Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

adindas

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I do not see that at all, not in the slightest.

I don’t think anyone is debating (I am certainly not) that Ireland would suffer from a hard Brexit – that’s quite obvious. That’s not the point. The point is that the border is a very real and serious issue and, AFAIK, Brexiters still have to explain how they would handle it.

SOME checks could be carried out not at the border, but farther away. This would reduce congestion at the border but would not reduce the delays – some checks still have to be carried out; how about all the just-in-time production at car factories, for example? Would factories need to keep more stock in the UK? What would be the costs? How feasible is it to find more warehouse space? Etc etc etc

Also, even if you want to carry out checks elsewhere, how do you make sure that some of the cargo isn’t magically offloaded somewhere between the border and this location where the checks should be carried out? The potential for evasion seems huge.

There’s also the point raised by the Financial Times: if the UK goes ahead with its proposal not to charge VAT on personal imports, this would create a huge incentive for people to buy stuff in the Republic, claim VAT at the border, and bring their purchases to NI. Think of the effect on retailers in NI. Note this isn’t about exploiting exchange rate differences – it’s about VAT.

I know Brexiters do ‘grand vision’ but don’t do pesky little details; however, that’s exactly where the devil is…

[FONT=&quot]Nice to see you againn=SouthLondonUser;[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I thought I am on your ignore list ??? [/FONT]:):):):)

[FONT=&quot]Anyway, the above document is the official document from Irish government. They are getting scared now knowing that they will not be so lucky thisd time to get TM, the worst negotiator, the worst prime minister. Sofar Ireland have been used as a Pawn by the EU. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]From the beginning Irish border is very simple to be solved, UK do not even need to think a second. As suggested by JRM just make the Irish border as the EU problem rather than the UK problem. State clearly loudly, UK do not want any barrier if EU want to put the barrier let them do it.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The international community would put the blame on the EU who insist on the Irish border. Sofar Ireland have been used by the EU to keep the UK in the EU so they could keep to become a cashcow and sub servient of the EU underECJ.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Keep in mind with No deal Brexit, Ireland will suffer the most, as they will be isolated. 85% of their import export depend on the UK ports.
[/FONT]
Reality Check: The Brexit challenge for Irish trade

Moreover, to replace 85% of the port you rely on for your export import in a very short time is unthinkable if you will have a headline deficit in the region of -0.5 percent to -1.5 percent of GDP.
“Under the disorderly Brexit scenario, this could involve a headline deficit in the region of 0.5 percent to -1.5 percent of GDP for the next year, depending on the magnitude of the economic shock.

Brexit nightmare for Varadkar: Irish economy to suffer under no deal - 50,000 jobs at risk

SouthLondonUser

adindas wrote: »

[FONT=&quot]From the beginning Irish border is very simple to be solved, UK do not even need to think a second about it. As suggested by JRM just make Irish border as the EU problem rather than the UK problem. State clearly loudly, UK do not want any barrier if EU want to put the barrier let them do it.[/FONT]

That is beyond ridiculous. That someone could think of suggesting it without realising how non-nonsensical it is is actually worrying.

Let's play this out: you are saying that Ireland and the EU could choose NOT to have border checks with NI?

Leaving immigration aside for a second, do you genuinely think there is the option of NOT having a border? How would both parties levy VAT tariffs etc? How would compliance with whatever regulations each side will put in place be verified?

Tromking

BJ reportedly already in talks with Labour rebels.
Brexit....QED.

adindas

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

That is beyond ridiculous. That someone could think of suggesting it without realising how non-nonsensical it is is actually worrying.

Let's play this out: you are saying that Ireland and the EU could choose NOT to have border checks with NI?

Leaving immigration aside for a second, do you genuinely think there is the option of NOT having a border? How would both parties levy VAT tariffs etc? How would compliance with whatever regulations each side will put in place be verified?

As suggested let make it their own problem.
They could choose whatever they want.

Ireland have the power to veto the final EU agreement. If it is about survival, everyone will do everything in order to survive including to veto EU final agreement. This is the last thing that the EU want as this will disrupt EU and leave EU with no confidence

SouthLondonUser

Are you serious or kidding?

It's our problem, too. Suppose for a second the EU didn't impose a border, and ignore immigration for a second.
How would the UK levy VAT and tariffs, check compliance with its own regulations safety standards for products etc?

adindas

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Are you serious or kidding?

It's our problem, too. Suppose for a second the EU didn't impose a border, and ignore immigration for a second.
How would the UK levy VAT and tariffs, check compliance with its own regulations safety standards for products etc?

Well serious.

SouthLondonUser

Then can you answer the questions?

adindas

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Then can you answer the questions?

The Irish hard border as the EU problem rather than the UK problem. State clearly loudly, UK do not want any barrier if EU want to put the barrier let them do it. EU is more interested to put a hard border because they want to keep UK as a cash cow and subservient of the EU under ECJ.

From the beginning Irish border is very simple to be solved, UK do not even need to think a second.

lisyloo

adindas wrote: »

I do not think many people deny the short term impact on UK economy, but so is the EU. UK have been in the EU for a few decades, so leaving will have a short time impact.

But what about the long term impact ??
Also keep in mind here democracy here is at stake. Democracy is priceless, no money could buy. Let alone it is just a short term impact ??

Trade deals take many years to establish.
All the evidence is that we’re rubbish at negotiating, trump (or rather his team) are ace negotiators, we aren’t going to stand up the trump and he has the ability to throw his toys out the Pram.

How do you define short term?
Jacob Dee OMG says 50 years (and he’s an ardent brexiteer).

I don’t agree democracy is priceless at all.
Ruining our country and economy over a decision people didn’t understand is just suicidal.

triathlon

Arklight wrote: »

Brexiters are very confused about whether they like Putin or not. He's right wing, authoritarian and conservative, which they love. But he also seems to fail to recognise England's awesome greatness and global importance, which they're not so sure about.

Brexiters are just confused end of. Somehow the whole country now is sat on a powder keg with one lunatic Brexit supporter with the fuse and match in his hand which he has every intention of lighting in order to unify the UK and give him at least a short period in Number 10 before he blows himself to bits.

The only reason we are talking about this on here is because selfish self serving Brexit voting failures who have not achieved in life want to start a scorched earth policy and an obvious property crash