Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

lisyloo

lisyloo wrote: »

so prediction on what will happen please

I think parliament will vote down the deal.
I think they will also vote down no deal.
There doesn't seem to be any point in a delay if there is no sign of the deadlock over the backstop being resolved.

So how do we do get out of this deadlock? assuming everyone wants to avoid just crashing out.

I’m going to predict

Mays deal voted down
No deal voted down
Extension voted for - not sure the other 27 will agree though

andrewf75

lisyloo wrote: »

I’m going to predict

Mays deal voted down
No deal voted down
Extension voted for - not sure the other 27 will agree though

The first 2 are virtually certain.

I really have no idea what happens then...weirdly I kind of favour a no-deal. If we don't ever face the consequences, a significant number will still be fighting for that. Soft brexit/2nd vote and we could very easily have Farage in number 10 in a few years time.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

I think everyones against Mays deal because it's the worse of both worlds - it's like all the bad parts of remaining, with none of the good parts of leaving.

What exactly are the good parts of leaving?

Sure we'll be able to do our own trade deals, but they'll be worse than the ones that the EU would do on our behalf & we'll have to sabotage our deal with the EU to be able to do them in the first place.

The backstop will look like a real nice place to be soon.

Takedap wrote: »

The phrase "They asked for it" is by far the most important part of your post.
I'm not sure that you are factoring in the historical significance of this.
We have already heard the cries of "Traitor" & "Enemies of the people"
Do you know just how much ammunition you are potentially handing to the rabble rousers?

The MPs are damned if they do and damned if they don't. If we leave and the country goes belly up then there will still be rabble rousers, probably the same ones who voted to leave. You can't appease these type of people, so you should do what is in the countries best interest above all else. Don't forget that people voted to leave based on it being easy to do a trade deal, £350 million a week extra with absolutely no downsides. Crashing out doesn't deliver the will of the people in any shape or form.

While leaving the poor areas who voted to leave slide further into poverty would be satisfying to some, it's going to be a problem that needs solving at some point. It's much easier to do that if you haven't just slit your own throat.

ukcarper wrote: »

trying to reverse the result of referendum there would be enough votes to get deal through.

Nobody is trying to reverse the result of the second referendum, in the same way the second referendum didn't reverse the first referendum in 1975. Delivering the result of the second referendum is hard, which is why a third referendum may be required. It's just more democracy.

Another referendum is in the interest of those who voted to leave if we can't come up with a way out of this mess, but they are so intent on walking over a cliff they may not get the chance.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

Nobody is trying to reverse the result of the second referendum, in the same way the second referendum didn't reverse the first referendum in 1975. Delivering the result of the second referendum is hard, which is why a third referendum may be required. It's just more democracy.

Another referendum is in the interest of those who voted to leave if we can't come up with a way out of this mess, but they are so intent on walking over a cliff they may not get the chance.

Well from I'm sitting that's exactly what they are trying to do Labour are pushing to stay in both single market and customs union which is BINO and I know that will not satisfy the people I know who voted leave or along with others pushing for another referendum which they would not be if they thought leave would win. If leave win that referendum, which is a much stronger possibility than many remain supporters think, we will be right back where we are now.

Herzlos

And you've just highlighted the problem with all flavours of brexit. You can argue for any beyond the cake and it it version, that it's not what people voted for. Therebisnt a solution that'll make half of everyone happy.

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree if we are going to get through this we have to compromise, as a remain voters I can see the problems committed brexiters have with the backstop but if remain supporters stop playing politics or trying to reverse the result of referendum there would be enough votes to get deal through.

You know that the more you tell us you were a remain voter the less we believe you, right?

andrewf75

ukcarper wrote: »

If leave win that referendum, which is a much stronger possibility than many remain supporters think, we will be right back where we are now.

Any 2nd (3rd) referendum would surely have to avoid precisely that situation by defining Brexit as being on a no-deal basis

lisyloo

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree if we are going to get through this we have to compromise, as a remain voters I can see the problems committed brexiters have with the backstop but if remain supporters stop playing politics or trying to reverse the result of referendum there would be enough votes to get deal through.

I don’t agree with your playing politics comment.
I think many MPs think this is the worst of all worlds and those who are against have strong convictions and aren’t playing.
It’s a bit disrespectful to TBH to say they don’t take their jobs seriously, they just have different convictions.

I voted remain but I think there’s huge damage done by both the uncertainty and the distraction. I’d rather have no deal rather than a bad deal.

I remember when my dad got diagnosed cancer. People can deal with bad news and start right away making preparations but uncertainty is very hard to deal with.

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

I don’t agree with your playing politics comment.
I think many MPs think this is the worst of all worlds and those who are against have strong convictions and aren’t playing.
It’s a bit disrespectful to TBH to say they don’t take their jobs seriously, they just have different convictions.

I voted remain but I think there’s huge damage done by both the uncertainty and the distraction. I’d rather have no deal rather than a bad deal.

I remember when my dad got diagnosed cancer. People can deal with bad news and start right away making preparations but uncertainty is very hard to deal with.

Then why don't Labour be honest like SNP and LibDens and state clearly that they don't want to leave and like those they should have voted against triggering article 50.

Herzlos

Exactly, it's the uncertainty that's hurting everyone. I don't care if I need a VISA to go to Europe, because I can pass on the cost. I just need to know what's happening so I can get on with it.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

11th hour negotiations also work when one side has huge leverage over the other. Normally you'd assume that if nothing is agreed, by the end of the last day the UK will concede every remaining point and moan about being screwed over, but since the UK still doesn't seem to know what it actually wants, and doesn't seem to be able to get anything approved in parliament (because it's entirely contradictory), I'm not sure it's even going to be able to do that.


So we're still back at having no idea if we'll cancel Brexit entirely or just crash out by accident. I'm tempted to put a bet on over it but I've no idea what way it's actually going to go.

It's not an accident ! I don't understand why people say this.

MPs/political figures should really understand the consequences of their actions.

You don't trigger a binary referendum without the understanding that EITHER option may prevail. It's just diligent thinking.

You don't trigger the A50 process in parliament without at least understanding what the fixed time window will mean. That will include the scenario where there is no local agreement / deadlock.