Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

Why don’t you think it will be revoked?
I think artcicle 50 would be revoked in preference to no-deal and EU would cooperate with any delays incurred.

It could be revoked but I think that will be a very unpopular decision and I'm not sure the 70% or so of MPs in leave voting constituencies will be willing to vote for it. As I understand it we don't need EUs cooperation to withdraw article 50, but although things initially will be as they were I don't think they will remain that way.

phillw

I wasn't expecting a majority on no deal ever, but a majority is a majority.

I wonder what will happen next, maybe may withdraws the amended bill??

BikingBud

Herzlos wrote: »

A tiny, statistically insignificant majority. It more accurately reflects the closeness of the result (which is why the 17m people gets thrown about, it's intended to be misleading).

Whilst just over half will be betrayed by a no brexit, just under half will be betrayed by brexit.

Any will of the people argument falls flat when it turns out to be the will of half of the people.

So it's still still a majority!

And in a democratic society that didn't stipulate greater than 60% or 70% the simple majority wins.

Herzlos

Narrow agreement to prevent a no deal brexit. I make it 50.03% in favour so a clear will of Parliament.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

It could be revoked but I think that will be a very unpopular decision and I'm not sure the 70% or so of MPs in leave voting constituencies will be willing to vote for it. As I understand it we don't need EUs cooperation to withdraw article 50, but although things initially will be as they were I don't think they will remain that way.

Is that 70% based on the 2016 referendum or based on current polling?

Do you think a no deal brexit would be a popular decision?

MPs are screwed either way here. Unless Brexit turns into a rampaging success.

Arklight

Brexiters crushed.

There will be no Brexit.

Arklight

Take cover!

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Is that 70% based on the 2016 referendum or based on current polling?

Do you think a no deal brexit would be a popular decision?

MPs are screwed either way here. Unless Brexit turns into a rampaging success.

You can only base it on Referendum although as I understand the figures are not entirely accurate and its probably somewhere between 60% and 70% but MPs are reluctant to risk thier seats.

No I don't think a no deal brexit will be popular just as I don't think revoking article 50 will be personally can't see any easy way out of current situation.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

It could be revoked but I think that will be a very unpopular decision and I'm not sure the 70% or so of MPs in leave voting constituencies will be willing to vote for it. As I understand it we don't need EUs cooperation to withdraw article 50, but although things initially will be as they were I don't think they will remain that way.

ukcarper wrote: »

You can only base it on Referendum although as I understand the figures are not entirely accurate and its probably somewhere between 60% and 70% but MPs are reluctant to risk thier seats.

No I don't think a no deal brexit will be popular just as I don't think revoking article 50 will be personally can't see any easy way out of current situation.

So why are you pushing brexit as the only way to prevent upsetting the people?

A 2nd referendum would solve this; it's give MPs a mandate to actually do something.

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

No I don't think a no deal brexit will be popular just as I don't think revoking article 50 will be personally can't see any easy way out of current situation.

We'll topple over the cliff. The impression I got from some people who work in Brussels (in a capacity for the UK) and deal with counterparts in the EC on a daily basis. Is that they are fed up with the situation. They've better things to do with their time. As a consequence it'll be the EU that will put a time limit on proceedings. Forcing the UK to arrive at a decision. Nor do they expect further extended negotiations. The final offer is on the table.