Will Brexit happen?

Malthusian

lisyloo wrote: »

We could have a second ref on the 3 deliverable options

Remain (revoke)
No deal
WA

What happens if the nation votes for WA and the EU says "No, you took too long and the WA is now off the table, we want a legally binding commitment to no hard border in Ireland until 2025, and a €50bn divorce bill, otherwise it's hard Brexit"? (Or any other change, no matter how minor.)

You can't hold a referendum on something that requires the agreement of a party not under the control of the electorate. That is why referendum1 was "Leave" or "Remain". Under both options it is clear what the UK must do regardless of what the EU does. Under "WA" it isn't.

In any case Leave will never agree to that as it's a dishonest way to cancel Brexit. Leave votes are split between two options, Remain gets one, so Remain has a significant advantage which could conceivably overcome the large numbers of people who have either left or converted to Leave since 2016.

(The only people who will vote WA are those who don't understand how international trade works, for the reason detailed above. The Leave campaign would tell everyone to vote No Deal as they would understand what was going on. But enough voters would not get the memo, or be unable to bring themselves to vote No Deal even if they intellectually understood that they were walking into a trap, to put Leave at a disadvantage.)

If Parliament wants to cancel Brexit they should just do it. Ireland got over it, the Swiss got over it, so would the British.

Takedap

lisyloo wrote: »

We could have a second ref on the 3 deliverable options

Remain (revoke)
No deal
WA

But surely we won't need a 2nd ref.


Merkel told Bojo to come up with an alternative WA within 30 days & Boris accepted, saying Wir schaffen das


I think he's still got about 10 days left.


Unless he was fibbing........

phillw

Malthusian wrote: »

What happens if the nation votes for WA and the EU says "No, you took too long and the WA is now off the table, we want a legally binding commitment to no hard border in Ireland until 2025, and a €50bn divorce bill, otherwise it's hard Brexit"? (Or any other change, no matter how minor.)

What happens if the EU continue acting reasonably, despite the far right of the conservatives bad behavior?

For a start the "divorce bill" is actually being reduced by our contributions anyway. We were kinda dumb with the timing, like leaving a two year mobile phone contract half way through and then having to pay for a service we wouldn't be getting.

I think the commitment to a no hard border in ireland is forever, they won't suggest that we can place one there in 2025.

Takedap wrote: »

Unless he was fibbing........

He has no concept of truth and lies, there are only things he says that will advance his position. I don't think he even knows that this could be seen as always lying, even if he happens on the truth by accident.

AndyCF

Perhaps those after a second referendum should get one, but without a remain option, as ultimately they lost the initial vote ? This was suggested to me the other day, twas not my idea so don't shout at me!

Leave = Immediately without a deal
Leave = With May's deal as it was
Leave = With a new deal once it has been settled. If MP's reject more than three changes to it (and they are implemented) then it is 'applied' regardless

hmm ?

lisyloo

Takedap wrote: »

But surely we won't need a 2nd ref.


Merkel told Bojo to come up with an alternative WA within 30 days & Boris accepted, saying Wir schaffen das


I think he's still got about 10 days left.


Unless he was fibbing........

There are many sources on the EU side plus amber Rudd saying no sensible proposals or effort going on.
Like many people I’m surprised at the speed he’s been discredited.

Green_Bear

lisyloo wrote: »

An election does not not delay brexit nor does “something else”.
There is an end date to the process and only revocation or extension will delay.
We are trying the patience of the 27 and the French say no extension as things stand.

I think we should revoke whilst we sort ourselves out but leavers are getting a bit desperate so will never agree to that.

That's your opinion of what you would LIKE to happen.
My statement was a prediction of what WILL happen.

I don't want this whole Brexit thing to drag on. I don't want it to rain today. But I don't get to decide these things.

There will be extension, delay, election, more talk, delay, extension, election, another referendum, delay, extension....

Green_Bear

AndyCF wrote: »

Perhaps those after a second referendum should get one, but without a remain option, as ultimately they lost the initial vote ? This was suggested to me the other day, twas not my idea so don't shout at me!

Leave = Immediately without a deal
Leave = With May's deal as it was
Leave = With a new deal once it has been settled. If MP's reject more than three changes to it (and they are implemented) then it is 'applied' regardless

hmm ?

I don't think parliament would vote to hold such a referendum.
But they did vote for A50 (against their previous viewpoints mostly) - so who knows?

Malthusian

phillw wrote: »

What happens if the EU continue acting reasonably, despite the far right of the conservatives bad behavior?

In my scenario they would be acting reasonably.

Certainly all Remainers including you would think they would be acting reasonably. There would be plenty of reasonable reasons for them to insist on greater legal and financial committments to protect the rest of the EU given the UK's ongoing inability to manage its exit.

Allowing the electorate to vote "WA" would put the UK in limbo once the WA as it stood was withdrawn from the other side. Therefore it would be reasonable for the EU to protect itself from that limbo.

It's only a theoretical problem anyway as WA would not win. All Leave campaigns, even those in favour of an ongoing close relationship with the EU, would plead desperately for everyone to vote No Deal to minimise the split. Remain would be clear odds-on favourite to win. No Deal would come second. WA would come a distant third, probably less than 10%, with only a small minority of either Leavers who couldn't bring themselves to vote No Deal or didn't understand that WA wasn't a real option but a trap.

"Revoke while we sort ourselves out", incidentally, is permanently revoking Brexit. The same people who blocked the WA three times will ensure that. The UK will never "sort itself out" under a Remain Parliament.

Green_Bear

Malthusian wrote: »

In my scenario they would be acting reasonably.

Certainly all Remainers including you would think they would be acting reasonably. There would be plenty of reasonable reasons for them to insist on greater legal and financial committments to protect the rest of the EU given the UK's ongoing inability to manage its exit.

Allowing the electorate to vote "WA" would put the UK in limbo once the WA as it stood was withdrawn from the other side. Therefore it would be reasonable for the EU to protect itself from that limbo.

It's only a theoretical problem anyway as WA would not win. All Leave campaigns, even those in favour of an ongoing close relationship with the EU, would plead desperately for everyone to vote No Deal to minimise the split. Remain would be clear odds-on favourite to win. No Deal would come second. WA would come a distant third, probably less than 10%, with only a small minority of either Leavers who couldn't bring themselves to vote No Deal or didn't understand that WA wasn't a real option but a trap.

"Revoke while we sort ourselves out", incidentally, is permanently revoking Brexit. The same people who blocked the WA three times will ensure that. The UK will never "sort itself out" under a Remain Parliament.

I don't think any position, Brexit or Remain, will now be permanent. If Brexit MPs become a majority, that will also be temporary. Even if the UK left the EU tomorrow, uncertainty would still continue as there would be plans to rejoin.

MobileSaver

AndyCF wrote: »

Perhaps those after a second referendum should get one, but without a remain option, as ultimately they lost the initial vote ?

So ignore the wishes of 16 million people who voted to Remain? That doesn't sound like democracy to me.

Perhaps at the next General Election we should remove the option to vote for Labour as ultimately they lost last time...