Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

RealElement47

What will happen come Oct?

Can they get a deal through in time?

The clock is ticking

buglawton

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Unless there is a bridge from the US which I have missed, I presume goods from the US arrive either by ship or by plane, not by lorry...

@Fran Klee a few posts ago:
"Would there be any point my explaining that currently container-loads of goods for my company arrive regularly here in the UK, having been sealed in the USA on dispatch?"
It seems there wasn't.

gfplux

adindas wrote: »

It is a very good point. I think everyone rational know the answer.
People make everything a problem that should not be a problem if they want to achieve something.

Unfortunately the hardcore remoaners and the EU this issue as a sticking point for a very obvious reason.



UK could simply do Canadian style trade with the EU but the EU Have the interest to keep UK in the EU by making the Irish border as a problem.

I mention it many times to hardcore reamoaners, the EU keep the Irish border as a sticking point because they want to keep UK as a cash cow and subservient of the EU under ECJ

Remoaners again, this time twice. We Remainers just switch off when you name calling drowns out the rest of your post.

adindas

buglawton wrote: »

@Fran Klee a few posts ago:
"Would there be any point my explaining that currently container-loads of goods for my company arrive regularly here in the UK, having been sealed in the USA on dispatch?"
It seems there wasn't.

It is only a blind cannot see that, the EU keep making the Irish border as an issue because they want to keep UK as a cash cow and subservient of the EU under ECJ. Also they are very afraid the UK will triumph in the future. When this things happen that is the end EU.

Just one example the Irish official document is now proposing the check to be done not at the border. Why all of the sudden they propose the things that they vehemently rejected it in the past???

They are getting scared now that time will come, they will not be so lucky like the negotiation under Teresa May. Both incoming PM have promised of no deal, so whoever become a prime minister, UK will walk away if the deal is inferior.

From the beginning Irish border is very simple if you make it the Eu problem. If the EU insist on no deal, “go for it” With UK withhold the EUR 39bil and stop paying annual contribution will mean no more money to continue development, which depend on EU subsidy.

Ireland the country who suffer the most have the power to veto the final EU agreement. The question whether they could survive given that 85% of their export/import will depend on UK Ports. If it is about survival, everyone will do everything they could to survive including to veto EU final agreement. This is the last thing that the EU want as this will disrupt EU and leave EU with no confidence.

RealElement47

There isn’t enough time left to Oct to prevent the kind of disruption that the uk has never seen

gfplux

My money is on the two way bet.

1) A few tweaks of the existing withdrawal/transition/political understanding DEAL and it gets approval from Parliament.

2) No agreement but a further extension of six months.

Curious that Britain wants to leave but if the EU just lets the deadline HAPPEN and on November 1st Britain is out the EU will be accused of throwing Britain out of the EU. We do live in strange times.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Curious that Britain wants to leave but if the EU just lets the deadline HAPPEN and on November 1st Britain is out the EU will be accused of throwing Britain out of the EU. We do live in strange times.

Who is potentially making that accusation?

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

Who is potentially making that accusation?

I'm willing to bet the usual Leavers will be the ones claiming that the EU kicked us out. Particularly those claiming that a hard border will be because the EU wants it.

Herzlos

adindas wrote: »

It is only a blind cannot see that, the EU keep making the Irish border as an issue because they want to keep UK as a cash cow and subservient of the EU under ECJ.

Or there are details you are missing / choosing to ignore. How do we handle diverging standards with no border?

Just one example the Irish official document is now proposing the check to be done not at the border. Why all of the sudden they propose the things that they vehemently rejected it in the past???

But the problem still exists, we're just moving it away from the border line - we're still going to have the same checks, disruption and smuggling, but it's going to be happening all over the place.
The problem is that with different tax/standards on either side of the imaginary line, we need to be careful what crosses it - the GFA concern is regarding equal treatment of people from either side and not a line in the road.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

@Fran Klee a few posts ago:
"Would there be any point my explaining that currently container-loads of goods for my company arrive regularly here in the UK, having been sealed in the USA on dispatch?"
It seems there wasn't.

I think they'll definitely introduce that approach - containers going through the UK between Eire and EU until they can upgrade the shipping capacity will end up getting sealed/tagged to avoid having to be exported/imported. That's a long solved problem.


They can also do the same to handle import/export between Eire/UK and EU/UK at warehouses rather than a border checkpoint, I'm pretty sure they do that at the Swiss border. However, you'd still need spot checks (like the Swiss border) and it only works for those that pre-declare.



You still have the big issue of grey imports - nothing with that system stops me loading up a small van / car / trailer with goods that are either cheaper on one side or illegal on one side and driving across. Or worse - migrants; I could collect a people carrier/minibus full of illegals in Dublin and then drive them right over the border into the UK.

The EU won't allow the integrity of the single market to be damaged by letting us bypass their rules, and Brexit was meant to be about controlling our borders.