Next recession - poll

michaels

Inverted yield curve anyone?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47671267

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

Are you for real, the uk has more savings than 90% of the rest of the human world

Also a far higher cost of living.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Inverted yield curve anyone?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47671267

Trump's stimulus policies appear to be running out of oomph.......

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Likewise the £35 billion PPI refund bonanza is drawing to a close. Consumers aren't going to have so much money for ticket items. Likewise onlyso many new cars that can be sold on finance of one kind or another.

Can't see the end of the PPI episode is going to make that much difference. Without PPI that £35bn would've found its way into the economy anyway via bank dividends & bonuses.

Perhaps the speed at which the money is spent is different - I imagine the average PPI refund recipient is sooner parted from that money than the average person receiving it as a bank share dividend.

westernpromise

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Without PPI that £35bn would've found its way into the economy anyway via bank dividends & bonuses.

Not necessarily in the UK though.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Can't see the end of the PPI episode is going to make that much difference. Without PPI that £35bn would've found its way into the economy anyway via bank dividends & bonuses.

BOE wouldn't of needed to step in with all it's cheap support schemes to keep banks lending.

Dividends in the main would have flowed abroad. Not back into the Treasury.

Peter_Williams

GreatApe wrote: »

Are you for real, the uk has more savings than 90% of the rest of the human world

What matters is not how much of GDP is saved but the stock of capital and for the uk that is in excess of £10 trillion

Things are so good that £200 billion a year is gifted from old to young in the UK

That figure includes peasants in the third world, so it's not really relevant to how people progress in the UK.

Sailtheworld

westernpromise wrote: »

Not necessarily in the UK though.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Dividends in the main would have flowed abroad. Not back into the Treasury.

Maybe so - I don't have the data to demonstrate where dividends from UK banks go. The point is that Peter was robbed to pay Paul - there was no new money.

It's not necessarily the case that PPI refunds spend an awful lot of time languishing in the UK either. Most is spent on holidays and cars.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Maybe so - I don't have the data to demonstrate where dividends from UK banks go. The point is that Peter was robbed to pay Paul - there was no new money.

It's not necessarily the case that PPI refunds spend an awful lot of time languishing in the UK either. Most is spent on holidays and cars.

OBR estimated that the effect of PPI refunds was to boost net disposable income by 0.5%.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

OBR estimated that the effect of PPI refunds was to boost net disposable income by 0.5%.

...and most of that will have been spent on wine, holidays & cars and the rest wasted. i.e. probably no more or less likely to hit the UK economy than bank dividends or bonuses really.

Not much in the scheme of things either is it; I'm surprised you called it a '£35bn PPI bonanza' to be honest.