Will Brexit happen?

Arklight

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Enterprise_1701C said:

But they don't have to let someone else control their fisheries, they don't have to agree not to compete with the eu, and why should we follow their rules on state aid FGS, they don't even follow them themselves!  Our "workers rights" are better than a eu ones.  And having the eu police what we do is rather like someone in Switzerland telling someone in the US that they should not do X.  And the idea of Gibraltar not being included in the main talks is just petty, the people of Gibraltar voted to remain British.  We do not see Spain handing back any of their overseas territories.

Don’t forget they also chucked in a clause about repatriation of illegally obtained artefacts. That’ll teach the French when they have to hand back the Venus de Milo.

Then for good measure they chuck in an irrelevance about geographical proximity. Looks like they’re not really interested in a deal. I wonder what the Germans think of that.

Do you seriously think that that will be applied within the EU? It will apply to us. Not them. 

adindas

Herzloz Write

"Nah I'll wait until the negotiations start to see who actually cracks.

I'm also not convinced we're being punished, itsjust that since we're not in the EU anymore it has no obligation to care about us. This is, I believe, exactly what we voted for."

Well at least you have got it many times wrong in the past. What make you thing you will get it right this time. In the past you mentioned that if the UK want to walk away "it was a bluff" at least you could see the tone from the EU is now changing compare it to when the negotiation was under Theresa May, the worst negotiator, the worst prime minister in the modern British History.

If you have got it wrong many times in the past what make you thing you will get it right this time.

Many people disgaree the UK is bluffing when threaten to walk away from negotiations. What the UK is doing is what most sensible peole will do in the negotiation. Instead the EU is a bluff by keep refering to single market. Many people in the UK has said "you go to hell with your singe market" the UK is fine under WTO trade and it has been spelled out by the government.

Walk away Boris!’ PM urged to call EU’s bluff over no deal Brexit threat

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1241014/Brexit-news-eu-trade-talks-deal-boris-johnson-von-der-Leyen

Britons outraged as Boris urged to walk away from talks after EU’s threat -‘Never submit!’

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1244112/brexit-news-latest-brexit-deal-negotiations-boris-johnson-david-frost-brussels

Herzloz Write

"Everyone else follows the EU rules to trade with them to whatever level of trade freedom they have, why should we be special?

If we want to be in the single market, we follow single market rules. If we don't want to follow those rules then we need to step back a level until we get to a point we're happy. That's going to involve customs checks."

This is really an insult to people intelligent.
Where have you been ?? the UK does not want access to single market. the UK want a canada style trade. Keep in mind.

- The EU want the UK under ECJ jurisdiction, Canada does not bow to ECJ

- the EU want access to UK fishing water, Canada does not have this agreement.

- The Uk has been a seconfd (or third) net contributor to the EU coffer for a few decade. Canada never contribute to the EU budget. So, the UK shoukd get a preferential treatment.

- There are many other things, etv

Which organisation punish their members for leaving. Offhand I could only think a few  exist in this world. Mafioso type organisations, Secret sect organisation for their member undermining order, ISIS/DAESH.

Moe_The_Bartender

Arklight said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Herzlos said:

Nah I'll wait until the negotiations start to see who actually cracks.

I'm also not convinced we're being punished, itsjust that since we're not in the EU anymore it has no obligation to care about us. This is, I believe, exactly what we voted for.

We’ll only get punished if we allow it to happen. All the UK is doing is to approach the negotiations in exactly the same way as any other independent sovereign state. If that leads to an agreement, that’s fine. If it doesn’t, that’s fine too.

If you approach someone asking for a deal, then that is because you want a deal. Having a deal is to your advantage. Not having a deal is to your detriment.

The UK is asking the EU for a deal. Not the other way around. 

Think about what that means. 

Not so. Article 50 required that both sides should reach an agreement. The Political Declaration, if it means anything at all, does the same. Having a deal or not works both ways. I think Article 8 may also be relevant.

Moe_The_Bartender

Arklight said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Enterprise_1701C said:

But they don't have to let someone else control their fisheries, they don't have to agree not to compete with the eu, and why should we follow their rules on state aid FGS, they don't even follow them themselves!  Our "workers rights" are better than a eu ones.  And having the eu police what we do is rather like someone in Switzerland telling someone in the US that they should not do X.  And the idea of Gibraltar not being included in the main talks is just petty, the people of Gibraltar voted to remain British.  We do not see Spain handing back any of their overseas territories.

