Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

MaxiRobriguez

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes hahaha they're teetering on the edge. Their GDP fell 0.1% in Q2 hahaha, while ours....ehm....oh...nevermind.

Ours fell more on a quarter-by-quarter basis because there was an artificial increase in production in Q1 via stockpiling, followed by an artificial reduction in car production in Q2 which would usually happen in Q3 (bringing forward of the annual plant maintenance periods). Both quarters together give a more accurate picture of the health of the economy which is slow growth.

What you'll find in this quarter is stockpiling increases again and there won't be a car production holiday, so we'll return to growth - probably around 0.5%, which means our earliest recession confirmation won't be until summer 2020.

We may get German recession confirmation before Christmas.

Conina

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes hahaha they're teetering on the edge. Their GDP fell 0.1% in Q2 hahaha, while ours....ehm....oh...nevermind.

->

The German economy could have continued to shrink over the summer as industrial production drops amid a dearth of orders, the Bundesbank said on Monday, suggesting that the euro zone’s biggest economy is now in a recession.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-bundesbank/german-economy-could-continue-to-shrink-bundesbank-idUKKCN1V90TT
The European Commission says German growth will be 0.5% this year vs the UK's at 1.3% (again EC figures) so who is more "on the edge" of recession, never mind other problems?

Far-right party surge in eastern German regions threatens Merkel's coalition

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-election-saxony/far-right-party-surge-in-eastern-german-regions-threatens-merkels-coalition-idUKKCN1VA1KW

Never mind though I'm sure Germans won't mind losing tens or even hundreds of thousands more jobs as car sales to the UK dry up and machinery imports stop thanks to EU intractability.

Sailtheworld

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

If we leave without a deal Germany will go into recession, it is teetering on the edge already.

Every cloud I suppose.

Conina

mayonnaise wrote: »

29 July: Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they scrap backstop

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/johnson-refuses-to-meet-eu-leaders-unless-they-scrap-backstop


17 August: Boris Johnson set to meet Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/105968/boris-johnson-set-meet-angela-merkel-and-emmanuel-macron

Has the backstop been scrapped then?

It's a great way to prove he tried when we sue don't you think?

Malthusian

triathlon wrote: »

Brexit or Remain was always going to hurt someone and a wave of anger not seen in this country for centuries is finally going to give one side the bad news soon, this was what May was incapable of doing, if only she had stood up to the Brexteers when she had the chance

May stood up to the Brexiteers and prevented Brexit for three years. I think criticising her for not staving it off for four or more is a little harsh. When a striker scores a hat trick you don't say "they should have buried that chance in the 80th minute and scored four, useless pillock".

triathlon

Malthusian wrote: »

May stood up to the Brexiteers and prevented Brexit for three years. I think criticising her for not staving it off for four or more is a little harsh. When a striker scores a hat trick you don't say "they should have buried that chance in the 80th minute and scored four, useless pillock".

Right now I personally have Remain slightly ahead should there be another referendum, but lets call it roughly 50 50 with a small tolerance on each side who is on top. But the fact remains that in the 50% Remain vote all the business owners, homeowners, people who embrace immigrants, decency and by far most of UK wealth and of course by far the most intelligent and educated.
The Brexit side hold all those that are angry at society and their lot and so lashed out, more are non homeowners, unskilled and racist and backward looking at a world that was probably not the one they thought it was.
Of course this is only in general and my opinion of the two opposing sides, but Remain are the cream of which there are 50% and Brexit are the sour bitter muddy water with the same following. The "democracy must be upheld" argument is just nonsense in this case, the foundations of this country right now are on the Remain side, Brexit have little to lose.

Somehow before October 31st article 50 must be ripped up and we must start again. Yes I know there will be mayhem, but a few knuckle dragging racists screaming in the street will not last all that long and they will tire and go home to watch Eastenders or X Factor eventually

Sailtheworld

triathlon wrote: »

Somehow before October 31st article 50 must be ripped up and we must start again. Yes I know there will be mayhem, but a few knuckle dragging racists screaming in the street will not last all that long and they will tire and go home to watch Eastenders or X Factor eventually

Apparently we have to keep the right happy. Not quite sure why - something about the war I think.

phillw

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Apparently we have to keep the right happy. Not quite sure why - something about the war I think.

Yeah, the world hasn't been grateful enough for our interference and need to show us more respect or something.

Boris is lying again (of course). He's telling the EU that the backstop must be removed as there is no way to get it through parliament, but he's telling parliament that he can do whatever he wants and they can't stop him. All while blaming the EU and anyone not far right enough that it's all their fault.

MaxiRobriguez

triathlon wrote: »

Right now I personally have Remain slightly ahead should there be another referendum, but lets call it roughly 50 50 with a small tolerance on each side who is on top. But the fact remains that in the 50% Remain vote all the business owners, homeowners, people who embrace immigrants, decency and by far most of UK wealth and of course by far the most intelligent and educated.
The Brexit side hold all those that are angry at society and their lot and so lashed out, more are non homeowners, unskilled and racist and backward looking at a world that was probably not the one they thought it was.
Of course this is only in general and my opinion of the two opposing sides, but Remain are the cream of which there are 50% and Brexit are the sour bitter muddy water with the same following. The "democracy must be upheld" argument is just nonsense in this case, the foundations of this country right now are on the Remain side, Brexit have little to lose.

Somehow before October 31st article 50 must be ripped up and we must start again. Yes I know there will be mayhem, but a few knuckle dragging racists screaming in the street will not last all that long and they will tire and go home to watch Eastenders or X Factor eventually

Let me guess.

You're middle class, white, went to university with grants or your parents paid it for you, got a job without much effort, got promoted with the same. You own a house, maybe one with four bedrooms, most of the mortgage is paid off already if not entirely. You've got a defined benefit pension if you're a bit older or if you're younger you've been able to contribute heavily to your DC scheme because your parents helped you onto the housing ladder so there's nothing else to save for. You think yourself cultured because you take city breaks to Europe. Life has been pretty easy for you so it's no surprise that people who don't have the same upstanding persona in society don't quite meet your expectations that you inherited rather than earned.

Is that unfair? Highly, so perhaps a little humility yourself wouldn't go amiss when putting 17 million people into the same box because you can't be arsed to get out of your echo chamber?

LHW99

Interestin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49420730