Will Brexit happen?

westernpromise

Takedap wrote: »

Yes but it was also claimed by Leave that it wouldn't.

Well, that's how campaigns work. Each side outlines the benefits of supporting them and the pitfalls of supporting the other side. You have no idea whether people voted Leave because they accepted Leave arguments, or because they discounted Remain arguments. You have absolutely no idea. Nobody does.

The Remain claim, however, is that "we" didn't know what leaving entailed and so voted in ignorance. I've shown that this is false. Every household in the country got that leaflet which outlined fairly accurately what would eventuate if a Remain government were tasked with implementing a Leave result.

So "we" knew all right. The issue is that having lost the referendum, Remain now wants to argue that Leave voters didn't know after all (they did), or didn't understand (on no evidence). Now they do, goes the argument, we should re-run the referendum and this time Remain's arguments should be allowed to win.

The obvious problem with this is not that it's Remainers saying this because they lost. It's not even that it's entirely possible the voters know - but don't care - that Leaving will be disruptive. The problem is that if this argument to re-run the referendum were to prevail, a Remain result is undermined by it in advance. Leave could argue, wholly consistently, that the second referendum result should also be overturned because we never tried Leaving and therefore the stupid voters didn't understand how beneficial it would be.

Conina

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Most leavers thought that was nothing more than project fear propaganda disgustingly paid for by the taxpayer and demonstrating the impartiality of the government at the time.

Leavers didn't believe a word of it. However as you ably demonstrate circumstances have changed and they now have new information which shows they were wrong to dismiss such warnings out of hand.

I'd love to know why you think voters dismissed such warnings instead of the far more likely reality which is that voters still thought them preferable to remaining in the EU, especially since all accepted evidence is suggesting that there has been no discernible shift in voters intentions between the referendum and now.

Sailtheworld

westernpromise wrote: »

So you know what they all thought? That's clever, how are you doing that?

I took a guess from what their thought leaders were telling them to think. How bad's your memory that you don't remember exactly what a froth this leaflet caused?

Mr Farage said the leaflet and website were “full of lies” and argued it was “outrageous” the Government was “wasting millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money to tell us what to think”.

"I think it is deeply disappointing that the government is going to spend taxpayers' money in a bid to distract the media headlines away from the allegations of offshore banks that have dogged the prime minister," Robert Oxley, a Vote Leave spokesman, said.

Full of lies but, as you suggested yourself, provided quite an accurate warning of what came to pass.

Conina

Tromking wrote: »

Cummings suggests to doorstepping journalists that they get out of London and stop listening to 'rich remainers'. Love the man.

:T
I've often thought similar thoughts regarding some hardcore remainers and their reliance on these forums.

It amuses me of some (we all know who they are by now, surely) that profess their supposed superior intelligence and alleged superior status and yet they appear on these forums all day, all evening and sometimes even all night; well I'm sure we can all envisage that great remainer Richard Branson just for example moonlighting on MSE to secretly voice his opinions, can't we? :rotfl:

Not a chance.

He's sensible and using his time rather more profitably.

Green_Bear

Conina wrote: »

:T
I've often thought similar thoughts regarding some hardcore remainers and their reliance on these forums.

It amuses me of some (we all know who they are by now, surely) that profess their supposed superior intelligence and alleged superior status and yet they appear on these forums all day, all evening and sometimes even all night; well I'm sure we can all envisage that great remainer Richard Branson just for example moonlighting on MSE to secretly voice his opinions, can't we? :rotfl:

Not a chance.

He's sensible and using his time rather more profitably.

You have a point.
But seeing different opinions on MSE makes a change from the MSM viewpoint.
It's useful to look outside of your bubble - whatever bubble that is.

Green_Bear

Conina wrote: »

:T
I've often thought similar thoughts regarding some hardcore remainers and their reliance on these forums.

It amuses me of some (we all know who they are by now, surely) that profess their supposed superior intelligence and alleged superior status and yet they appear on these forums all day, all evening and sometimes even all night; well I'm sure we can all envisage that great remainer Richard Branson just for example moonlighting on MSE to secretly voice his opinions, can't we? :rotfl:

Not a chance.

He's sensible and using his time rather more profitably.

Branson started his businesses in a different era.
If he was starting today, he'd probably be spending most of his time on eBay or some similar online site.

Sailtheworld

Conina wrote: »

I'd love to know why you think voters dismissed such warnings instead of the far more likely reality which is that voters still thought them preferable to remaining in the EU, especially since all accepted evidence is suggesting that there has been no discernible shift in voters intentions between the referendum and now.

Nigel Farage et al didn't tell their followers that the leaflet was a decent forecast of the future but staying in the EU would be worse. Leave voters were told to dismiss the leaflet by their thought leaders.

Cognitive dissonance explains why people in belief systems when presented with proof their belief system is bolks still keep on believing.

You were there chap. You read the leaflet. You thought it was nonsense propaganda but, here we are, more than three years later with you trying to kid me you took a measured view of the contents, accepted there would be negative consequences but calculated staying would be worse.

I stand in awe of your brass neck.

Sailtheworld

Conina wrote: »

:T
I've often thought similar thoughts regarding some hardcore remainers and their reliance on these forums.

It amuses me of some (we all know who they are by now, surely) that profess their supposed superior intelligence and alleged superior status and yet they appear on these forums all day, all evening and sometimes even all night; well I'm sure we can all envisage that great remainer Richard Branson just for example moonlighting on MSE to secretly voice his opinions, can't we? :rotfl:

Not a chance.

He's sensible and using his time rather more profitably.

Appeals to the crowd and ad-hominen attacks - tools of the trade for those with cognitive dissonance.

westernpromise

Sailtheworld wrote: »

I took a guess from what their thought leaders were telling them to think.

So a guess. You don't know.

westernpromise

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Nigel Farage et al didn't tell their followers that the leaflet was a decent forecast of the future but staying in the EU would be worse. Leave voters were told to dismiss the leaflet by their thought leaders.

You see, you've got that exactly backwards. Someone who listens to Farage was already a Leave voter.

You have no idea what specific arguments persuaded undecideds to become Leave voters. What is clear that Remain wanted and continues to want to believe their opponents are all stupid, suggestible, evil racists. But here's a thought for you: that was also known in advance. What if that was, as I suspect, a significant recruiting sergeant for Leave? What if Leavers heard your arguments, and decided to oppose you, to teach you a lesson for hating and sneering at them while demanding their votes?

Every such Leave convert would be someone who heard and believed Remain's arguments, but couldn't care less about any of them.