Next recession - poll

David_Evans

Will the next recession be inflationary or deflationary?

Thrugelmir

Depends on Chinese economic activity.

GreatApe

The whole point of a central bank is to make sure there is no huge inflation or deflation so the question can be framed will the central bank lose control and I think the answer is no. The BOE over the last 10 years managed to keep average 2.7% inflation which is exactly in its remit of 2-3% inflation

Personally I dont think there is going to be another serious recession in my lifetime and 2020s is going to be higher growth than 2010s

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

The whole point of a central bank is to make sure there is no huge inflation or deflation so the question can be framed will the central bank lose control and I think the answer is no. The BOE over the last 10 years managed to keep average 2.7% inflation which is exactly in its remit of 2-3% inflation

Personally I dont think there is going to be another serious recession in my lifetime and 2020s is going to be higher growth than 2010s

Inflationary pressures are in part outside of the BOE's control. The world has changed in the past 20 years and continues to evolve further. The UK is still paying the price for the deeds of the bankers.

michaels

What is an inflationary recession? Stagflation?

As the next recession started on 1st Jan (assuming we eeked out positive growth in q4) then the op question should be answered soon.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

As the next recession started on 1st Jan (assuming we eeked out positive growth in q4) then the op question should be answered soon.

Requires two quarters of negative growth to be in recession. April-Jun quarter will be key.

David_Evans

michaels wrote: »

What is an inflationary recession? Stagflation?
.

A drop in asset prices (eg stock market drop), followed by QE to push up asset prices - leading to currency weakness.

Crashy_Time

David_Evans wrote: »

A drop in asset prices (eg stock market drop), followed by QE to push up asset prices - leading to currency weakness.

I think pausing rate rises has replaced using QE to pump the markets, as least as far as the Fed are concerned?

triathlon

GreatApe wrote: »

The whole point of a central bank is to make sure there is no huge inflation or deflation so the question can be framed will the central bank lose control and I think the answer is no. The BOE over the last 10 years managed to keep average 2.7% inflation which is exactly in its remit of 2-3% inflation

Personally I dont think there is going to be another serious recession in my lifetime and 2020s is going to be higher growth than 2010s

So are you one of these people that actually believe the financial crisis of 2008 was really repaired?

For the record I think we will enter recession as soon as the end of this year

Thrugelmir

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I think pausing rate rises has replaced using QE to pump the markets, as least as far as the Fed are concerned?

In case you missed the news. The Fed is already on QE reveral mode. Reduced the balance sheet from $4.5 trillion to $4.1 trillion. Correspondingly the US market has stalled. A correlation that has no proven link as yet, though interesting to monitor.

David_Evans

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I think pausing rate rises has replaced using QE to pump the markets, as least as far as the Fed are concerned?

All on a spectrum.
If cutting IRs doesn't work - QE is next option.

What's your opinion on house prices relative to gold? ie priced in gold