Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

buglawton

Yes a huge chance of pre-emptive GE. There won't be a better moment for Boris. Odds are 14/1 for a September GE, that's a betting bargain.

triathlon

The one saving grace with Boris and his stupid Brexit views is that he will never crash the property market. He is too heavily invested along with his wide circle of influential friends and family. So sorry to the scorched earth brigade who support Brexit as a means to bring normal hardworking people to their knees so you can step in.

It really is a case of be careful what you wish for, you guys could not survive in perfect financial conditions, living in HMO and bedsits etc, wait until these new lot get their way

Tromking

buglawton wrote: »

Yes a huge chance of pre-emptive GE. There won't be a better moment for Boris. Odds are 14/1 for a September GE, that's a betting bargain.

Looking like a clear choice for Brussels now. Carry on with the WA is not for changing mantra, or risk a new Boris administration with working majority just before we leave on Halloween.

TREVORCOLMAN

triathlon wrote: »

No, cannot blame Brexit for the rain, but you will be able to blame Brexit for loss of jobs and income and not having a roof over your head to keep that rain off.

I will let you know when that happens - you will have a long wait.

adindas

There were few people in conservative who scaremongered that if Bojo won the Tori leadership champaign they would see Joremy Corbyn become a Prime Minister by calling a no confidence vote. These people hsould be ashamed by now.

Jeremy Corbyn rules out confidence vote in Boris Johnson until September as 40 Tory MPs braced to block a no-deal Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/24/jeremy-corbyn-rules-confidence-vote-boris-johnson-september/

It is a sensible decision, knowing that they will be facing Brexit Party in the General Election. Let alone the declining popularity of Labour recently. Anyway how come the snap election to be done in such a short time ??

Boris Johnson prepared to trigger autumn election if Brussels won't budge
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-has-just-99-days-to-seal-a-brex/

Unlike Teresa May he has the brain supported by a team who have brains and believe in brexit.

Teresa May is helped by another worst civil servant negotiator Olly Robin, is helped by a chancellor and Justice Minister who does not believe in Brexit, who keep frustrating Brexit. These people are the main architects of Theresa May Botched deal. Glad to see all of them go before there were sacked. Resignation is an honourable thing but not if you already know that you will be sacked anyway.

If there is a general election Brexit party will win, all they need to do is to talk woth the conservative to form a ruling coalition. The game is over, Brexit will be cemented at this time.

Arklight

According to Survation, the UK's most effective polling company and the only one to correctly predict the last election, Labour would win a GE with a 6 point lead. Tories second. The Lib Dems and the Brexit Party would be left in 3rd and 4th place fighting out their single issue policy, to no real purpose, with voters who think the only purpose of a government is to enact / block their Brexit vision.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/new-poll-puts-labour-six-points-ahead-of-the-pack-after-corbyn-backs-peoples-vote/12/07/

Filo25

Arklight wrote: »

According to Survation, the UK's most effective polling company and the only one to correctly predict the last election, Labour would win a GE with a 6 point lead. Tories second. The Lib Dems and the Brexit Party would be left in 3rd and 4th place fighting out their single issue policy, to no real purpose, with voters who think the only purpose of a government is to enact / block their Brexit vision.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/new-poll-puts-labour-six-points-ahead-of-the-pack-after-corbyn-backs-peoples-vote/12/07/

Surely the last election was the European election, when Survation massively overstated Labour support and understated support for the LibDems.

Yougov had an interesting piece on it, they speculate the reason some pollsters are having issues at present is because some who voted Labour at the last election no longer recall/admit doing so when asked by pollsters today, so for the pollsters who use past voting intention as a factor in weighting their polls it throws things off a long way (Yougov weight based on how people told them they voted after the election, rather than how they say they voted when asked now)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/17/false-recall-and-how-it-affects-polling

Filo25

In terms of next election my prediction is that the Tories and Brexit Party will "be forced" to form a pact to stop us nasty old Remainers frustrating the will of the people, and will win a GE off the back of it

Due to the other parties still being fragmented (it is pretty much impossible for someone like the LibDems to form a pre-election pact with Labour, due to Labour's ambivalent at best stance on Brexit, and how toxic Corbyn is to so many LibDem voters and potential voters)

movilogo

Labour winning GE won't change anything. There are Leavers in Remainers in Labour too. They will do same circus as in Tories.

This is the fundamental problem. Two party politics in dead. We need Leave vs Remain parties now. Long live new 2-party politics.

SpiderLegs

I said weeks ago that BJ would be setting this up as being forced to have an early election by a combination of EU intransigence and a remain parliament.

Much as I think (at the moment) that BJ is at best just an even worse version of Cameron, there is no way on gods earth I would vote in a way that supported Corbyn getting into no 10.
No chance. If that means risking a tough period of less growth and restructuring of our economy then I will take that.

I think when push comes to shove the normal people in this country (I.e those who don’t live their lives going on protest marches or spamming Twitter all day) will be very scared now that they know what the current Labour Party is all about and that message is hammered home in a GE campaign.

It is of course a big risk, but if the polls start shifting towards a possible 50 seat Tory majority then it’s a much bigger risk for the anti-boris lot.

Anyone doing noddy calculations based around the eu elections is in for a shock.