Don’t forget they also chucked in a clause about repatriation of illegally obtained artefacts. That’ll teach the French when they have to hand back the Venus de Milo.

Then for good measure they chuck in an irrelevance about geographical proximity. Looks like they’re not really interested in a deal. I wonder what the Germans think of that.

Do you seriously think that that will be applied within the EU? It will apply to us. Not them. 

Nah. It won’t apply to anyone. There’s no reason to include it and there’s no reason to discuss it.

Herzlos

I'd be all for a Canada deal (not the Canada +++ we wanted), but I'm not sure what it'd do to our financial sector?

Thrugelmir

Arklight said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Herzlos said:

Nah I'll wait until the negotiations start to see who actually cracks.

I'm also not convinced we're being punished, itsjust that since we're not in the EU anymore it has no obligation to care about us. This is, I believe, exactly what we voted for.

We’ll only get punished if we allow it to happen. All the UK is doing is to approach the negotiations in exactly the same way as any other independent sovereign state. If that leads to an agreement, that’s fine. If it doesn’t, that’s fine too.

The UK is asking the EU for a deal. Not the other way around. 

Try telling that to European business owners and their employees. The political project comes before the very people that the EU purports to represent. 

adindas

Herzlos said:

I'd be all for a Canada deal (not the Canada +++ we wanted), but I'm not sure what it'd do to our financial sector?

Because it is not needed. The UK is just asking Canada style trade agreement. Financial Service does not need to be included in the negotiation. Also almost certain the EU wanted to include ECJ to have jurisdiction on the UK and "many" other conditions to include this service in the negotiations.

The UK financial services are larger than all EU financial services combined. Brick and Mortal just account a tiny percentage of the UK financial services. Majority are under investment arm which by nature are borderless. The key people in business around the globe could raise capital from the UK financial market while doing holiday in caribbean.

Just think if the EU dare to impose sanction similar to what they have done to Switzerland. If the UK retaliate by removing all of the EU Blue chip stocks from the UK financial market, the EU industries will cripple. You could imagine if in the future when the UK and US collaborate in the financial market to sanction the EU industries. It will suffocate the EU businesses and just a matter of time before they are running out of oxygen.

Now the UK just want a Canada style agreement and the response from the EU is that the UK could only have a Canada Style Agreement if it agrees with:

- The level Playing field nonsense with ECJ to have jurisdiction in the UK. Canada does not bow to ECJ

- The EU want access to UK fishing water; Canada does not have this agreement. Why the EU does not offer  a fair deal for the UK people to have the same free access to the France vineyards and / or other agricutural products of the EU countries in return to this demand ??

- The UK has been the second (or third) net contributor to the EU coffer for a few decades. Canada never contribute to the EU budget.

- The UK import EU goods from the EU more than it sells to the EU. The UK trade deficit in goods with the EU is much larger than Canada. In 2018 alone, UK exports to the EU were just £291 billion while the UK imports from the EU were £357 billion.

Based on this, the UK should get a better deal than Canada with the same condition imposed to Canada (e.g no ECJ jurisdcition, no access to the UK water)

In the past you said that EU has offered the UK any trade model that has been in place. Now do you want to admit that you get it wrong again and apologise at least ten times in this forum for misleading people??

The only reasonable conclusion that the EU refuse to grant the UK a Canada style agreement with the same condition with Canada is because of insecurity and afraid of competition. When in the near future the UK economy is triumph that will be the end of the EU.

Which organisation punish their members for leaving. Offhand I could only think a few exist in this world. Mafioso type organisations, Secret sect organisation for their member undermining order, ISIS/DAESH.

Thrugelmir

Turkey seems to have choosen it's moment to open their borders and let migrants out.  With Brexit, the Budget and the virus already to contend with. This action will undoubtably cause further friction between member states. Neither Marcron or Merkel are particulatly strong domestically either. As they say. When it rains it pours. 

Arklight

adindas said:

Herzlos said:

I'd be all for a Canada deal (not the Canada +++ we wanted), but I'm not sure what it'd do to our financial sector?

Because it is not needed. The UK is just asking Canada style trade agreement. Financial Service does not need to be included in the negotiation. Also almost certain the EU wanted to include ECJ to have jurisdiction on the UK and "many" other conditions to include this service in the negotiations.

