Next recession - poll

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

the UK is likely to start slowing further as well, depends how long the consumer keeps spending for, can consumer confidence be maintained in the face of rising debt burdens and a slowing growth trend?

Likewise the £35 billion PPI refund bonanza is drawing to a close. Consumers aren't going to have so much money for ticket items. Likewise onlyso many new cars that can be sold on finance of one kind or another.

michaels

One elephant in the room imho is the pension auto-enrolment. Although this doesn't show up as lower incomes, effectively spending power is being taken from consumers, guess it is then spent buying assets such as shares and thus the sellers of these assets in theory have more to spend but I bet their average propensity to consume is lower than that of the average earner who is losing income.

Zxcv_Bnm

climate change is a Drake equation

Drake equation for calculating the probability of intelligent life in the galaxy

N = The number of civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.

x

R* = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.

x

fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.

x

ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.

x

fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.

x

fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.

x

fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.

L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

climate change

N = number of people who will live over the next 100 years

x

R* = amount of energy they will use

x

fp = fraction of that energy that's fossil

x

ne = price of that energy

x

fl = fraction of that energy released as CO2

x

fi = fraction of CO2 absorbed by new technology

x

fc = effect on temperature of 1 extra ppm CO2 in the air

In each case not a single one of the terms is known. Any answer you like is as right as every other answer

I don't worry about it at all

Gwendo40

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Likewise the £35 billion PPI refund bonanza is drawing to a close. Consumers aren't going to have so much money for ticket items. Likewise onlyso many new cars that can be sold on finance of one kind or another.

There will no doubt be some other mis-selling refund bonanza along shortly to reward and protect the !!!!less debt junkies, probably mis-sold IO mortgages.

michaels

Gwendo40 wrote: »

There will no doubt be some other mis-selling refund bonanza along shortly to reward and protect the !!!!less debt junkies, probably mis-sold IO mortgages.

Yes please

(Speaking as someone who wasn't stupid enough to ever sign up for PPI so missed out on that gravy train of 'forced saving with an 8% return)

Thrugelmir

Gwendo40 wrote: »

There will no doubt be some other mis-selling refund bonanza along shortly to reward and protect the !!!!less debt junkies, probably mis-sold IO mortgages.

Mortgages aren't sold, they are applied for. PPI was sold hard. Commission rate on the product could be as high as 40%. Much PPI was sold in relation to new vehicle sales.

phillw

triathlon wrote: »

So are you one of these people that actually believe the financial crisis of 2008 was really repaired?

Repaired in what sense? I don't think the 80's and 90's crashes ever got repaired.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Mortgages aren't sold, they are applied for.

Have you never visited a mortgage adviser?

I had to use one to keep the buyers happy as they had already had a buyer whose mortgage offer collapsed (or at least that is what the estate agent told me, it was before they charged fees and I'd have got the same deal going direct, so I didn't care). I told them what mortgage I wanted, they looked up on their computer and sorted by interest rate and tried to sell me another one with a lower rate. I pushed for them to show me the figures once all the fees had been added and mine was cheaper.

If I hadn't been insistent, then I'd have been sold a worse mortgage than I wanted.

System

Zxcv_Bnm wrote: »

Brexit hysteria is exaggerated

Helped along by Mark Carney.
Now that he's changed his tune a bit have you noticed he's stopped wringing his hands and holding them up by his face, and keeps them lower down in a less anxious more confident posture?

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

Have you never visited a mortgage adviser?

Never a need to. Managing personal financial affairs well was drummed into me from an early age by both my parents and grandparents.

Malthusian

phillw wrote: »

Have you never visited a mortgage adviser?

If you visit a mortgage adviser then you're applying, not being sold to.