Next recession - poll

Malthusian

Brown_Bear wrote: »

So who have been the losers in this whole PPI refund bonanza?
Those who own shares in the banks affected?

No-one. It's a refund of money that should never have been taken from consumers in the first place.

Enterprise_1701C

I have no idea.

All I am doing is holding on and hoping that we manage to leave the eu before it crashes and that the idiot turkeys don't vote for Christmas in the form of Corbyn, he would certainly be a disaster, he didn't even vote to proscribe Hezbollah, and he still supports Maduro. The damage he would do to this country would cause a decades long recession, especially if he managed to let unions strike in sympathy for strikers overseas, he still can't see that it was the striking miners who wrecked the mines, a lot of which became unusable after the miners prevented maintenance from taking place.

So, who knows, we will ride the tide when it gets here.

Brown_Bear

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

I have no idea.

All I am doing is holding on and hoping that we manage to leave the eu before it crashes and that the idiot turkeys don't vote for Christmas in the form of Corbyn, he would certainly be a disaster, he didn't even vote to proscribe Hezbollah, and he still supports Maduro. The damage he would do to this country would cause a decades long recession, especially if he managed to let unions strike in sympathy for strikers overseas,.

I don't think any of those things will be the main cause of the next recession. They may make things worse*, but the main cause will be the length of this latest expansion, plus the fact that the US stock market is still over-valued.

The Fed can't raise rates without weakening the stock market, so they won't have much room to cut when the next crash occurs.

*apart from the Hezullah issue. I don't think that has any relevance to anything. Apart from a very small reduction in UK trade with Israel - perhaps.

GreatApe

Recessions are mostly nonsense in the west

2008-2018 was humanities best decade ever. More homes hospitals roads ports ships power stations dams...everything....were built than any other time in human history

Brown_Bear

GreatApe wrote: »

Recessions are mostly nonsense in the west

2008-2018 was humanities best decade ever. More homes hospitals roads ports ships power stations dams...everything....were built than any other time in human history

Yes - because 2008-18 was a period of strong growth following the 2008 crash.
And much of that construction was probably in China.

I agree the money (gold) is moving East.
But it is still a fact worth considering that if you held an equity tracker during 2007-8 it probably did drop in value.
So it is worth thinking about.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian wrote: »

No-one. It's a refund of money that should never have been taken from consumers in the first place.

Borrowed by consumers. Taxpayer is now footing the bill.

Malthusian

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Borrowed by consumers. Taxpayer is now footing the bill.

No they don't. The consumers pay when they pay their loans back. For the very small minority of borrowers who default, those who don't default pay their loans back as well, via the portion of the interest rate that represents provision for bad debts.

GreatApe

Brown_Bear wrote: »

Yes - because 2008-18 was a period of strong growth following the 2008 crash.
And much of that construction was probably in China.

I agree the money (gold) is moving East.
But it is still a fact worth considering that if you held an equity tracker during 2007-8 it probably did drop in value.
So it is worth thinking about.

1st world problems

A number on a computer that barely impacts you temporarily went down

Recessions are nonsense, as an individual your own life matters much more than a figure reported once a quarter.

What matters, the stock of knowledge and the stock of capital never goes down.
Its like when people were running around like headless chickens crying about the irish housing bubble. I was one of the few sane people saying so what they overbuilt a few homes whats wrong with having a tiny excess. Fast forward a decade and the story is now....irish housing crisis not enough being built

michaels

Are we actually seeing the ECB getting ahead of the curve for once?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47485200

Thrugelmir

Malthusian wrote: »

No they don't. The consumers pay when they pay their loans back. For the very small minority of borrowers who default, those who don't default pay their loans back as well, via the portion of the interest rate that represents provision for bad debts.

BOE fiscal policy has been to fund the banks with cheap money. Enabling them to make profits which cover the losses. As a consequence banks requirement for retail deposits is lower, and reflects in interest rates on offer to savers. Every action has a consequence.