Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Herzlos

I'm not sure the border issue can be resolved without binning at least one red line.

phillw

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't believe that the EUs aim is to hold us in the back and that a solution would be found eventually.

No, I don't believe it either. I believe the ERG want to be able to prevent us getting a deal then say that because we can't negotiate a deal then we need to abandon the backstop.

That is the only explanation for the ERG's behaviour

BTW I was speaking to a friend of mine that I don't see often. He told me that he voted to leave but he's changed his mind now that everything has become more expensive.

Herzlos

EU has given up trying to solve UKs problems. Sounds like a no deal if we can't sort anything out by April.
I think they just want this over with now and don't care what the deal is as long as the uncertainty stops, because we've just alienated our biggest trading partner. Good job.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-eu-response-vote-result-irish-backstop-talks-uk-theresa-may-no-deal-a8820071.html

cogito

phillw wrote: »

No, I don't believe it either. I believe the ERG want to be able to prevent us getting a deal then say that because we can't negotiate a deal then we need to abandon the backstop.

That is the only explanation for the ERG's behaviour

BTW I was speaking to a friend of mine that I don't see often. He told me that he voted to leave but he's changed his mind now that everything has become more expensive.

The only explanation for the ERG'S behaviour is that they want to see the manifesto commitments honoured. Nothing more, nothing less. The WA does not deliver that.

gfplux

The only thing that is certain is the uncertainty continues.

Uncertainty is the enemy of prosperity.

gfplux

Hot off the press from Politico.eu this mornings email
QUOTE
BREAKING THIS MORNING: Apologies for the late arrival of this morning’s Playbook, but in the past few minutes the government has published two critically important documents on its no-deal planning, and we thought we’d hang on until they were out. One sets out the U.K. government’s plans for the Northern Irish border in the event of a no-deal scenario; the other on its proposed trade tariffs. They were published at 7 a.m. due to market sensitivities — both will be hugely controversial given the day we have in store.

On the Irish border: Britain would unilaterally waive checks on all goods crossing the Northern Ireland border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, as part of a temporary regime in the days immediately after the U.K.’s exit. The temporary regime would permit the unmonitored flow of goods — and exploitation of the new system by smugglers, officials acknowledged. In such a scenario, the U.K. would seek to immediately enter talks with the EU and the Irish government to find a long-term solution, according to a government briefing this morning. Full details from the Cabinet Office here.

On tariffs: The U.K. would temporarily remove all tariffs on 87 percent of imported goods in the event of a no-deal Brexit, in order to avoid “potential price spikes” hitting consumers. This emergency tariff regime would apply for up to 12 months, officials say. A mixture of tariff rates would be retained for some goods, however, including on agricultural imports and cars. The Mirror’s Ben Glaze calculates. This would slap £1,500 on the price of an average car from the EU.
END QUOTE

Herzlos

Hello WTO MFN terms; tariff and check free trade from everywhere for 12 months.

Which opens up a new dilemma: if we're accepting chlorine chicken from the US, the EU will need to stop and check everything., though I guess they'd need to do the same due to WTO terms anyway.

I wonder if we can get a deal in place before ships of illegal US food reach us.

Enterprise_1701C

The US can't import chlorine chicken if no-one orders it!

Yes, the Us does have different standards to us, and yes things do have to be ordered before they can be imported.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

No, I don't believe it either. I believe the ERG want to be able to prevent us getting a deal then say that because we can't negotiate a deal then we need to abandon the backstop.

That is the only explanation for the ERG's behaviour

BTW I was speaking to a friend of mine that I don't see often. He told me that he voted to leave but he's changed his mind now that everything has become more expensive.

I'm not sure about that I thinks it's down to if you believe the EU when it says it doesn't want the back stop to last forever, because if you don't we are effectively locked in. I personally do believe that but ERG don't. I think whether we leave with no deal is now in EUs hands because I think parliament won't vote for no deal and will ask for extension.

BobQ

ukcarper wrote: »

You are going over the same arguments and yes they are valid but we are past that point and I don't think we can ignore the referendum.

Its not a question of ignoring the referendum. Parliament has more understanding of the reality than many of those who expressed a view in a simplistic yes/no vote.