Next recession - poll

GreatApe

triathlon wrote: »

So are you one of these people that actually believe the financial crisis of 2008 was really repaired?

For the record I think we will enter recession as soon as the end of this year

Well what I know for sure is that 2008-2018 was a great decade for humanity, especially the poorest

For one thing, the best part of half a billion new homes were built during that time. That is 500 million more families in a home than a decade ago which is a fantastic result the best decade ever

GreatApe

triathlon wrote: »

So are you one of these people that actually believe the financial crisis of 2008 was really repaired?

For most people, the 'crisis' was absolutely nowt if it was not reported in the media most people would not even be aware of a 'crisis'

In world terms, the last 10 years was the best 10 years in human history
Even in UK terms the last 10 years was the best 10 years in UK history.
Life expectancy up, pollution down, employment at record levels, university participation up, crime down, workplace deaths down, the rise of the magnificent internet further enriching our lives.

Of course on an individual level you life can go to !!!! primarily because aging is no fun you lose your health and your looks and for many with the passage of time they face hardships like divorce or accidents or ill health so for individuals most look back at the past and miss their youth and mistakenly think the pat was better. It certainly wasn't! they are just not comparing like with like

Also we are a nation of 66 million and there is a standard deviation of well being from those with great lives to those with the worst of the worst lives. What that means is you can paint whatever picture you want at any point in time. You just go find those at the negative tail end of the distribution and put them in front of a camera and cry look things are !!!! but on any objective measure the planet is moving in a great direction and the last 10 years was the best decade for humanity and especially the poorest.

And guess what the next 10 years will be the best decade for humanity too

Crashy_Time

David_Evans wrote: »

All on a spectrum.
If cutting IRs doesn't work - QE is next option.

What's your opinion on house prices relative to gold? ie priced in gold

I don`t have an opinion on house prices priced in gold, only on house prices relative to wages and debt.

Thrugelmir

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I don`t have an opinion on house prices priced in gold, only on house prices relative to wages and debt.

and presumably interest rates.

andrewf75

GreatApe wrote: »

For most people, the 'crisis' was absolutely nowt if it was not reported in the media most people would not even be aware of a 'crisis'

In world terms, the last 10 years was the best 10 years in human history
Even in UK terms the last 10 years was the best 10 years in UK history.
Life expectancy up, pollution down, employment at record levels, university participation up, crime down, workplace deaths down, the rise of the magnificent internet further enriching our lives.

Of course on an individual level you life can go to !!!! primarily because aging is no fun you lose your health and your looks and for many with the passage of time they face hardships like divorce or accidents or ill health so for individuals most look back at the past and miss their youth and mistakenly think the pat was better. It certainly wasn't! they are just not comparing like with like

Also we are a nation of 66 million and there is a standard deviation of well being from those with great lives to those with the worst of the worst lives. What that means is you can paint whatever picture you want at any point in time. You just go find those at the negative tail end of the distribution and put them in front of a camera and cry look things are !!!! but on any objective measure the planet is moving in a great direction and the last 10 years was the best decade for humanity and especially the poorest.

And guess what the next 10 years will be the best decade for humanity too

While I agree with much of it, I would have to dispute the last sentence.

I think we're approaching a turning point and recent events support that. A lot of the success you point to is not sustainable. Look at history and it tends to be cyclical with periods of advance, stagnation, instability etc. We've become complacent thinking that things always just get better...

michaels

So the recession did not start in October as Q4 came in at 0.2% (below consensus 0.3%). However December was -0.4%.

In a way it is remarkable that the UK is not doing worse - there is clearly a worldwide slowdown taking place with Europe in particular already struggling and China slowing sharply, given the additional Brexit uncertainty headwinds you would expect the UK to be bottom of the pack but we are not.

Zxcv_Bnm

Brexit hysteria is exaggerated

The effects of even a WTO Brexit cant be worse than say a Labour government

We survive those, just

GreatApe

andrewf75 wrote: »

While I agree with much of it, I would have to dispute the last sentence.

I think we're approaching a turning point and recent events support that. A lot of the success you point to is not sustainable. Look at history and it tends to be cyclical with periods of advance, stagnation, instability etc. We've become complacent thinking that things always just get better...

IMO there is a defining period in civilization where pre and post events are not at all comparable and that is the age of electrification

In the west that happened around 1950.
Electricity existed before 1950 but it was not in mass use.
From 1950 - 1980 electricity use grew exponentially and that was the true industrial revolution.
The ones before that were a toy in comparison

Since the electricity age everything has gotten better and better and better. We have 70 years of continuous progress and there will be another 70 years too

andrewf75

GreatApe wrote: »

IMO there is a defining period in civilization where pre and post events are not at all comparable and that is the age of electrification

In the west that happened around 1950.
Electricity existed before 1950 but it was not in mass use.
From 1950 - 1980 electricity use grew exponentially and that was the true industrial revolution.
The ones before that were a toy in comparison

Since the electricity age everything has gotten better and better and better. We have 70 years of continuous progress and there will be another 70 years too

Possibly, you certainly can't always compare - but there are other challenges we face like a world with a vastly larger population, fewer resources, climate change, ageing populations etc

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

So the recession did not start in October as Q4 came in at 0.2% (below consensus 0.3%). However December was -0.4%.

In a way it is remarkable that the UK is not doing worse - there is clearly a worldwide slowdown taking place with Europe in particular already struggling and China slowing sharply, given the additional Brexit uncertainty headwinds you would expect the UK to be bottom of the pack but we are not.

Global trade seems to be getting hammered, being an economy less driven by exports of goods than somewhere like Germany will probably see us getting fewer negative effects to start with.

Still you stick that on top of Brexit which is already negatively impacting business confidence and investment and the UK is likely to start slowing further as well, depends how long the consumer keeps spending for, can consumer confidence be maintained in the face of rising debt burdens and a slowing growth trend?

The interesting thing is that consumer spending seemed robust in Jan, but the growth appears to be driven by "essentials" so may just be getting a bit of early stockpiling.

The short term outlook doesn't appear to be great for much of Uk and Europe