Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Tromking

buglawton wrote: »

A Hamburg German professor on the radio this morning: Britain isn't that important to Germany, it ranks only 4th position for Hamburg port activity. But Germany is a lot more important to Britain, right?

I think his point was that rather than compound Germany’s quite negative economic outlook any further with a hard Brexit, Germany might seek a compromise. For the record I see no sign of that in Merkel’s attitude.

Tromking

kingstreet wrote: »

That's the fault of the EU workers, or the big UK companies?

Any idea of the cost of UK companies tailoring their UK-born employee attendance patterns?

More or less than £4bn?

Nobody’s fault, other than I suppose a government setting up the conditions for a racket that encourages companies to rely on cheap
foreign Labour and land the U.K. with a £4bn welfare bill.
No problem with U.K. citizens accessing in work benefits, most of whom are fully invested in the country’s future and may have contributed to the pot in the past and will do in the future.

Enterprise_1701C

buglawton wrote: »

A Hamburg German professor on the radio this morning: Britain isn't that important to Germany, it ranks only 4th position for Hamburg port activity. But Germany is a lot more important to Britain, right?

If we leave without a deal Germany will go into recession, it is teetering on the edge already.

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

If we leave without a deal Germany will go into recession, it is teetering on the edge already.

Germany on the whole doesn't care. We're a nuisance to them. They aren't going to give you a super Brexit deal.

Tromking wrote: »

N
No problem with U.K. citizens accessing in work benefits

In work benefits means taxpayer subsidies for employers. Any penny in working tax credits is because an employer isn't paying someone enough, with the exception of those who choose not to work full time. And you (assuming you pay tax) are covering the shortfall.

Conina

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

What if it’s just not possible after 46 years of increasing integration? Let’s face it, if it were anybway easy it would have happened already.

If it's not possible that alone is a damned good reason for every member country to be questioning their membership, and it won't be escaping their attention I assure you. Who would want membership of a club which says it's voluntary but turns out to be compulsory, and do you realise what this makes the EU? That's right, a dictatorship.

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

We might as well have voted to award ourselves a million pounds each or free beer for ever. Democratic, but not going to happen.

We couldn't do that because it's bound to contravene an EU rule! Roll on October 31st.

mayonnaise

29 July: Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they scrap backstop

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/johnson-refuses-to-meet-eu-leaders-unless-they-scrap-backstop


17 August: Boris Johnson set to meet Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/105968/boris-johnson-set-meet-angela-merkel-and-emmanuel-macron

Has the backstop been scrapped then?

BikingBud

Herzlos wrote: »

Germany on the whole doesn't care. We're a nuisance to them. They aren't going to give you a super Brexit deal.

Below is a list showcasing 15 of Germany’s top trading partners. That is, countries that imported the most German shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total German exports.
United States: US$134 billion (8.6% of total German exports)
France: $124.4 billion (8%)
China: $109.9 billion (7.1%)
Netherlands: $99.8 billion (6.4%)
United Kingdom: $96.8 billion (6.2%)
Italy: $82.6 billion (5.3%)
Austria: $75.2 billion (4.8%)
Poland: $74.7 billion (4.8%)
Switzerland: $64.3 billion (4.1%)
Spain: $52.4 billion (3.4%)
Belgium: $52.3 billion (3.4%)
Czech Republic: $51.8 billion (3.3%)
Sweden: $31.1 billion (2%)
Hungary: $31 billion (2%)
Russia: $30.6 billion (2%)

Also

Germany incurred the highest trade surpluses at the expense of the following countries:
United States: US$57.8 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2018)
United Kingdom: $53.4 billion
France: $47.5 billion
Austria: $25.6 billion
Spain: $14 billion
Sweden: $12.3 billion
Italy: $11.4 billion
Poland: $9.6 billion
Switzerland: $9.6 billion
Denmark: $8.8 billion

So we consume more than Austria Spain and Italy combined. Just a nuisance?

mayonnaise

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

If we leave without a deal Germany will go into recession, it is teetering on the edge already.

Yes hahaha they're teetering on the edge. Their GDP fell 0.1% in Q2 hahaha, while ours....ehm....oh...nevermind.

triathlon

mayonnaise wrote: »

29 July: Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they scrap backstop

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/johnson-refuses-to-meet-eu-leaders-unless-they-scrap-backstop


17 August: Boris Johnson set to meet Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/105968/boris-johnson-set-meet-angela-merkel-and-emmanuel-macron

Has the backstop been scrapped then?

I have no idea what Boris is up to, all I do know is that he has going to unleash something awful sometime in October that will sink this country. There is just too much confidence in his actions to think he will just say sorry I cannot deliver Brexit, plus he would be slaughtered by the Brexiteers.

Brexit or Remain was always going to hurt someone and a wave of anger not seen in this country for centuries is finally going to give one side the bad news soon, this was what May was incapable of doing, if only she had stood up to the Brexteers when she had the chance

qwert_yuiop

Conina wrote: »

Who would want membership of a club which says it's voluntary but turns out to be compulsory, and do you realise what this makes the EU? That's right, a dictatorship.

Not compulsory or enforced. Just impractical and not feasible, and no more a dictatorship than the laws of physics.