Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

How anyone can see it as the EU shooting themselves in the foot is just incredible.

Relationships are going to get soured.

lisyloo

so prediction on what will happen please

I think parliament will vote down the deal.
I think they will also vote down no deal.
There doesn't seem to be any point in a delay if there is no sign of the deadlock over the backstop being resolved.

So how do we do get out of this deadlock? assuming everyone wants to avoid just crashing out.

kabayiri

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree I can't see UKIP getting many MPs, it's difficult to tell what the overall effect is but suspect Labour would lose the most.

The more intelligent goal of any radical is to rip the mainstream parties apart.

It's hard to do, but not impossible. Corbyn is hardly able to control his front bench, never mind his MPs.

ERG are effectively a party within a party. So are Momentum.

All that is needed is to find something which will split out the factions.

May is a corpse in power. Somebody will smell blood..it's just a matter of time.

kabayiri

lisyloo wrote: »

...
So how do we do get out of this deadlock? assuming everyone wants to avoid just crashing out.

The only real way out of the EU is to convince the other states that we are not worth retaining, in any fashion.

Voting back in some really anti-EU; disruptive; MEPs in the upcoming elections (should we still be in); will only add to the feelings of animosity.

I reckon the EU parliamentary balance will swing to the right anyway. The tensions are all there.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

The only real way out of the EU is to convince the other states that we are not worth retaining, in any fashion.
.

I imagine we may have already achieved that! Will all 27 members allow us to extend this farce any longer?

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

I imagine we may have already achieved that! Will all 27 members allow us to extend this farce any longer?

They probably won't have any choice.

If the UK lacks readiness, it will inevitably knock onto other EU member states.

Those pesky 'supply lines' eh.

An extension will mean further contribution; and the interesting question of can we stand candidates for the EU elections upcoming.

I now believe that T May studied Chaos Theory at Uni !

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

They probably won't have any choice.

If the UK lacks readiness, it will inevitably knock onto other EU member states.

Those pesky 'supply lines' eh.

An extension will mean further contribution; and the interesting question of can we stand candidates for the EU elections upcoming.

I now believe that T May studied Chaos Theory at Uni !

But surely there comes a point at which the EU will just take the supply line disruption - which lets face it is coming anyway. I think they want it finished asap and I predict that they may surprise the UK on that front. For the UK, continually delaying makes sense as a tactic, but for the EU it doesn't. They want to move on.

They won't want us part of the next budget and parliament.

Filo25

andrewf75 wrote: »

But surely there comes a point at which the EU will just take the supply line disruption - which lets face it is coming anyway. I think they want it finished asap and I predict that they may surprise the UK on that front. For the UK, continually delaying makes sense as a tactic, but for the EU it doesn't. They want to move on.

They won't want us part of the next budget and parliament.

For the EU I think the key will be what does the UK want an extension for, if it is the same old nonsense, and we are just back in the same position at the end of the extension what is the point.

If the UK indicates it is willing to change its approach to try to break the deadlock (changing redlines, calling a GE, or having some kind of referendum to approve some kind of outcome) then it is more likely to be received favourably

Filo25

lisyloo wrote: »

so prediction on what will happen please

I think parliament will vote down the deal.
I think they will also vote down no deal.
There doesn't seem to be any point in a delay if there is no sign of the deadlock over the backstop being resolved.

So how do we do get out of this deadlock? assuming everyone wants to avoid just crashing out.

I think we are still in the awkward position where there is a majority in Parliament opposed to many things, but probably not many things that there is a majority in favour of.

There is probably a majority for an extension to Article 50, but that isn't a solution in itself, just a way of buying time to agree a solution.

Equally while there is a majority opposed to "No Deal", that isn't enough to stop "No Deal", we still crash out without a deal if we can't agree anything else.

LHW99

I now believe that T May studied Chaos [STRIKE]Theory[/STRIKE] Practical at Uni !

Sorted...................!