its territory post-brexit is seriously deluded.

The border will move to the UK side of the channel. And so will the migrant camps. Another brexit dividend.

Thrugelmir

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

And that makes the French more likely to adhere to it, how? There's already a camp in Calais of which a lot of the migrants are leaking across the border. They could use their domestic issues to justify pulling most of the policing away from border.

Macron has plenty of domestic disquiet to contend with without creating more. 

Indeed. He had to pass his pension reforms by using his presidential edict as he could not get support from his allies. Big demonstrations are planned for Paris, Marseilles, Lyon and Toulouse. I don’t like Macron but he does have a point that having a large number of his workforce retiring at 50 is unsustainable. The French don’t seem to see it that way as they always think that the government has money stashed away to pay for their pensions.

Corbyn and RLB would be perfect for french politics. 

Moe_The_Bartender

Theophile said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

The Le Touquet Accord is actually a treaty and as the EU keep reminding us, treaties are inviolable.

The border will move to the UK side of the channel. And so will the migrant camps. Another brexit dividend.

Yeah, right. This wouldn’t be possible if we had remained in the EU. 

Sailtheworld

We'll show 'em in Brussels as we head into a brave new World where we agree trade deals with the long queue of countries waiting in eager anticipation.

The government has estimated a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States would boost the UK economy by 0.16% over the next 15 years.

What a joke. You lot were duped.

Moe_The_Bartender

Sailtheworld said:

We'll show 'em in Brussels as we head into a brave new World where we agree trade deals with the long queue of countries waiting in eager anticipation.

The government has estimated a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States would boost the UK economy by 0.16% over the next 15 years.

What a joke. You lot were duped.

The Guardian are trying to claim that a "comprehensive" trade deal will be worth just 0.16% growth. Therefore there's effectively no benefit to having a US trade deal (apparently).

However, not having one with the EU will apparently be catastrophic. So why is it pretty much worthless to have a comprehensive trade deal with the worlds largest economy, but critical and lucrative to have one with the worlds third largest bloc?

LHW99

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

And that makes the French more likely to adhere to it, how? There's already a camp in Calais of which a lot of the migrants are leaking across the border. They could use their domestic issues to justify pulling most of the policing away from border.

Macron has plenty of domestic disquiet to contend with without creating more. 

Indeed. He had to pass his pension reforms by using his presidential edict as he could not get support from his allies. Big demonstrations are planned for Paris, Marseilles, Lyon and Toulouse. I don’t like Macron but he does have a point that having a large number of his workforce retiring at 50 is unsustainable. The French don’t seem to see it that way as they always think that the government has money stashed away to pay for their pensions.

That should help the virus situation in France .

Thrugelmir

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Sailtheworld said:

We'll show 'em in Brussels as we head into a brave new World where we agree trade deals with the long queue of countries waiting in eager anticipation.

The government has estimated a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States would boost the UK economy by 0.16% over the next 15 years.

What a joke. You lot were duped.

The Guardian are trying to claim that a "comprehensive" trade deal will be worth just 0.16% growth. Therefore there's effectively no benefit to having a US trade deal (apparently).

However, not having one with the EU will apparently be catastrophic. So why is it pretty much worthless to have a comprehensive trade deal with the worlds largest economy, but critical and lucrative to have one with the worlds third largest bloc?

We net import £60 billion from the EU. The UK is an attractive market to sell into.