Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

SouthLondonUser

I think the proportional EU elections might be used as some broad proxy for how people would vote in a second referendum, not for how they would vote in a first past the post general election.

Filo25

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I think the proportional EU elections might be used as some broad proxy for how people would vote in a second referendum, not for how they would vote in a first past the post general election.

Agreed and even then it is hard to read too much into those who voted Labour and Tory.

But I do think Labour is bleeding a lot of support at present just from people I speak to, who can predict if they will come back "home" in a GE though

SpiderLegs

Filo25 wrote: »

In terms of next election my prediction is that the Tories and Brexit Party will "be forced" to form a pact to stop us nasty old Remainers frustrating the will of the people, and will win a GE off the back of it

Due to the other parties still being fragmented (it is pretty much impossible for someone like the LibDems to form a pre-election pact with Labour, due to Labour's ambivalent at best stance on Brexit, and how toxic Corbyn is to so many LibDem voters and potential voters)

The tories don’t need to do a pact. They just need to adopt the single Brexit party policy as their own. Which they appear to have now done. Once you do that then the Brexit party is left with disillusioned ex-labour voters who would never have voted Tory anyway. It doesn’t hurt the tory vote but just further split the previous labour vote. Because labour is sat on the fence they can’t really offer anything to anyone other than their normal core support. Labour’s naval gazing on this is probably going to be the end of JC and about time too.

Three years of JC and TM desperately trying to appeal to everyone and ending up appealing to no-one. Thank god the fat lady is finally getting ready to sing.

SpiderLegs

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I think the proportional EU elections might be used as some broad proxy for how people would vote in a second referendum, not for how they would vote in a first past the post general election.

Time to move on. There is not going to be a second referendum.

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

According to Survation, the UK's most effective polling company and the only one to correctly predict the last election, Labour would win a GE with a 6 point lead. Tories second. The Lib Dems and the Brexit Party would be left in 3rd and 4th place fighting out their single issue policy, to no real purpose, with voters who think the only purpose of a government is to enact / block their Brexit vision.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/new-poll-puts-labour-six-points-ahead-of-the-pack-after-corbyn-backs-peoples-vote/12/07/

That’s two weeks old and that is a long time in politics.
It will be interesting to see the next lot of polls now that we have a new PM.

movilogo

Three years of JC and TM desperately trying to appeal to everyone and ending up appealing to no-one. Thank god the fat lady is finally getting ready to sing.

^^this

Both TM and JC sat on fence and didn't take side. With Brexit, there is no middle ground - it either happens or cancelled.

This gave rise to Brexit party and LibDem as polarized Leave and Remain parties.

BJ could see the way out. If he delivers Brexit (whatever hodge podge that means), he can win back traditional conservatitive votes, some Leave votes from Labour and make Brexit party history.

So he has lot go gain by making Brexit happen and nothing to lose by making Brexit happen.

When TM was dithering on Brexit, JC could have established himself as true Brexit party (or true Remain party). But he missed that boat.

Current politics is ruled by polarization. It is like goalkeeper jumping on one side to stop a penalty shoot. You jump on correct side, you may win the game. You stay in middle, you are sure to lose the game.

cogito

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I beg to differ. Brexit is like a religion. It's about faith, not facts.

IN other words, exactly the same as the EU.

Filo25

SpiderLegs wrote: »

The tories don’t need to do a pact. They just need to adopt the single Brexit party policy as their own. Which they appear to have now done. Once you do that then the Brexit party is left with disillusioned ex-labour voters who would never have voted Tory anyway. It doesn’t hurt the tory vote but just further split the previous labour vote. Because labour is sat on the fence they can’t really offer anything to anyone other than their normal core support. Labour’s naval gazing on this is probably going to be the end of JC and about time too.

Three years of JC and TM desperately trying to appeal to everyone and ending up appealing to no-one. Thank god the fat lady is finally getting ready to sing.

Do BP voters trust the Tories enough to vote for them on the basis of nice rhetoric, before they deliver Brexit or do they want to see it delivered first, I think some will and some won't, I also think the Tories will bleed a bit of support to the LibDems from their new approach, although probably not as much as they gain from BP.

Filo25

movilogo wrote: »

^^this

Both TM and JC sat on fence and didn't take side. With Brexit, there is no middle ground - it either happens or cancelled.

This gave rise to Brexit party and LibDem as polarized Leave and Remain parties.

BJ could see the way out. If he delivers Brexit (whatever hodge podge that means), he can win back traditional conservatitive votes, some Leave votes from Labour and make Brexit party history.

So he has lot go gain by making Brexit happen and nothing to lose by making Brexit happen.

When TM was dithering on Brexit, JC could have established himself as true Brexit party (or true Remain party). But he missed that boat.

Current politics is ruled by polarization. It is like goalkeeper jumping on one side to stop a penalty shoot. You jump on correct side, you may win the game. You stay in middle, you are sure to lose the game.

I think the Brexit debate could have gone differently with a more competent politician than May in charge but we are where we are now, but I fully agree these days most votes are for "Remain" and "No Deal", messing about in the middle (as Labour continue to try to do) will just get your vote picked apart.

SouthLondonUser

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Time to move on. There is not going to be a second referendum.

Sadly, I agree. My point was to challenge those who said that the so-called "victory" of the Brexit party at the EU election would allegedly mean that now the UK is a pro-Brexit or pro-hard-Brexit country. No, that's not clear at all from those elections, as I explained.