The UK financial services are larger than all EU financial services combined. Brick and Mortal just account a tiny percentage of the UK financial services. Majority are under investment arm which by nature are borderless. The key people in business around the globe could raise capital from the UK financial market while doing holiday in caribbean.

Just think if the EU dare to impose sanction similar to what they have done to Switzerland. If the UK retaliate by removing all of the EU Blue chip stocks from the UK financial market, the EU industries will cripple. You could imagine if in the future when the UK and US collaborate in the financial market to sanction the EU industries. It will suffocate the EU businesses and just a matter of time before they are running out of oxygen.

Now the UK just want a Canada style agreement and the response from the EU is that the UK could only have a Canada Style Agreement if it agrees with:

- The level Playing field nonsense with ECJ to have jurisdiction in the UK. Canada does not bow to ECJ

- The EU want access to UK fishing water; Canada does not have this agreement. Why the EU does not offer  a fair deal for the UK people to have the same free access to the France vineyards and / or other agricutural products of the EU countries in return to this demand ??

- The UK has been the second (or third) net contributor to the EU coffer for a few decades. Canada never contribute to the EU budget.

- The UK import EU goods from the EU more than it sells to the EU. The UK trade deficit in goods with the EU is much larger than Canada. In 2018 alone, UK exports to the EU were just £291 billion while the UK imports from the EU were £357 billion.

Based on this, the UK should get a better deal than Canada with the same condition imposed to Canada (e.g no ECJ jurisdcition, no access to the UK water)

In the past you said that EU has offered the UK any trade model that has been in place. Now do you want to admit that you get it wrong again and apologise at least ten times in this forum for misleading people??

The only reasonable conclusion that the EU refuse to grant the UK a Canada style agreement with the same condition with Canada is because of insecurity and afraid of competition. When in the near future the UK economy is triumph that will be the end of the EU.

Which organisation punish their members for leaving. Offhand I could only think a few exist in this world. Mafioso type organisations, Secret sect organisation for their member undermining order, ISIS/DAESH.

Oh, stop moaning. You have made your bed and now you have to lie in it. You're fundamentally complaining that you've poked a wasps nest, the wasps are cross and stinging you, and it never occurred to you, so you are completely unprepared. 

The UK is just-another-country to the EU, now. The Europeans will put their own interests - well - before ours. And their citizens have a government with massively more clout than ours do.

Fran_Klee

Arklight said:

The UK is just-another-country to the EU, now. The Europeans will put their own interests - well - before ours. And their citizens have a government with massively more clout than ours do.

You're only just realising that most of the world is "just another country to the EU" are you? 
Every single country outside the EU "club" is "just another country to the EU" - meaning most of planet Earth.
Each and every nation on the planet puts their own country first. There is absolutely nothing unusual in that.
But please, tell us all which EU country's leader has "massively more clout" than Boris does with ours? This we must hear. 

The failed Merkel in a split Germany perhaps, who has already been succeeded by Kramp-Karrenbauer as party leader - and even she has announced her resignation. The race for next Chancellor is already interesting thanks to the factions in Germany and an AfD Chancellor is looking highly possible.
How about Italy then? Who can't even decide from one week to the next if the "partnership" will continue to keep the country governed.
Spain, where the weak government with  resulting splits is becoming as pronounced as elsewhere in EU-land thanks at least in part to the EU-wide trend supporting populism?
France with the hated Macron and his "amateur government" where even now there is huge defiance at his reforms, most recently in French pensions.
And there are your major EU economies; what next? 

Or did you mean the EU blunderers like von der Leyen, Charles, and Sassoli?
When you've finished saying "who" (    ) you might understand the lack of international clout there. Besides which they're a little busy just now. Budget fighting aside, they're seeing that Turkey has opened the floodgates for millions more migrants/refugees - and we all know what happened last time.

 So forgive me (and any sensible person) when I say that whatever clout the EU has on the global scene is of absolutely zero relevance compared to the problems they are facing right now.
Add into the mix a strong UK government (like it or not Arklight, with the majority it holds in the commons it is strong) and the increasingly-obvious evidence that the UK holds at least a few "aces" with which to negotiate and that makes it a great time for the UK to barter with the EU.

It doesn't mean that there will be a deal, but it certainly does mean that "negotiations" won't be as one-sided as some might have thought.