Next recession - poll

michaels

More 'it is definitely not a recession' news:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47499326

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Are we actually seeing the ECB getting ahead of the curve for once?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47485200

BOE has been ruuning numerous support schemes in addition to QE. Then there's HTB as well.

ECB is struggling with a one size fits all. As it doesn't. Slowdown in Germany will dampen internal activity within the EU as a whole.

sevenhills

michaels wrote: »

One elephant in the room imho is the pension auto-enrolment. Although this doesn't show up as lower incomes, effectively spending power is being taken from consumers, guess it is then spent buying assets such as shares and thus the sellers of these assets in theory have more to spend but I bet their average propensity to consume is lower than that of the average earner who is losing income.

I too think this will affect the economy.


From April 2019, the amount of money people pay into workplace pensions will rise as minimum contributions from employees are increased from 3% to 5% under auto-enrolment rules. Employers will also see their contributions go up from 2% to 3%.


Not sure what percentage of the workforce it applies to, but 2% less pay and employers having 1% more in costs is likely to affect consumer purchases and confidence.


https://www.moneywise.co.uk/pensions/managing-your-pension/what-does-2019-have-store-pensions-tax-relief-changes-state-pension

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

I too think this will affect the economy.

Longer term is positive though. Level of savings in the UK is generally poor. Not everyone can own a BTL property to provide a pension income.

michaels

In more 'what recession?' news, German car production was down 9.2% in January as a result of another 'one off' factor.

Industrial production down 0.8%.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

In more 'what recession?' news, German car production was down 9.2% in January as a result of another 'one off' factor.

News from China today. Seems as Honda's decision is being vindicated by the change in demand, i.e. new technology.

China’s automobile sales fell 13.8 percent in February from the same month a year earlier, the country’s biggest auto industry association said on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline in the world’s largest auto market.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said sales fell to 1.48 million vehicles. That followed declines of 16 percent in January and 13 percent in December.

New energy vehicle sales, in contrast, rose 53.6 percent year-on-year in February, it said.

The figures come as China plans billions of dollars in tax cuts and infrastructure spending to support an economy growing at its slowest pace in almost 30 years due to softer domestic demand and a trade war with the United States.

The government is now trying to persuade consumers to spend and has pledged subsidies to boost rural sales of some vehicles as well as the sales of new energy vehicles.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-autos/china-auto-sales-fall-14-percent-in-february-mark-eighth-month-of-decline-idUKKBN1QS0LS

michaels

Extremely ugly PMI figures from both France and Germany today. Looks like more European QE is on the cards.

Can an EU that is already heading into recession afford a no deal brexit?

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Longer term is positive though. Level of savings in the UK is generally poor. Not everyone can own a BTL property to provide a pension income.

Are you for real, the uk has more savings than 90% of the rest of the human world

What matters is not how much of GDP is saved but the stock of capital and for the uk that is in excess of £10 trillion

Things are so good that £200 billion a year is gifted from old to young in the UK

GreatApe

michaels wrote: »

Extremely ugly PMI figures from both France and Germany today. Looks like more European QE is on the cards.

Can an EU that is already heading into recession afford a no deal brexit?

Trade will not stop because things change slowly in economic terms. Cost will increase as real productivity of the UK and its partners drop

I have always said and still maintain that brexit will be a small net change either positive or negative.

There could be some very real very short term pain if business does not know what the new rules regulations and laws are in the first few weeks months etc that must be avoided at all cost

StevieJ

Malthusian wrote: »

No they don't. The consumers pay when they pay their loans back. For the very small minority of borrowers who default, those who don't default pay their loans back as well, via the portion of the interest rate that represents provision for bad debts.

I always found it a bit weird how the banks encouraged the borrowers to insure the banks bad debts Having said that it is free choice, providing that the banks don't add it on without the borrowers explicit agreement.
I am pretty sure there are plenty of PPI reclaims that are unduly being paid out, same as previous claims resulting from the Endowment scandal. The ambulance chasers are now well and truly in the ascendancy in this country.