Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Arklight

setmefree2 wrote: »

Rubbish. There remains a significant difference between polling companies on the level of support for the Labour party. Survation were miles out just recently on the European elections. In the European Elections their polls indicated Labour were on 23% - they received 14% of the vote in the actual election. It would seem sensible to be somewhat cautious of polls at the top end of Labour support if those same polls have very recently overstated Labour support in a national election.

It's best with polls to avoid the temptation of assuming that the polls that you’d like to be accurate are the ones that are, and that polls with results that you dislike are wrong ones that can be ignored.

Mori and YouGov got the European Elections correct.

YouGov latest poll from 23 to 24 July has

25% Tories
23% Lib Dem
19% Lab
17% Brexit Party
9% Green


The Lib Dems are currently taking Tory Remain voters from the Tories because of BJ. This poll was done before we found out just how Brexity the BJ government is. So, more Tories might consider voting Lib Dem yet. Also, if the Lib Dems can position themselves well on Green Issues there is a chance of winning some of the green vote. With all this momentum, the Lib Dems could pull in some more of that Labour vote.


The Lib Dems have everything to play for.

Maybe, but you are also just pointing to polls that reflect what appeals to you. For the last GE, Survation were the only accurate pollster.

The European elections are hard to read. Anecdotally it seems that mostly people with strong opinions about Brexit voted between the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party. I voted, but I was among a minority of people who bothered.

As exciting as the result may have been for ardent hard Brexiters, UK voter turnout was a low 37%. The Brexit Party's share of vote was less than half of this, about 15% of eligible voters.

I voted Lib Dem, as a protest vote to send a message to Labour, but I would never vote for them in a General Election. Especially not now they've become the pro-Remain Tory Party.

In many ways this is helpful to Labour as not many of the LDs remaining left leaning voters will be especially interested in Jo Swinson and her tax slashing, benefit axing, corporate welfare promoting, statue to Maggie-ing brand of "liberal" politics.

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

Hmm, you mean offering young people policies they actually like makes them vote for you?

Yes, you're right. Obviously that doesn't count.

They might vote for you once but never again after you fail to keep your promises. The way that the LibDems lost most of their seats after promising the earth to students.

SpiderLegs

Arklight wrote: »

Hmm, you mean offering young people policies they actually like makes them vote for you?

Yes, you're right. Obviously that doesn't count.

Of course when the tories do the same thing for their core support it’s spun in a slightly different way.

ess0two

Arklight wrote: »

Hmm, you mean offering young people policies they actually like makes them vote for you?

Yes, you're right. Obviously that doesn't count.

True, like Turkeys voting for xmas.

Arklight

cogito wrote: »

They might vote for you once but never again after you fail to keep your promises. The way that the LibDems lost most of their seats after promising the earth to students.

The Lib Dems promised never to vote for an increase in tuition fees, then did exactly the opposite when they got into government, based on many of the votes they got for promising not to raise tuition fees.

It was hardly promising the world. It was promising the bare minimum they should have, and then reneging on it.

PaulW1965

I was a member of the Labour Party for 30 years. I left in 2015 when Corbyn became leader. Recently, I became a member of the Lib Dems.



Why would anyone go back to the Labour Party? The present day LP is full of hate. Hate for Jews and hate for Blairites. Corbyn is full of hate and can't wait to get his hands on the levers of power to fully enact his hate.


Even if JC was gotten rid off, the left now fully control the LP. To be honest I don't know why more MPs haven't defected.

Arklight

PaulW1965 wrote: »

I was a member of the Labour Party for 30 years. I left in 2015 when Corbyn became leader. Recently, I became a member of the Lib Dems.



Why would anyone go back to the Labour Party? The present day LP is full of hate. Hate for Jews and hate for Blairites. Corbyn is full of hate and can't wait to get his hands on the levers of power to fully enact his hate.


Even if JC was gotten rid off, the left now fully control the LP. To be honest I don't know why more MPs haven't defected.

Yes, Labour is a left wing socialist party. I appreciate that when you joined under Blair this wasn't especially apparent so I can understand your frustration.

Incidentally I was a Lib Dem member because throughout the time you were a New Labour member, they were to the left of Blair and Brown.

I tore up my membership card when they decided to become a kind of vestibule of the Conservative Party. Although looking back to that time now looks like a liberal utopia.

At the risk of sounding like a hate filled leftist. The Lib Dems have just elected a leader whose voting record is roughly identical to Jacob Rees Mogg's. Although to be fair JRM hasn't ever demanded the taxpayer fund a statue of Margaret Thatcher. If this is really what appeals to you I can't imagine the lack of your £6 a month will be a huge loss to the Labour movement.

The reason that more of the PLP haven't left is because they know what side their bread is buttered. Jess Philips et al would much rather keep sniping at the membership hoping that Corbyn will be ousted by someone with more tactical wherwithal than her and her band of hapless Blairites, while claiming her MPs salary and expenses, than doing a Chuka and joining a new party noone wants.

Honey_Badger

Arklight wrote: »

Yes, Labour is a left wing socialist party. I appreciate that when you joined under Blair this wasn't especially apparent so I can understand your frustration.

I’m not sure if it’s your maths or lack of knowledge of the Labour Party that’s let you down. 2015 - 30 = 1985 which is when Neil Kinnock was leader. Blair didn’t become leader until 1994.

setmefree2

Arklight wrote: »

Although to be fair JRM hasn't ever demanded the taxpayer fund a statue of Margaret Thatcher.

She didn't "demand" a statue of MT - she expressed an opinion on placing a statue in the grounds of Westminster to a Daily Mail journalist.

She justified her position on feminist grounds and claimed that Thatcher was able to “single-handedly transform the fortunes of women”, accusing opponents of the Thatcher statue as being “pretty sexist”. Swinson praised Thatcher for her skills negotiating the UK rebate and for taking the UK into the single market, but was also critical of Thatcher for the poll tax and stressed she did not consider herself a Thatcherite.[83][84][85][86] In addition, she wrote that there should be a statue of the first female First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon in time, though she disagrees with Scottish independence.[87][88]

Wiki

setmefree2

Arklight wrote: »

At the risk of sounding like a hate filled leftist. The Lib Dems have just elected a leader whose voting record is roughly identical to Jacob Rees Mogg's.

• State Educated
• First class degree from the LSE in Management
• People's Vote Campaigner from the Get-Go
• Opposed the Iraq War
• Supported measures to tackle climate change, such as conserving energy in the home and the Liberal Democrat policy of introducing green taxes while reducing income tax to offset the burden.
• Sought to promote fathers' rights in regard to parental leave, bringing forth new legislation which allowed parents to divide parental leave between themselves with an aim to encourage fathers to spend more time with their newborn infants.
• Supports flexible working.
• Promotes employee ownership.
• Called for a "wellbeing index" to be introduced, to be compared against GDP.
• Attended anti-Trump protests
• An active campaigner against packaging of chocolate Easter eggs
• Wrote a book
  Equal Power: And How You Can Make It Happens.
• She's a Humanist
• She runs marathons.

How does that make her like JRM?