Will Brexit happen?

adindas

Arklight said:

adindas said:

Herzlos said:

I'd be all for a Canada deal (not the Canada +++ we wanted), but I'm not sure what it'd do to our financial sector?

Because it is not needed. The UK is just asking Canada style trade agreement. Financial Service does not need to be included in the negotiation. Also almost certain the EU wanted to include ECJ to have jurisdiction on the UK and "many" other conditions to include this service in the negotiations.

The UK financial services are larger than all EU financial services combined. Brick and Mortal just account a tiny percentage of the UK financial services. Majority are under investment arm which by nature are borderless. The key people in business around the globe could raise capital from the UK financial market while doing holiday in caribbean.

Just think if the EU dare to impose sanction similar to what they have done to Switzerland. If the UK retaliate by removing all of the EU Blue chip stocks from the UK financial market, the EU industries will cripple. You could imagine if in the future when the UK and US collaborate in the financial market to sanction the EU industries. It will suffocate the EU businesses and just a matter of time before they are running out of oxygen.

Now the UK just want a Canada style agreement and the response from the EU is that the UK could only have a Canada Style Agreement if it agrees with:

- The level Playing field nonsense with ECJ to have jurisdiction in the UK. Canada does not bow to ECJ

- The EU want access to UK fishing water; Canada does not have this agreement. Why the EU does not offer  a fair deal for the UK people to have the same free access to the France vineyards and / or other agricutural products of the EU countries in return to this demand ??

- The UK has been the second (or third) net contributor to the EU coffer for a few decades. Canada never contribute to the EU budget.

- The UK import EU goods from the EU more than it sells to the EU. The UK trade deficit in goods with the EU is much larger than Canada. In 2018 alone, UK exports to the EU were just £291 billion while the UK imports from the EU were £357 billion.

Based on this, the UK should get a better deal than Canada with the same condition imposed to Canada (e.g no ECJ jurisdcition, no access to the UK water)

In the past you said that EU has offered the UK any trade model that has been in place. Now do you want to admit that you get it wrong again and apologise at least ten times in this forum for misleading people??

The only reasonable conclusion that the EU refuse to grant the UK a Canada style agreement with the same condition with Canada is because of insecurity and afraid of competition. When in the near future the UK economy is triumph that will be the end of the EU.

Which organisation punish their members for leaving. Offhand I could only think a few exist in this world. Mafioso type organisations, Secret sect organisation for their member undermining order, ISIS/DAESH.

Oh, stop moaning. You have made your bed and now you have to lie in it. You're fundamentally complaining that you've poked a wasps nest, the wasps are cross and stinging you, and it never occurred to you, so you are completely unprepared. 

The UK is just-another-country to the EU, now. The Europeans will put their own interests - well - before ours. And their citizens have a government with massively more clout than ours do.

Arklight said:

adindas said:

Herzlos said:

I'd be all for a Canada deal (not the Canada +++ we wanted), but I'm not sure what it'd do to our financial sector?

Because it is not needed. The UK is just asking Canada style trade agreement. Financial Service does not need to be included in the negotiation. Also almost certain the EU wanted to include ECJ to have jurisdiction on the UK and "many" other conditions to include this service in the negotiations.

The UK financial services are larger than all EU financial services combined. Brick and Mortal just account a tiny percentage of the UK financial services. Majority are under investment arm which by nature are borderless. The key people in business around the globe could raise capital from the UK financial market while doing holiday in caribbean.

Just think if the EU dare to impose sanction similar to what they have done to Switzerland. If the UK retaliate by removing all of the EU Blue chip stocks from the UK financial market, the EU industries will cripple. You could imagine if in the future when the UK and US collaborate in the financial market to sanction the EU industries. It will suffocate the EU businesses and just a matter of time before they are running out of oxygen.

Now the UK just want a Canada style agreement and the response from the EU is that the UK could only have a Canada Style Agreement if it agrees with:

- The level Playing field nonsense with ECJ to have jurisdiction in the UK. Canada does not bow to ECJ

- The EU want access to UK fishing water; Canada does not have this agreement. Why the EU does not offer  a fair deal for the UK people to have the same free access to the France vineyards and / or other agricutural products of the EU countries in return to this demand ??

- The UK has been the second (or third) net contributor to the EU coffer for a few decades. Canada never contribute to the EU budget.

- The UK import EU goods from the EU more than it sells to the EU. The UK trade deficit in goods with the EU is much larger than Canada. In 2018 alone, UK exports to the EU were just £291 billion while the UK imports from the EU were £357 billion.

Based on this, the UK should get a better deal than Canada with the same condition imposed to Canada (e.g no ECJ jurisdcition, no access to the UK water)

In the past you said that EU has offered the UK any trade model that has been in place. Now do you want to admit that you get it wrong again and apologise at least ten times in this forum for misleading people??

