Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

It's not an accident ! I don't understand why people say this.

MPs/political figures should really understand the consequences of their actions.

You don't trigger a binary referendum without the understanding that EITHER option may prevail. It's just diligent thinking.

You don't trigger the A50 process in parliament without at least understanding what the fixed time window will mean. That will include the scenario where there is no local agreement / deadlock.

Agree, leaving without a deal is the default now. There is an assumption that something will be sorted out because a no-deal is so damaging, but it wouldn't surprise me if the EU refuse our request for a delay. They want this finished and don't want to play the games that our government are trying.

Shakethedisease

FT reporting DUP will not back deal

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

Agree, leaving without a deal is the default now. There is an assumption that something will be sorted out because a no-deal is so damaging, but it wouldn't surprise me if the EU refuse our request for a delay. They want this finished and don't want to play the games that our government are trying.

Our feeble government has played this all wrong. You need to understand your opponent; as they understand you. There are weak points on both sides.

I would not have guaranteed the right to remain of ANY of the EU citizens working here. They disproportionately come from certain EU states, and it would be possible to split the EU alliance and expose the Vested Interests of individual states.

ROI is also an exposed weak point, and we should make immediate plans to impose large transport tariffs on any road freight bound for ROI using UK roads.

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

...
So basically, we are converting large parts of our motorway network into a parking lot in order to implement a brexit policy that will makes us significantly poorer. Utter, utter madness.

M20/M25 does not qualify as "large parts of our motorway network".

Takedap

phillw wrote: »

The MPs are damned if they do and damned if they don't. If we leave and the country goes belly up then there will still be rabble rousers, probably the same ones who voted to leave. You can't appease these type of people, so you should do what is in the countries best interest above all else. Don't forget that people voted to leave based on it being easy to do a trade deal, £350 million a week extra with absolutely no downsides. Crashing out doesn't deliver the will of the people in any shape or form.

While leaving the poor areas who voted to leave slide further into poverty would be satisfying to some, it's going to be a problem that needs solving at some point. It's much easier to do that if you haven't just slit your own throat.

Problem is that people are most probably still going to be worse off even if it's a soft Brexit.


Many will believe that everything would have been much better if we had just listened to them & let them have their way. They won't think that we've stopped them slitting their throats. They'll believe that we're traitors, quitters & enemies.



No deal is the only way of proving to them that they were wrong (not that they would ever openly admit it). And in the unlikely event that everything ends up rosy, despite making me & people like me look silly, well, that would be good for all.


Don't forget how easy it is to whip up a noisy crowd. Do we really want our own version of Trump?


The economic fall out would be easier to handle than the perceived destruction of democracy.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

Our feeble government has played this all wrong. You need to understand your opponent; as they understand you. There are weak points on both sides.
.

Personally I wouldn't have treated the EU as an "opponent"

That was a mistake from the start.

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

True, it just happens to be the part that carries the majority of goods to and from our most important market.

Well, I have an interest in developing Liverpool container port facilities...so why wouldn't I want more sea freight going there?

lisyloo

ukcarper wrote: »

Then why don't Labour be honest like SNP and LibDens and state clearly that they don't want to leave and like those they should have voted against triggering article 50.

I can’t speak for them but maybe they haven’t stated it because it’s not the case?

I’m not a labour supporter but the blame for promising something that increasingly appears undeliverable cannot be put at their door.

phillw

ukcarper wrote: »

Well from I'm sitting that's exactly what they are trying to do Labour are pushing to stay in both single market and customs union which is BINO

That is different from trying to change the result of the referendum, which is what was accused. BINO delivers the referendum result, if that is all that can be delivered then blame the leave campaign that promised unicorns to all.

ukcarper wrote: »

If leave win that referendum, which is a much stronger possibility than many remain supporters think, we will be right back where we are now.

No we won't, they'll have a mandate for crashing out. At the moment they don't.

Conservative support collapsed when Labour offered the customs union in their GE manifesto.

I already hear leavers complaining that crashing out wasn't what they voted for, it's only going to get worse. Not all leavers are so entrenched in their viewpoint that they're willing to ignore the consequences of it.

kabayiri wrote: »

Well, I have an interest in developing Liverpool container port facilities...so why wouldn't I want more sea freight going there?

What problem do you think it solves?

phillw

mayonnaise wrote: »

We'll probably end up with a parliament even more hung than the current one.

It depends on who runs the campaign and how honest they are.

I'd like to see Reese Mogg lead the conservatives into the next election.

If the conservatives still scrape through then I'll just sit back and wait for the truth to dawn on people.