Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

phillw

Dee_Best wrote: »

That only shows me that the EU don't like being on the back foot, that they don't know what the other side's tactics are.
I don't know what Boris's tactics are either but if it's getting the EU this worked-up I'm happy.

They're not worked up. They are telling the truth.

If you gain happiness from thinking they are worked up, then that is what you'll see.

Tromking

phillw wrote: »

By your perceived EU standards. They actually seem to be quite good at negotiating. It must come from their desire to avoid war at all costs, they've had to learn to compromise.

We don't share the same qualities.

I wonder if you confuse between "pretending to negotiate" and "not rolling over to our every whim".

I’m no expert on the deals they’ve done in the past, but they have a reputation at least for appearing to be intractable right up to the last moment and then moving. Whether that’s an example of good deal making or bad I’ve no idea.
As a leave voter it’s good to finally have a PM who seems to have put some doubt in the other side minds as to whether we could leave without a deal. A good negotiating tactic in my view.

phillw

Tromking wrote: »

As a leave voter it’s good to finally have a PM who seems to have put some doubt in the other side minds as to whether we could leave without a deal. A good negotiating tactic in my view.

Maybe it would have been in the past, before anyone could buy the same game theory book as Dominic Cummings.

It's just a waste of time. The EU clearly doesn't just wait until the last minute to do all their negotiating. This style of negotiating is best used on people you won't have an ongoing relationship with, because you're likely to annoy them so much that it will sour future negotiations to your own detriment.

If Boris wants a deal then he's going completely the wrong way about it, I do wonder just how many more disasters Boris can actually talk himself out of.

Sailtheworld

Tromking wrote: »

As a leave voter it’s good to finally have a PM who seems to have put some doubt in the other side minds as to whether we could leave without a deal. A good negotiating tactic in my view.

The deal is almost certainly going to be May's with a renamed backstop.

The EU are going to have to take pity on Johnson / Barclay soon. According to 'sources' the pair of clowns didn't realise their common sanitary and phytosanitary rules for the island of Ireland wouldn't do away with the need for customs checks on most goods.

They really need to ditch Cummings before next election - a back seat driver giving poor directions.

phillw

Sailtheworld wrote: »

The deal is almost certainly going to be May's with a renamed backstop.

Or the original backstop.

The conservatives managed to get the Kinnock amendment to pass, even though it didn't have support in the house.

You've got to wonder why they would do that. It's been played off as a mistake, but there were some very smug conservatives afterwards & unless they want to use it there is no advantage to them having it there.

Dee_Best

phillw wrote: »

By your perceived EU standards. They actually seem to be quite good at negotiating. It must come from their desire to avoid war at all costs, they've had to learn to compromise.

We don't share the same qualities.

Good at negotiating?
:rotfl:
TTIP: 6 years and failed.
Mercosurdeal: 20 years so far and now stalled again - & EU threats to Brazil aren't improving matters. Twenty years!
Indonesia and Malaysia take the EU to the WTO over palm oil and EU protectionism; not much effective negotiation there from the EU.
Switzerland still stalled and no prospect of a deal being finalised any time soon with EU attempts at bullying backfiring and costing the EU a fortune as Swiss trading booms but EU trading fails.

You should note the incidence of EU bullying there; so much for your "peaceful" theory.

The EU are no better and equally probably no worse than anybody else at negotiating and in fact the recent EU comments about a lack of meaningful negotiation from the UK demonstrate that the UK are at last getting things right, making the EU stick to our schedule and not theirs.

Where the EU will always struggle in negotiation is with getting agreement from 27 member countries who might well each have different priorities and needs.
Ask Juncker who can't even get the language right without offending some Flemish mayor or other.

phillw

Dee_Best wrote: »

Mercosurdeal: 20 years so far and now stalled again - & EU threats to Brazil aren't improving matters. Twenty years!

It would probably have gone quicker if we didn't hold the falklands. I can see our negotiations with them taking a lot longer than 20 years.

You can be good at something but it still take a long time if it's hard to do, which looking at the facts there is no way that kind of trade deal would be done quickly.

FWIW It hasn't stalled, they need to translate it into all languages.

Dee_Best

phillw wrote: »

It would probably have gone quicker if we didn't hold the falklands. I can see our negotiations with them taking a lot longer than 20 years.

You can be good at something but it still take a long time if it's hard to do, which looking at the facts there is no way that kind of trade deal would be done quickly.

FWIW It hasn't stalled, they need to translate it into all languages.

Ha ha ha, ignore the problems with Switzerland which lies in the heart of EU-land.
Ignore the bullying.
Ignore the frictions between member countries.
And instead talk of the Falklands instead of wrangling, deforestation or the burning of the Amazon as a reason talks there took so long.
:rotfl:

FWIW you're wrong about the Mercosur deal waiting to be translated being the reason the deal is stalled, and it looks likely to fail as a result:

The European Union should be able to conclude a free-trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of South American countries by late 2020 in an optimistic scenario, a senior EU trade official said, adding that much would ride on Brazil’s attitude.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-could-be-ready-by-late-2020-in-best-case-eu-official-idUKKCN1VI15L

https://www.dw.com/en/amazon-fires-spark-european-rift-at-g7-over-mercosur-trade-deal/a-50154578
https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22200360/slovakia-prepared-to-block-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-over-amazon-fires.html

Dee_Best

Sailtheworld wrote: »

The deal is almost certainly going to be May's with a renamed backstop.

The EU are going to have to take pity on Johnson / Barclay soon. According to 'sources' the pair of clowns didn't realise their common sanitary and phytosanitary rules for the island of Ireland wouldn't do away with the need for customs checks on most goods.

They really need to ditch Cummings before next election - a back seat driver giving poor directions.

Please post the winning numbers for Saturday's big Lottery draw?

If you're not confident enough to do that, please don't pretend the confidence of knowing what is likely to happen about Brexit.
Especially given the recent unexpected turns of events.
I didn't see you forecast proroguing parliament or the dismissal of non-compliant MP's so just maybe it's your advisors that need the boot.

phillw

Dee_Best wrote: »

FWIW you're wrong about the Mercosur deal waiting to be translated being the reason the deal is stalled, and it looks likely to fail as a result:

Apparently so, no wait you might not be 100% correct :T

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/farming/will-ireland-have-a-vote-on-the-mercosur-deal-935735.html

When will a final text be available?
The text of the EU-Mercosur agreement will now have to proceed to so-called “legal scrubbing”, and translation, a process which can take between several months and up to two years to complete, before a final text is available.

It can't go any further until that is done, no matter what is said in the meantime. Therefore that is what has stalled it.