Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

SpiderLegs

Filo25 wrote: »

Do BP voters trust the Tories enough to vote for them on the basis of nice rhetoric, before they deliver Brexit or do they want to see it delivered first, I think some will and some won't, I also think the Tories will bleed a bit of support to the LibDems from their new approach, although probably not as much as they gain from BP.

I think you when you factor in the risk of Corbyn it’s a very brave Tory voter that sticks with the BP.

We are not talking everyone here. If only one third of the current BP polling switches back to the tories, that has a very big impact on a FPTP outcome.

Also remember the LDs are first or second in only 50 seats. They have a long way to go to make a serious impact on FPTP. And the only outcome of mass voting for them by ex-tories is to put JC in power.

Takedap

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I beg to differ. Brexit is like a religion. It's about faith, not facts.

cogito wrote: »

IN other words, exactly the same as the EU.

Not really. We've had 40 years inside the EU so we know what it's like.


Do you think the country was in a better state 40 years ago than it is today? (If so, please provide examples).

SpiderLegs

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Sadly, I agree. My point was to challenge those who said that the so-called "victory" of the Brexit party at the EU election would allegedly mean that now the UK is a pro-Brexit or pro-hard-Brexit country. No, that's not clear at all from those elections, as I explained.

The Brexit party have had their victory. They got the best they could realistically hope for which was yesterday’s new government. The poster who thinks the BP could actually win any more than a small number of seats is deluded.

IMO Britain is now a ‘just-get-it-done’ country and I think people who act to prevent that will be the ones who end up the bad guys. That could easily be BJ if he takes a too hardline approach.

Moby

SpiderLegs wrote: »

The tories don’t need to do a pact. They just need to adopt the single Brexit party policy as their own. Which they appear to have now done. Once you do that then the Brexit party is left with disillusioned ex-labour voters who would never have voted Tory anyway. It doesn’t hurt the tory vote but just further split the previous labour vote. Because labour is sat on the fence they can’t really offer anything to anyone other than their normal core support. Labour’s naval gazing on this is probably going to be the end of JC and about time too.

Three years of JC and TM desperately trying to appeal to everyone and ending up appealing to no-one. Thank god the fat lady is finally getting ready to sing.

That's clearly Cummings strategy and it's a clever one that could win as I said above.... but it's also high risk because it will hurt the tory vote in the South East and West Country; the tories could haemorrhage a lot of support to the Lib Dems through it. The direction in Labour is also moving towards remain, plus the tories in Scotland will clearly lose seats with Johnson as leader. I also am aware Wales now has a majority for remain. That's not helping Labour but Plaid and the Lib Dems are seeing a surge. Also younger, new voters tend to be remain; Labour energised them in 2017; no reason with a few promises about student debt etc it couldn't happen again. Corbyn now needs to step up or give Starmer a chance!

adindas

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Sadly, I agree.

My point was to challenge those who said that the so-called "victory" of the Brexit party at the EU election would allegedly mean that now the UK is a pro-Brexit or pro-hard-Brexit country. No, that's not clear at all from those elections, as I explained.

Oh noo, Keep fighting you are not as tough as Margareth Thatcher.
This is one of Margareth Thatcher. most powerful quote
“Defeat? I do not recognize the meaning of the word.”

Moby

Arklight wrote: »

According to Survation, the UK's most effective polling company and the only one to correctly predict the last election, Labour would win a GE with a 6 point lead. Tories second. The Lib Dems and the Brexit Party would be left in 3rd and 4th place fighting out their single issue policy, to no real purpose, with voters who think the only purpose of a government is to enact / block their Brexit vision.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/new-poll-puts-labour-six-points-ahead-of-the-pack-after-corbyn-backs-peoples-vote/12/07/

That poll is heartening and indicates hopefully in a general election people will, like in 2017 not just vote on brexit. The Euro election has distorted things and making assumptions from it about the support for the brexit party is naive. Corbyn now needs to step up though.

cogito

Takedap wrote: »

Not really. We've had 40 years inside the EU so we know what it's like.


Do you think the country was in a better state 40 years ago than it is today? (If so, please provide examples).

27 years actually and we do know what it’s like which is why many people want no further part of it.

And I do think that the country is in a better state economically than it was 40 years ago. In other ways it’s worse. Not that either of those two things have much to do with the EU.

ess0two

Moby wrote: »

That's clearly Cummings strategy and it's a clever one that could win as I said above.... but it's also high risk because it will hurt the tory vote in the South East and West Country; the tories could haemorrhage a lot of support to the Lib Dems through it. The direction in Labour is also moving towards remain, plus the tories in Scotland will clearly lose seats with Johnson as leader. I also am aware Wales now has a majority for remain. That's not helping Labour but Plaid and the Lib Dems are seeing a surge. Also younger, new voters tend to be remain; Labour energised them in 2017; no reason with a few promises about student debt etc it couldn't happen again. Corbyn now needs to step up or give Starmer a chance!

A promise of no uni fees energised younger voters over to Labour,nothing more,nothing less.

setmefree2

Arklight wrote: »

According to Survation, the UK's most effective polling company /

Rubbish. There remains a significant difference between polling companies on the level of support for the Labour party. Survation were miles out just recently on the European elections. In the European Elections their polls indicated Labour were on 23% - they received 14% of the vote in the actual election. It would seem sensible to be somewhat cautious of polls at the top end of Labour support if those same polls have very recently overstated Labour support in a national election.

It's best with polls to avoid the temptation of assuming that the polls that you’d like to be accurate are the ones that are, and that polls with results that you dislike are wrong ones that can be ignored.

Mori and YouGov got the European Elections correct.

YouGov latest poll from 23 to 24 July has

25% Tories
23% Lib Dem
19% Lab
17% Brexit Party
9% Green


The Lib Dems are currently taking Tory Remain voters from the Tories because of BJ. This poll was done before we found out just how Brexity the BJ government is. So, more Tories might consider voting Lib Dem yet. Also, if the Lib Dems can position themselves well on Green Issues there is a chance of winning some of the green vote. With all this momentum, the Lib Dems could pull in some more of that Labour vote.


The Lib Dems have everything to play for.

Arklight

ess0two wrote: »

A promise of no uni fees energised younger voters over to Labour,nothing more,nothing less.

Hmm, you mean offering young people policies they actually like makes them vote for you?

Yes, you're right. Obviously that doesn't count.