Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

No-one wrote "not as bad as some of the predictions" on the bus though. For Brexit to be enough of a success to keep the pitchforks away, we need brexit to visibly improve things.

You need to get over your obsession with the bus.

That's in your eyes and mine but brexit voters might well be happy with status quo or even worse.

phillw

ukcarper wrote: »

That's in your eyes and mine but brexit voters might well be happy with status quo or even worse.

This is the argument I find most disingenuous. We're constantly told that vast swathes voted to leave because they thought they had nothing to lose, they aren't going to be happy with it being worse let alone the same. Especially once the real reason they were talking into voting to leave comes into effect.

If brexit is delivered then expect some real angry leave voters on the streets

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

I can clearly understand the EUs position they have the impression that there is a possibility that we will reverse the decision failing that Parliament will prevent us leaving without a deal therefore they do not need to make concessions they feel uncomfortable with.

The EU has thick red lines .

Herzlos

Thick, logical, well documented and absolutely rigid red lines. We knew that when we ran the referendum as we had a say in them and have watched the EU negotiate trade deals on our behalf. It doesn't do anything on a whim or out of spite.

ukcarper wrote: »

You need to get over your obsession with the bus.

That's in your eyes and mine but brexit voters might well be happy with status quo or even worse.

The bus is just an example of the campaign. No-one campaigned on the grounds brexit would make us worse off. All the campaigners told us it'd be just like staying in but with more money, more sovereignty and less foreigners. I.e. the cake and eat it brexit. I'd have voted for that if I thought it was true.

I'm not sure how many brexiteers are happy to become worse off. Plenty that are happy for others to be worse off though.

Shakethedisease

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think you are aware of the strength of feeling in the country amongst leave voters.

Evidentally. If this story is to be given credence.

Brexiters lobby for European veto of article 50 extension
Veto by a country such as Italy or Poland could lead to a no-deal Brexit this month


Speaking in the European parliament, the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage told MEPs: “The solution to avoid hordes of new Brexit party MEPs being elected is for the European council to veto any extension of article 50 and ensure we leave on 29 March.”

It is claimed Leave.EU’s Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore visited Veneto last week to discuss with senior figures in Salvini’s party, the League, what attitude the Italian government might take towards article 50....

Three Conservative MPs flew to Warsaw last Thursday to meet members of the Polish governing party to discuss the Brexit crisis...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexiters-lobby-for-european-veto-of-article-50-extension?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Herzlos

BikingBud wrote: »

So still the majority then?

A tiny, statistically insignificant majority. It more accurately reflects the closeness of the result (which is why the 17m people gets thrown about, it's intended to be misleading).

Whilst just over half will be betrayed by a no brexit, just under half will be betrayed by brexit.

Any will of the people argument falls flat when it turns out to be the will of half of the people.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

Whilst just over half will be betrayed by a no brexit, just under half will be betrayed by brexit.

As it's impossible to deliver every type of brexit that the leave voters wanted, it's actually way more than half that will be betrayed by brexit.

We can't be seen to pander to these people.

lisyloo

ukcarper wrote: »

But you are assuming the country will collapse, we don't know what the effect will. I don't think it will be good and initially there will be major problems but in the end I suspect although we will be worse off it will not be as bad as some of the predictions.

Didn’t mark Carey put some figures on this recently that showed that indeed the impact post no deal preparations was not as bad as the previous figures for a disorderly exit worse case scenario.
They weren’t terrible figures from what I recall.

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

Didn’t mark Carey put some figures on this recently that showed that indeed the impact post no deal preparations was not as bad as the previous figures for a disorderly exit worse case scenario.
They weren’t terrible figures from what I recall.

I think the problem is nobody can say with 100% certainty what will happen, I must admit it's not looking good to me and am amazed that MPs have let it get this bad. Listening to news it appears there is very little appetite in EU for extending article 50 so no matter what happens tonight and tomorrow I fear we will leave without a deal.

lisyloo

ukcarper wrote: »

I think the problem is nobody can say with 100% certainty what will happen, I must admit it's not looking good to me and am amazed that MPs have let it get this bad. Listening to news it appears there is very little appetite in EU for extending article 50 so no matter what happens tonight and tomorrow I fear we will leave without a deal.

Why don’t you think it will be revoked?
I think artcicle 50 would be revoked in preference to no-deal and EU would cooperate with any delays incurred.