Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

triathlon

BACKFRMTHEEDGE wrote: »

You’ve been here 40 years and you think you’re going to up sticks and go and live in Europe - don’t believe you tbh.

I have access to an Irish passport through my parents. I wouldn’t just up sticks because I didn’t like the result of a referendum or GE, or to make a few extra squids. And I can imagine what the wife would say.....

I think you’re posturing .... ( or even trolling)

I am in the same position, parent from Wexford, but I am going nowhere, good or bad the UK is my country. I voted Remain, but I barely gave a toss about even bothering to vote, It wasn't that important to me. Brexit or Remain, the UK was always going to cope with it and it was also going to be the country where my heart was/is

triathlon

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

I spoke with many Poles on my last visit and their complaints about the numbers of Ukrainians in Poland bordered on racism but they acknowledged that someone had to do the jobs vacated by Poles working elsewhere in the EU. It is estimated that there are up to 2 million Ukrainians working in Poland. If that is not large scale, I do not know what is.

This is only one source.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/18/whole-generation-has-gone-ukrainian-seek-better-life-poland-elect-president

Google it and you will find hundreds.

This link is very disturbing and is totally in accordance with my experience:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-migrants-in-poland-xenophobia-fear-abuse-harassment/

If you want to hear good old fashioned raw racism talk to the Polish about Islam , they struggle to hide it. There is no way on earth you are ever going to see a sizable muslim population in that country

goral

adindas wrote: »

But when you are the decision maker rather than someone else making decision for you whether to take it or to reject it, it is an entirely different matter isn't it ?? Let alone with Brexit you could decide who you want who you do not want you could expand trade, connection to wherever you want to ...

Also keep in mind Brexit is a democratic decision which is priceless, no money could buy

The EU is an economic block and not an occupier.
Everyone who creates or joins an economic block must agree on joint arrangements.
Otherwise, you have occupation and tyranny.
UK, in the EU, was one of three countries that actually created EU rules.
UK citizens elected their representatives to the European Parliament. That they would represent the British economic interest.
The UK has 73 representatives in the European Parliament! Germany 96, France 74.
So UK citizens have had a real impact on how the EU works! Only the lack of education of people in the UK means that most have no idea what the EU is and how it works, which is why it's so easy to tell them what you want about the EU.
In contrast, Johnson got 40% of the vote in the UK, but he has 60% in parliament - what a great democracy 60% UK citizen not vote for conservatives but they got majority in parlament. And you say EU parlament is non democratic?
And now outside the EU, UK will be under WTO rules. Another basic economic block, which UK residents do not choose, has no influence on its decisions, which rules it sets.
People in the UK think that Brexit means the return of British Empire. And that the WTO will be British empire. However, the realities are much harder. UK after Brexit, will be the US market. And tax heaven. A country where people will have very limited development opportunities. A country that will be a paradise for the very rich in this and those who live from illegal activities.

I do not deny the right to democratic elections.
The problem is that when people vote that the moon is made of cheese, it doesn't mean that it will be made of cheese.
Just as in a referendum, people will vote that the earth is flat, it will not change the fact that the earth is a sphere.
Education, education ...

adindas

You get it wrong again the very fundamental issue. Your fellow remoaners will be embarass to see your statement. The same thing where you did not know and still asking for proof (tons are available in the internet) that the UK is the second net largest contribtuors to the EU coffers.

Now Read this:
"The European Union (EU) is an economic and political union of 28 countries"
https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

I fully believe when the UK first join the EEA, not like the current EU many people will be happy to stay.

