Next recession - poll

AG47

There will be a huge downturn in the very near future

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld wrote: »

...and most of that will have been spent on wine, holidays & cars and the rest wasted. i.e. probably no more or less likely to hit the UK economy than bank dividends or bonuses really.

Not much in the scheme of things either is it; I'm surprised you called it a '£35bn PPI bonanza' to be honest.

Seems as if we have different reading and information sources .


Let's see how the service economy performs without this "not much" contribution. How it ripples out into other areas of consumer spend.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as if we have different reading and information sources .

Let's see how the service economy performs without this "not much" contribution. How it ripples out into other areas of consumer spend.

It shouldn't make much of a difference for a few reasons.

This wasn't newly minted helicopter cash. The £35bn was, instead, diverted from bank profits and therefore was going to be spent in the economy anyway as dividends & bonuses. If, as you say, £35bn is the equivalent of 0.5% of consumer spending then it's still 0.5% of consumer spending - just different consumers. Net effect = zero.

It's a weak argument to say bank profits and dividends are spent abroad so PPI is more likely to hit the UK economy providing a boost. You have no evidence to support the former and there's lots of evidence to suggest that most of the PPI payouts left the country in short order spent on cars & holidays. Sellers of cars and holidays may be affected but, given the weakness of Sterling over the last few years, it's probably quite low down on their worry list.

IMO PPI recipients and their money are soon parted so the main difference will be the speed at which the money hits the economy; not that bankers in receipt of bonuses are held up as examples of thrift.

Here's an idea. If you think something different will happen why not say what and why rather than just hint at unspecified bad things?

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld wrote: »

It shouldn't make much of a difference for a few reasons.

Then we'll just have to agree to disagree. Plenty of research on the topic. None if which reinforces your viewpoint.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Then we'll just have to agree to disagree. Plenty of research on the topic. None if which reinforces your viewpoint.

Where's the disagreement? You've not actually said what you think will happen.

Having a vague, not very well articulated, feeling in your stomach that bad things may happen isn't a prediction. It's just a way to have your biases confirmed whenever there's a bit of bad news.

The only thing I've ever seen you stick your neck out about is that none of the unspecified bad things have anything to do with brexit.

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

There will be a huge downturn in the very near future

Can you be any more specific? How much cheaper will houses be by Christmas this year?

Thrugelmir

MobileSaver wrote: »

Can you be any more specific? How much cheaper will houses be by Christmas this year?

Drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities may not be helpfull to the stuttering global economy. Extent of damage is yet to be revealed.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities may not be helpfull to the stuttering global economy. Extent of damage is yet to be revealed.

Duly added to list of things that make the unspecified bad things more likely to happen.