Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

...
Equally while there is a majority opposed to "No Deal", that isn't enough to stop "No Deal", we still crash out without a deal if we can't agree anything else.

Err, that *is* part of the design of the A50 process !

It had a 2 year window for deal negotiation. It could have had a 20 year window, or 200 years. But somehow, those in the know felt that 2 years was fine.

If you don't like the idea of 2 years, you don't trigger a mechanism which has a 2 year window do you!

'Crashing out', as you refer to it, will be solely down to those who triggered a time limited process.

letitbe90

Guys relax, Brexit will be reversed. Nothing to see here.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

Err, that *is* part of the design of the A50 process !

It had a 2 year window for deal negotiation. It could have had a 20 year window, or 200 years. But somehow, those in the know felt that 2 years was fine.

If you don't like the idea of 2 years, you don't trigger a mechanism which has a 2 year window do you!

'Crashing out', as you refer to it, will be solely down to those who triggered a time limited process.

If it wasn't a time limited process we would likely never leave, so Leavers shopuld be grateful it is, otherwise we would likely be remaining indefniitely never able to agree a deal!

Even with an upcoming deadline applying pressure we still don't seem to close to actually coming with any kind of deal for the WA that can get through Parliament.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

Err, that *is* part of the design of the A50 process !

It had a 2 year window for deal negotiation. It could have had a 20 year window, or 200 years. But somehow, those in the know felt that 2 years was fine.

If you don't like the idea of 2 years, you don't trigger a mechanism which has a 2 year window do you!

'Crashing out', as you refer to it, will be solely down to those who triggered a time limited process.

I'm not sure the 2 years is the issue...had it been a week or 200 years the same basic problems remain. We want something that isn't possible. Either we reach a compromise deal where we get some benefits of membership in exchange for some contributions, or we cut all ties and deal with the consequences, not pretend they don't exit.

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

We want something that isn't possible.

NI doesn't want to split away from the UK for very obvious reasons.

If there's no agreement and Brexit occurs. Then the EU hasn't resolved any of it's own issues either.

Is the danger then that Eire becomes detached from mainland Europe as well.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

NI doesn't want to split away from the UK for very obvious reasons.

If there's no agreement and Brexit occurs. Then the EU hasn't resolved any of it's own issues either.

Is the danger then that Eire becomes detached from mainland Europe as well.

Any border poll in the aftermath of a hard Brexit would probably be a close run thing, I think you would be looking at a narrow win for remaining in the union but wouldn't bet a fortune on it.

Pre-Brexit a lot of middle class members of the catholic community in NI were pretty much fine with the status quo so there was a comfortable pro-union majority, opinions appear to have moved a reasonable amount though, the lack of power sharing at present isn't helping either.

Takedap

lisyloo wrote: »

so prediction on what will happen please

I think parliament will vote down the deal.
I think they will also vote down no deal.
There doesn't seem to be any point in a delay if there is no sign of the deadlock over the backstop being resolved.

So how do we do get out of this deadlock? assuming everyone wants to avoid just crashing out.

Short of having access to a Tardis so that we could go back & punch the stupid idea out of David Cameron, I don't think there is a way out.
It's too late. We've already split the country worse than the Miner's strike ever did. We've set brother against brother again.
The only "solution" if you can call it that, is to exit on no-deal & let the chips fall wherever they may.
If it's a success, the Leavers were right.
If it's not, the Leavers can look for something else to blame.
Either way, it'll stop the "it would have been better if you'd listened to us" stuff that we will inevitably get from the "Winners" if we have a soft Brexit (or none at all)

phillw

Takedap wrote: »

If it's a success, the Leavers were right.
If it's not, the Leavers can look for something else to blame.
Either way, it'll stop the "it would have been better if you'd listened to us" stuff that we will inevitably get from the "Winners" if we have a soft Brexit (or none at all)

Parliament has the responsibility to try to run the country and that would sound more like them giving up and going "f**k em, they asked for it".

Personally I think we need someone in charge with the courage to stand up for what they believe and tell the ERG to do one.

kabayiri wrote: »

If you don't like the idea of 2 years, you don't trigger a mechanism which has a 2 year window do you!

Theresa May is expecting to be able to make a deal in the last five minutes, so it doesn't matter how long it would have been.

kabayiri wrote: »

'Crashing out', as you refer to it, will be solely down to those who triggered a time limited process.

Crashing out was a foregone conclusion, because of the 48/52 split. The referendum was badly designed and that kind of split should have required further debate before changing anything.

I am impressed that Theresa May managed to concoct a deal that was so unpopular and because she'd created an anchor, the EU aren't likely to move on it.

Filo25 wrote: »

If it wasn't a time limited process we would likely never leave, so Leavers shopuld be grateful it is, otherwise we would likely be remaining indefniitely never able to agree a deal!

Having a do or die end date introduces the chance we won't leave, because leaving with no deal could be rejected & it's unclear what deal they could pass. Not having an end date means that you're not waiting for five minutes before the end to make your deal. If they'd just started negotiating then both sides wouldn't have been so entrenched.

kabayiri

phillw wrote: »

...
Theresa May is expecting to be able to make a deal in the last five minutes, so it doesn't matter how long it would have been.
...

Shortly after the Brexit vote, Portillo said as much on the This Week program. Both the UK and the EU are used to 11th hour politics.

Zero_Gravitas

I see the leavers are continuing with their own version of project fear - this time it’s Esther McVey who has been caught out telling lies:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47523168