Just wait until they start building the EU army, taking tax directly from individuals.

goral wrote: »

The EU is an economic block and not an occupier.
Everyone who creates or joins an economic block must agree on joint arrangements.
Otherwise, you have occupation and tyranny.
UK, in the EU, was one of three countries that actually created EU rules.
UK citizens elected their representatives to the European Parliament. That they would represent the British economic interest.
The UK has 73 representatives in the European Parliament! Germany 96, France 74.
So UK citizens have had a real impact on how the EU works! Only the lack of education of people in the UK means that most have no idea what the EU is and how it works, which is why it's so easy to tell them what you want about the EU.
In contrast, Johnson got 40% of the vote in the UK, but he has 60% in parliament - what a great democracy 60% UK citizen not vote for conservatives but they got majority in parlament. And you say EU parlament is non democratic?
And now outside the EU, UK will be under WTO rules. Another basic economic block, which UK residents do not choose, has no influence on its decisions, which rules it sets.
People in the UK think that Brexit means the return of British Empire. And that the WTO will be British empire. However, the realities are much harder. UK after Brexit, will be the US market. And tax heaven. A country where people will have very limited development opportunities. A country that will be a paradise for the very rich in this and those who live from illegal activities.

I do not deny the right to democratic elections.
The problem is that when people vote that the moon is made of cheese, it doesn't mean that it will be made of cheese.
Just as in a referendum, people will vote that the earth is flat, it will not change the fact that the earth is a sphere.
Education, education ...

goral

adindas wrote: »

You get it wrong again the very fundamental issue. Your fellow remoaners will be embarass to see your statement. The same thing where you did not know and still asking for proof (tons are available in the internet) that the UK is the second net largest contribtuors to the EU coffers.

It's like listening to people who say the earth is flat.
They also say you have tons of evidence on the internet.
The same rhetoric.
Have you already found out what new opportunities UK citizens will have after Brexit and which they do not currently have? Are you still looking for? Or maybe you just believe in them, same how do some people believe that the earth is flat?


ps. Any agreement between states are political. Included WTO, new trade with US and others.

education, education....

Sailtheworld

adindas wrote: »

But when you are the decision maker rather than someone else making decision for you whether to take it or to reject it, it is an entirely different matter isn't it ?? Let alone with Brexit you could decide who you want who you do not want you could expand trade, connection to wherever you want to ...

Also keep in mind Brexit is a democratic decision which is priceless, no money could buy

I always find the taking back control argument a rather tenuous reason for brexit. Your net increase in decision making post brexit will be infinitesimally small.

Sure, it gives you a nice feeling inside out of all proportion to the change in influence which I sort of understand. You should be honest though and stop trying to kid people (and yourself) that it's about anything else other than emotion.

Herzlos

shaggydoo wrote: »

I have a genuine question too....when people just live in a country as if it's a business park and then flit when times get tough and leave the vunerable behind what happens?

You're all lying if you claim you wouldn't move for a better life.

The vulnerable are going to screwed by brexit worse than anyone else whether you stay or not, so I dont believe you care about them as it is.

Herzlos

Sailtheworld wrote: »

I always find the taking back control argument a rather tenuous reason for brexit. Your net increase in decision making post brexit will be infinitesimally small.

If anything it'll go backwards; the EU is still going to set all the rules for everything in the EU without our say. Want to sell anything to the EU? Follow the EU rules for that thing.
I mean, we could decide not to sell cars, or finance, etc. to the EU, but that's about it.

I know Cameron was talking about some arrangement where UK standards became EU standards and visa versa but that was obviously nonsense.

Backbiter

A long article about what the big negotiating points will be in the coming 11-month transition period.
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/01/23/brexit-2020-everything-you-need-to-know-about-johnson-s-trad

It ain't gonna be easy. Just read this but about Northern Ireland:

. This week, the Stormont Assembly voted unanimously - all parties and not a single vote against - to withhold consent from Johnson's Brexit deal. But even without their consent, it is going to be imposed on them. And it is an absolute godawful mess.

Why?

The deal Johnson did with the EU on Northern Ireland says that it stays in the UK customs territory but follows EU customs rules. It's not clear that he understood the implications of this. It means that a British trader selling into Northern Ireland would need to prove the goods are going to stay there, or pay the EU tariff.

Doesn't sound so bad.

But think about how weird it is. All around the world, goods arriving at a customs border are asked questions about the past - what is it, where was it made, how was it made? But now they are going to be asked questions about their future - where will it end up? And that is fundamentally unknowable. How do you prove it stayed in Northern Ireland? Let's say it's by a receipt on sale. How do you prove that the person you sold it to isn't then selling it into the EU? And this isn't just for final goods. It's also for goods for processing. So you need to know about the supply chain of the people you sell to as well.

