Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

Any border poll in the aftermath of a hard Brexit would probably be a close run thing, I think you would be looking at a narrow win for remaining in the union but wouldn't bet a fortune on it.

Your statement shows a lack of understanding of the divisions that exist in NI. A return to the 70's is the last thing that anybody wishes to see.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Your statement shows a lack of understanding of the divisions that exist in NI.

I don't see it. Can you explain?

A return to the 70's is the last thing that anybody wishes to see.

Which is why our current Brexit approach is a disaster, and the backstop is needed.

phillw

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

I see the leavers are continuing with their own version of project fear - this time it’s Esther McVey who has been caught out telling lies:

What do you mean by their own version? While they managed to persuade a good number of people the opposite, it was always the leavers who were pushing project fear.

Remain put forward well reasoned argument that showed leaving in a negative light, because that is the truth.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

A return to the 70's is the last thing that anybody wishes to see.

I don't think you have asked enough people, I've heard leavers want things to return to the 70's and the 50's. Although I suspect they are looking through rose tinted glasses.

kabayiri wrote: »

Shortly after the Brexit vote, Portillo said as much on the This Week program. Both the UK and the EU are used to 11th hour politics.

The problem with 11th hour politics is that it only works if you have two groups of people with similarish views that are only arguing over one small thing. The UK parliament is divided and rejected the deal for different reasons, so trying to solve it at the last minute is going to be interesting.

I am looking forward to the MPs vote, in theory the legal assurances should be enough for anyone acting in good faith. I wonder how many of our MPs actually are, I suspect the ERG won't like it as it removes their ability to sabotage the future talks and then walk away scot free.

Herzlos

11th hour negotiations also work when one side has huge leverage over the other. Normally you'd assume that if nothing is agreed, by the end of the last day the UK will concede every remaining point and moan about being screwed over, but since the UK still doesn't seem to know what it actually wants, and doesn't seem to be able to get anything approved in parliament (because it's entirely contradictory), I'm not sure it's even going to be able to do that.


So we're still back at having no idea if we'll cancel Brexit entirely or just crash out by accident. I'm tempted to put a bet on over it but I've no idea what way it's actually going to go.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

So we're still back at having no idea if we'll cancel Brexit entirely or just crash out by accident. I'm tempted to put a bet on over it but I've no idea what way it's actually going to go.

You're thinking two dimensionally, if you're going to bet on brexit then it should be for cancelling it. You should get better odds and if brexit is cancelled then sterling will recover.

Crashing out with no deal isn't going to be a huge payout, because it looks pretty likely and sterling will be worthless anyway. You need to find a better way to cover the crashing out position.

Herzlos wrote: »

but since the UK still doesn't seem to know what it actually wants, and doesn't seem to be able to get anything approved in parliament (because it's entirely contradictory), I'm not sure it's even going to be able to do that.

Well at the moment it's just about getting across the line, the real divide is going to open during the next stage of negotiations. It's quite amazing how both leave and remain MPs are united against the backstop, when remain MPs would at least get something closer to what they want by getting stuck in the backstop.

Herzlos

Fair point, I'm not factoring in the sterling value from both, though I am sitting on a large pile of overseas money I'm expecting to bring back as soon as it goes wrong.


I think everyones against Mays deal because it's the worse of both worlds - it's like all the bad parts of remaining, with none of the good parts of leaving. It moves us further away from Remain (because we're not really) yet doesn't satisfy Leave (because we're not really). I think the backstop is just the current thing people are latching onto the sink the thing, rather than any real concern, because it's pretty obvious what the backstop is and why it's there to anyone who actually cares about the detail. The ERG don't care about the detail, they just want to leave.
What baffles me is that the backstop was our idea, in order to kick the NI border issue down the road. It should have been shot down over a year ago.

enthusiasticsaver

I am not sure how the MPs will vote today but I am guessing they will vote against it as they did in January by a huge margin. I guess in a way it reflects the turmoil in the country with there being a massive split 50/50 thereabouts with remainers and leavers on two opposite sides of the fence and the deal means no one wins.

If the deal is not accepted and I am going to say no it won't be then what is the alternative? Delay Brexit? Crash out without a deal, although May says there will be a vote on that before that goes ahead or a second referendum and hope some people have changed their minds? This is a total mess and should have been foreseen before Cameron gave the referendum in the first place and the government has done nothing over the last three years except deal with this and the cost is extortionate. It makes me laugh to see May trotting out the old stuff like no more fees to the EU in her speech this morning. The cost of all this has far outweighed the membership costs to us of belonging to the EU. Just nodding to the eurosceptics in the country and her party.


I agree with Herzlos though and this deal is the worst of both worlds. What is the alternative though?

Takedap

phillw wrote: »

Parliament has the responsibility to try to run the country and that would sound more like them giving up and going "f**k em, they asked for it".

Personally I think we need someone in charge with the courage to stand up for what they believe and tell the ERG to do one.

The phrase "They asked for it" is by far the most important part of your post.
I'm not sure that you are factoring in the historical significance of this.
We have already heard the cries of "Traitor" & "Enemies of the people"
Do you know just how much ammunition you are potentially handing to the rabble rousers?

andrewf75

phillw wrote: »

It's quite amazing how both leave and remain MPs are united against the backstop, when remain MPs would at least get something closer to what they want by getting stuck in the backstop.

surely leavers would as they will be at least be getting Brexit - and sorting out the Irish border is easy according to them

I think a lot of it is playing politics to be honest

Labour should really be backing the deal along with the majority of the Tories. Its not perfect obviously, but perfect doesn't exist unless you're at the extremes of wanting to cancel Brexit or have no deal.

ukcarper

andrewf75 wrote: »

surely leavers would as they will be at least be getting Brexit - and sorting out the Irish border is easy according to them

I think a lot of it is playing politics to be honest

Labour should really be backing the deal along with the majority of the Tories. Its not perfect obviously, but perfect doesn't exist unless you're at the extremes of wanting to cancel Brexit or have no deal.

I agree if we are going to get through this we have to compromise, as a remain voters I can see the problems committed brexiters have with the backstop but if remain supporters stop playing politics or trying to reverse the result of referendum there would be enough votes to get deal through.