Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Kohoutek

wunferall wrote: »

Rather than "sad times" for the UK at least dawns an era of new opportunities.
Of course it is entirely in the hands of the British whether or not they take full advantage of these opportunities.
Opportunities that simply cannot be taken advantage of as the member of a restrictive union.

If your theory is right, why is Japan demanding that the UK makes bigger concessions in the proposed UK-Japan trade agreement than the EU did in the EU-Japan trade deal?

The reality is that when you're in a bloc of 500 million people / $20 trillion economy, you can get much better deals than 66 million / $3 trillion. Opportunities aren't better when you have much less bargaining power....

SouthLondonUser

Brexiters seems to have forgotten that it was a certain Jacob Rees Mogg who said that we could have two referendums, and that it might make more sense to have the second one after a renegotiation phase.the exact video is in the first seconds of this clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0qSX5t0zJo


Yes, people voted to leave. But what did that mean? There are people happy with a no deal. There are Brexiters who abhor the idea of a no-deal. There are those who want a Norway-like option, and those who don't. What does leave mean? How can anyone claim that "the will of the people" is clear?
The clip I linked above does go through the most commonly quoted "Brexit plans" - so which was it?


In 2016 an overly optimistic and not particularly well-informed voter might have thought that we'd get the best deal in no time, but now? We are weeks away from Brexit and there is no clarity whatsoever! Gove wants tariffs on agriculture, the Chancellor doesn't. Nothing's better than having a consistent plan!


I made the example of lamb farmers, who export about half their product to the Continent; well, in a no deal scenario, there would be high tariffs (maybe around 40%, don't remember the exact figure). When I asked what Brexiters are or will be telling the farmers, I was first ridiculed (a Londoner who worries about lamb farmers) then told that farmers should sell more domestically or in non-EU countries. But is this what farmers were told? I seem to remember not. I seem to remember we were all told we'd hold all the cards, we'd have our cake and eat it, and only later were we told, by the ever-so-well-informed Boris, F* business.

SouthLondonUser

wunferall wrote: »

I don't get any direct say in who is my GP.
I don't get any direct say in which policeman arrives if I dial 999 (if, of course, one arrives at all; I suppose screaming "terrorist" and "bomb" might increase the chance of that. ).
There are as I'm sure you can accept SLU many more examples I could use.

Now the bit you seem to keep ignoring is that there are effective mechanisms in place which could lead to the removal of any of these if it were deemed necessary to do so were you or I to complain if enough people agreed.

Wunferall, and those who thanked you for your post, are you going to do the same as the other genius who wrote that European countries are one-party states because they don't have Shadow Cabinets, and simply not elaborate any more on the stupidity of this comment about removing GPs "if enough people agree"?


Or have you realised how stupid and dangerous what you said is, and will you apologise for it?


Or will you try to defend it?


Tocqueville is rolling in his grave...

Thrugelmir

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Brexiters seems to have forgotten that it was a certain Jacob Rees Mogg who said that we could have two referendums, and that it might make more sense to have the second one after a renegotiation phase.the exact video is in the first seconds of this clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0qSX5t0zJo


Yes, people voted to leave. But what did that mean? There are people happy with a no deal. There are Brexiters who abhor the idea of a no-deal. There are those who want a Norway-like option, and those who don't. What does leave mean? How can anyone claim that "the will of the people" is clear?
The clip I linked above does go through the most commonly quoted "Brexit plans" - so which was it?


In 2016 an overly optimistic and not particularly well-informed voter might have thought that we'd get the best deal in no time, but now? We are weeks away from Brexit and there is no clarity whatsoever! Gove wants tariffs on agriculture, the Chancellor doesn't. Nothing's better than having a consistent plan!


I made the example of lamb farmers, who export about half their product to the Continent; well, in a no deal scenario, there would be high tariffs (maybe around 40%, don't remember the exact figure). When I asked what Brexiters are or will be telling the farmers, I was first ridiculed (a Londoner who worries about lamb farmers) then told that farmers should sell more domestically or in non-EU countries. But is this what farmers were told? I seem to remember not. I seem to remember we were all told we'd hold all the cards, we'd have our cake and eat it, and only later were we told, by the ever-so-well-informed Boris, F* business.

Nothing has changed since Cameron returned with his tail between his legs from meeting the other EU leaders. Energy is better spent working productively on what's good for this country. The UK used to be full of entreprenurial spirit. Now it's pure resignation from many.

