Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

adindas

gfplux wrote: »

So it’s a no deal at the end of October. It must be assumed that this will have some effect. Anyone posting here who is in a job that might be slightly effected?
It would be foolish to think that no deal will have no effect however anyone planning on travelling in/out of the EU in November?

Certainly yes. But the impact of no-deal is not only in the UK. For few EU countries the impact for no-deal brexit is even worse. for isntance Ireland and other EU countries which depend on the EU subsidy.

The impact to Ireland is the most severe as there will be food shortage, starvation, considering 85% of their import/export depend on the UK port and will have a headline defixit of -0.05 0.5 - 2.5%.Irealnd have the power to Veto Eu fianl agreement.

In your own negotiation if the option is to leave without a deal or to have a deal that will suck your blood for the rest of your life and leave you with humiliation, which one you choose ??

In the past there were a few examples where countries prepared to go war for this reason alone, let alone just Brexit which only have a short-term impact (not a long term).

buglawton

Ireland first entered an agreement as an EU member to maintain a hard border with any country external to the EU. Later, it entered an agreement with the UK to keep an open border with NI. At that time there wasn't a contradiction. Post Brexit there obviously will be.

So one of these must happen and be adhered to forever:
1. Ireland renegotiates its terms of EU membership to allow a de facto open border with UK regardless what the UK does (electronic border arrangements).
2. Ireland renegotiates the GFA so it can have a hard(er) external border with NI.
3. The UK does not leave the EU.
4. The UK accepts May's WA in perpetuity.

The current trajectory means that Ireland will be left in a contradictory legal position. The EU doesn't look like it's going to help Ireland on this. I don't think the Irish tail is going to wag the British dog either.

Big slab of political fudge upcoming.

Moe_The_Bartender

That is exactly the point I've made elsewhere. If the UK ever manages to leave the EU, it will not close the border under its obligations under the GFA and the Common Travel Area and doesn’t need to complete any deal with the EU to keep it open. The RoI has signed the EU treaties which say that it must seal its border with any non member and the GFA which says that it must keep the border with NI open. These are mutually exclusive and will test the EU's ability to square circles.

This is the only reason why the EU insisted on the backstop and May and Robbins deceitfully went along with it.

SouthLondonUser

Adidans, repeating the same few sentences verbatim (in a broken English) doesn't really add much to the discussion.

Also, can you please clarify one thing for me? Why is it remainers are accused of Project fear if they decry the negative impact of no deal, but you say that no deal will cause "starvation" in Ireland? Do you not see a sliiiight inconsistency and contradiction there? Care to explain?

Arklight

buglawton wrote: »

Ireland first entered an agreement as an EU member to maintain a hard border with any country external to the EU. Later, it entered an agreement with the UK to keep an open border with NI. At that time there wasn't a contradiction. Post Brexit there obviously will be.

So one of these must happen and be adhered to forever:
1. Ireland renegotiates its terms of EU membership to allow a de facto open border with UK regardless what the UK does (electronic border arrangements).
2. Ireland renegotiates the GFA so it can have a hard(er) external border with NI.
3. The UK does not leave the EU.
4. The UK accepts May's WA in perpetuity.

The current trajectory means that Ireland will be left in a contradictory legal position. The EU doesn't look like it's going to help Ireland on this. I don't think the Irish tail is going to wag the British dog either.

Big slab of political fudge upcoming.

A unified Ireland would solve this.

buglawton

Arklight wrote: »

A unified Ireland would solve this.

It would. But the 4 options I listed are ones that exist within the next 10 years.

Takedap

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Adidans, repeating the same few sentences verbatim (in a broken English) doesn't really add much to the discussion.

Also, can you please clarify one thing for me? Why is it remainers are accused of Project fear if they decry the negative impact of no deal, but you say that no deal will cause "starvation" in Ireland? Do you not see a sliiiight inconsistency and contradiction there? Care to explain?

What? No sunlit uplands?


What about all the money I've spent building my Unicorn stable?


Seriously, if it's now all about damage limitation, why are we still doing it?

adindas

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Adidans, repeating the same few sentences verbatim (in a broken English) doesn't really add much to the discussion.

Well glad to see, at least it is moving forwards already, as you previously commenting that you do not understand what I am writing. Also, you were talking about ignore list. Also my answer is relevant to the question.

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Also, can you please clarify one thing for me? Why is it remainers are accused of Project fear if they decry the negative impact of no deal, but you say that no deal will cause "starvation" in Ireland? Do you not see a sliiiight inconsistency and contradiction there? Care to explain?

[FONT=&quot]Well no thanks. Unless you acknowledge that you could understand what I am writing and I am no longer in your ignore list, the same thing when you admitted that there is no more chance for the second referendum. There is no point wasting time to explain to people when they do not understand what you are writing and you have been put on the ignore list.[/FONT]

Moe_The_Bartender

The possibility of a united Ireland is infinitesimal unless the south accepts 400,000 unwilling protestants and is happy to accept responsibility for the money that NI gets under the Barnett formula. Of course, their buddies in the EU might help out with the latter.

adindas

buglawton wrote: »

Ireland first entered an agreement as an EU member to maintain a hard border with any country external to the EU. Later, it entered an agreement with the UK to keep an open border with NI. At that time there wasn't a contradiction. Post Brexit there obviously will be.

So one of these must happen and be adhered to forever:
1. Ireland renegotiates its terms of EU membership to allow a de facto open border with UK regardless what the UK does (electronic border arrangements).
2. Ireland renegotiates the GFA so it can have a hard(er) external border with NI.
3. The UK does not leave the EU.
4. The UK accepts May's WA in perpetuity.

The current trajectory means that Ireland will be left in a contradictory legal position. The EU doesn't look like it's going to help Ireland on this. I don't think the Irish tail is going to wag the British dog either.

Big slab of political fudge upcoming.

Both Ireland and UK (Norther Ireland) do not want border. It is only that the EU keep making the Irish border as an issue to keep UK in the EU. So UK could still become a cash cow and sub-servient of the EU under ECJ. In addition, the EU is really nervous if the UK is not tied to the EU and after a decade of brexit, the UK triumph the EU will be over.


JRM solution the make it Irish boder as the EU problem is a good solution. Make it the Irish border as the EU problem Both IE and UK do not want border, but in the no-deal scenario EU insist on erecting a hard border then let them do it. Ireland will suffer much more than the UK.