The only reasonable conclusion that the EU refuse to grant the UK a Canada style agreement with the same condition with Canada is because of insecurity and afraid of competition. When in the near future the UK economy is triumph that will be the end of the EU.

Which organisation punish their members for leaving. Offhand I could only think a few exist in this world. Mafioso type organisations, Secret sect organisation for their member undermining order, ISIS/DAESH.

Oh, stop moaning. You have made your bed and now you have to lie in it. You're fundamentally complaining that you've poked a wasps nest, the wasps are cross and stinging you, and it never occurred to you, so you are completely unprepared. 

The UK is just-another-country to the EU, now. The Europeans will put their own interests - well - before ours. And their citizens have a government with massively more clout than ours do.

Who is moaning. I am just highlighting the statement made by Herzloz in MSE about the Canada Style Agreement, which is woefully inaccurate. It is either Herzloz know very little about te EU or the EU is lying.

It is commonly accepted the one wanted to atill fight to remain when in fact the UK has left the EU is the one who is moaning.  That is where the term “remoaning” is coming from. Whether you like it or not the UK has left the EU.

Which countries in the EU are better prepared than the UK for a no-deal Brexit. Now the EU is even more scared of a no deal Brexit than the UK. They keep asking the UK to extend the transition period without the UK is asking for it It is entirely a different attitude when the negotiation was under Theresa May.

If you could find a link what other EU countries has done in the scale of the UK has done please post it here.

Herzlos

What's inaccurate about my Canada statement? That it doesn't include finance?

The EU has a few financial hubs desperate to steal business from London, EU companies being dropped from LSE will just move their stock to another exchange (which I've seen happen). Will our finance industries survive? I don't have your optimism.

But like I said; I'm happy for us to take a deal without finance as long as we're honest about what that means. 

Herzlos

Thrugelmir said:

Turkey seems to have choosen it's moment to open their borders and let migrants out.  With Brexit, the Budget and the virus already to contend with. This action will undoubtably cause further friction between member states. Neither Marcron or Merkel are particulatly strong domestically either. As they say. When it rains it pours. 

A cunning move by Erdogan that'll cause chaos.
Here's a thought though; Europe wants these refugees out of Europe, and we're not in Europe. So what's to stop the EU busing them all to Calais and letting them out the other side?

Thrugelmir

Didn't realise that Brussels runs a coach operation. Helps explain where our money went. 

Moe_The_Bartender

Herzlos said:

Thrugelmir said:

Turkey seems to have choosen it's moment to open their borders and let migrants out.  With Brexit, the Budget and the virus already to contend with. This action will undoubtably cause further friction between member states. Neither Marcron or Merkel are particulatly strong domestically either. As they say. When it rains it pours. 

A cunning move by Erdogan that'll cause chaos.
Here's a thought though; Europe wants these refugees out of Europe, and we're not in Europe. So what's to stop the EU busing them all to Calais and letting them out the other side?

I assume you know that Turkish troops have ferried thousands of migrants across the Evros River near Kastanies in Thrace. Erdogan says that if these people want to enter the EU, it’s not his job to stop them. Many of them have tried to cross illegally into Greece and Greek troops have used tear gas to stop them. When they turned back, Turkish troops used tear gas to prevent them re-entering Turkey.

Chaos indeed. 

BTW. We are in Europe, just not in the EU. How many times do you need reminding that the two are not the same? And it’s the Le Touquet accord which prevents France sending illegals to the UK.

Herzlos

Fair point, though we know how the French view rules.

Back to the deal; I think the origins stuff could work; custom/tariff free trade for everything that's 100% EU or UK made to EU standards, and checks for everything else. It'd let us import cheaper stuff but protect the EU from the lower standard stuff. It'd involve random checks for the former but that shouldn't be too onerous, though it still means an Irish border somewhere.

I'm certainly warming to the idea of Brexit a bit. Maybe we can pull something spectacular off here.

Enterprise_1701C

What I find amusing at the moment is that the eu are up in arms because Boris is not including security in the talks.  Don't they know they can't cherry-pick!

As for not allowing us to be in a position to compete with the eu, well, that is just petty.  If they are such a brilliant country then they should be able to tolerate a bit of competition.

Herzlos

They are fine with us competing, but they won't give us superior market access whilst allowing us to undercut the rest of the EU - it's main duty is to protect the rest of the EU.

In the same way you'd be up in arms if Scotland left the UK but wanted full access whilst lowering standards to a point that England can't afford to compete.

Moe_The_Bartender

Herzlos said:

Fair point, though we know how the French view rules.

The Le Touquet Accord is actually a treaty and as the EU keep reminding us, treaties are inviolable.

Herzlos

And that makes the French more likely to adhere to it, how? There's already a camp in Calais of which a lot of the migrants are leaking across the border. They could use their domestic issues to justify pulling most of the policing away from border.