SouthLondonUser

Kohoutek wrote: »

The reality is that when you're in a bloc of 500 million people / $20 trillion economy, you can get much better deals than 66 million / $3 trillion. Opportunities aren't better when you have much less bargaining power....

That's one of the many things Brexiters do not understand and have totally failed to explain! What bargaining power would we have outside of the EU? Sure, there are countries smaller than us that still manage to do trade deals, but what bargaining power do they have?


Brexiters fail to realise that any kind of interaction with other countries involves giving up some level of sovereignty. You don't like that? Then become a hermit country like North Korea; look how sovereign they are, not accountable to any other country!


One of the many logical fallacies of Brexiters is disliking the EU because of a supposed democratic deficit (which in most cases is often not so, as I have explained at length). So the alternative is... to close trade deals on our own. With what bargaining power? What if the Americans requires us to accept chlorinated chicken? Where will our sovereignty be then? Brexiters foam at the mouth because EU Commissioners are not elected directly (just like neither are UK Ministers!), then fail to explain what bargaining power we'd have on our own, and why we wouldn't be forced to accept conditions we don't like, which would be waaay worse than being in the EU.

SouthLondonUser

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Nothing has changed since Cameron returned with his tail between his legs from meeting the other EU leaders. Energy is better spent working productively on what's good for this country. The UK used to be full of entreprenurial spirit. Now it's pure resignation from many.

Nothing has changed? Are we talking about the same country? Do we live in the same world?

May basically capitulated on most of her 'red lines'. There is no coherent alternative plan, neither within the Tories nor within Labour. We are weeks away from a hard Brexit and no one knows anything.


Boris went from having cake and eating it to F business.


Farage admitted the NHS bus thing was a big lie.


Do I need to go on?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Nothing has changed since Cameron returned with his tail between his legs from meeting the other EU leaders. Energy is better spent working productively on what's good for this country. The UK used to be full of entreprenurial spirit. Now it's pure resignation from many.

Britain has a lot of entreprenurial spirit. It's just Brexit really hampers it; either because there isn't enough clarity to work from or barriers are being put in the way.

Are there many entrepreneurs who are pro brexit?

Once all has settled down and we know what brexit means, people will start capitalizing on the new challenges and opportunities. There's going to be a huge boom in debt collection, for instance.

SouthLondonUser

Sir Dyson is pro Brexit. He moved the HQ to Singapore, but nothing to do with Brexit because, you know, reasons.

Jacob Rees Mogg is pro Brexit and set up a fund in Dublin, but nothing to do with Brexit, because, you know, reasons.

phillw

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Brexiters seems to have forgotten that it was a certain Jacob Rees Mogg who said that we could have two referendums,

Classic bait and switch scam, similar to BoJo's red bus manipulation.

We COULD have two referendums, but we won't.

LET US fund the NHS instead, but we won't.

By leaving the EU we've given up rights that prevented the british government from mistreating us and made it more expensive for us at the same time. Think of it like karma, all the reasons to leave the EU were selfish and so that will get paid back to you in spades.

Herzlos wrote: »

Are there many entrepreneurs who are pro brexit?

Of course, even entrepreneurs can be prejudiced. A lot of them don't like the working time directive and voted purely to get rid of that.

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Farage admitted the NHS bus thing was a big lie.

He can't admit it, because he has denied any link to it (it wasn't made by him or the organisation he was involved with). However he waited until after the referendum until he spoke against it, which is arguably lying by omission.

He also said after the referendum that he never once claimed we'd be financially better off after the referendum, which again I think a lot of leave voters are under a different impression.

If Reese Mogg had spoken like this before the referendum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=My4UM_zCpk0 then I don't see people would have voted for it. My understanding of that is once all the extra costs have been added for brexit it will take 50 years for the economy to return to the same level it was before brexit. So rather than being £350 million a week for the NHS, the NHS will have to have it's funding cut further.

Any leave voter who claims a victory in the referendum has real issues with morality.

Thrugelmir

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

May basically capitulated on most of her 'red lines'. There is no coherent alternative plan, neither within the Tories nor within Labour. We are weeks away from a hard Brexit and no one knows anything.

In case you weren't aware this a negotiation between the UK and the remaining members of the EU. Having "Red Lines" will simply default to a hard Brexit. Go back to the beginning and you'll find that that the lack of compromise comes as no surprise. The UK Parliament can infight as much as it wishes. However the EU's stance will not change. Why should it. While the UK may be an important member of the EU it's always been at odds with many aspects of it's direction.

Likewise whatever the outcome people will simply get on with the job in hand. The UK didn't crash after the GFC. Which was far more of a cliff edge situation.