I see the problem.

We don't even really have much data to prepare us for this because we don't track British trade to Northern Ireland, for the simple reason that it was always treated as domestic. The kind of information you'd usually have to prepare for a free trade agreement simply doesn't exist.

This is horrible.

It gets much worse. How is Northern Ireland supposed to prepare for this? If the British government succeeds in securing zero tariffs across the board, then life gets marginally easier, although you'd still need to deal with regulatory checks. But if it doesn't, we won't know what the outstanding tariffs will be until close to the deadline. And the Northern Irish system needs to be up and running at the end of transition on December 31st, with all the infrastructure and monitoring that entails. Put simply: It can't be done.

What's Johnson's plan?

He doesn't have one, or at least he hasn't revealed it. Probably the former. He still insist trade will be frictionless, even though this simply cannot be true by virtue of the deal he himself signed. The government also insists that "largely electronic" processes - the high-tech-solutions band back together again for a reunion tour - will solve everything. And then, even if everything works out in the best possible way and all the highest aspirations of the high-tech solutions come to pass, there is still a ghastly problem we have to face.

Alright, I'm strapped in. What is it?

Rules of origin.

No, come on. Not again man. Don't do this to me. We've done that.

Yeah, but it applies here too. The Northern Ireland arrangement is permanent. It stays in place even if the UK and EU have a trade agreement. And that means it has to function as if it's in the EU customs union. And that means…

Rules of origin between Britain and Northern Ireland.

Exactly. Those laborious, nightmarish requirements, carved right into UK territory.

Do they have to do these checks at the border?

No. You can do it away from the border. But the impact on businesses will be huge. Exporters from Britain, who are used to sending things to Northern Ireland as if it were the same country, will suddenly face the full bureaucratic horror show of rules of origin. They will need to decide if they want to go to all the work of figuring out where all their inputs come from, and where their suppliers source their inputs, and where their supplier's suppliers source their inputs. Or whether it is cheaper to simply stop exporting to Northern Ireland. Which many of them are very likely to do.

What's the political consequence of this?

It shows that Johnson's promise of frictionless trade between Britain and Northern Ireland is an outright lie. In fact, his deal creates a permanent border within the UK. It will never go away. It is set in stone. And the worst part, the really immoral part, is that this is happening without the consent of the people it is being imposed on. How that plays out, against the background of Irish politics and the prospect of sudden infrastructure and monitoring arrangements, and impossible timetables, is anyone's guess. But one thing is clear: No responsible person would have done this.

adindas

goral wrote: »

It's like listening to people who say the earth is flat.
They also say you have tons of evidence on the internet.
The same rhetoric.
Have you already found out what new opportunities UK citizens will have after Brexit and which they do not currently have? Are you still looking for? Or maybe you just believe in them, same how do some people believe that the earth is flat?


ps. Any agreement between states are political. Included WTO, new trade with US and others.

education, education....

Sailtheworld wrote: »

I always find the taking back control argument a rather tenuous reason for brexit. Your net increase in decision making post brexit will be infinitesimally small.

Sure, it gives you a nice feeling inside out of all proportion to the change in influence which I sort of understand. You should be honest though and stop trying to kid people (and yourself) that it's about anything else other than emotion.

Well, did you notice from my previous posts, I mentioned a lot of reasons not just taking back control ...
A person might feel like a kid in Brexit debate because his knowledge of Brexit like the knowledge of a kid. But concerning about myself I definitely know myself better than anyone else and I do not "kid" myself.

Both "goral" and you belong to the same league of fellow remoaners. Goral keep asking a proof that the UK is the second net largest contributors to the EU. Do him a favour to show the link to the statistics about this, so he will stop asking a proof to stop embarrassing other fellow remoaners.

The same person is also saying EU is an economic block. He did not know the different between EU and EEA. This time I did him a favour to show the direct link that the statement is wrong.