Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
Like I keep banging on; Brexit is trivial to solve once you decide which group of people you want to upset.

I agree. You're always going to upset someone. It is beyond doubt.

I don't adhere to the idea the <2m people in NI control the terms of the WA with the EU. It's not like NI has a functioning government...they can't even agree that.

The Irish border issue is a power play. A workable soft border is entirely possible, but it doesn't suit the politicians.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

A negotiation framework where 27 face up against 1 is hardly ever going to work. (Maybe Germany is the only notable exception)

I think the way it should work is that the UK goes into a transition phase (however long), during which it is technically "out", but where practical arrangements on customs and people movement continue.

During this time the parties either agree on longer term relations, or re-entry on agreed terms at the end of the window.

If we were actually "out" during this transition window, it would neuter those trying to kill the process in parliament.

I don't think we should be a long term lukewarm member of the EU. The re-entry terms above would clarify where both parties actually saw the UK's role.

Isn't this precisely the deal on offer? With the exception of the 're entry bit

andrewf75

adindas wrote: »

Staying in the single market is against the referendum result.
Keep in mind during the campaign it has been spelled out that leaving EU mean
- Leaving the single market.

No, that was project fear by the remain campaign.

As for your certain prediction for the future, forgive me if I don't take them very seriously given that you also think invading Ireland is a viable plan!

adindas

andrewf75 wrote: »

Not just the other party, the entire world!

With Brexit UK is currently negotiating with EU not with the entire world. EU is using Ireland as a pawn.

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

Isn't this precisely the deal on offer? With the exception of the 're entry bit

Not really, because our starting position within the window would be that we were out.

The re-entry negotiation would clarify once and for all what the existing members price would be for re-entry.

Right now, some MPs are pretending we would just drop back into the Union without any repercussions. I see that as flawed.

Thrugelmir

adindas wrote: »

With Brexit UK is currently negotiating with EU not with the entire world. EU is using Ireland as a pawn.

Eire is driving the debate. Don't underestimate the strength of republicanism. Martin and Gerry are folklore heroes in parts.

andrewf75

adindas wrote: »

Project fear ??
Did you watch the TV what David Cameron was saying during the campaign about leaving the EU ?

Based on that people voted to leave the EU

I watched and made my mind up like everyone else but I didn't vote remain because of what leave campaigners told me it would mean!

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

I watched and made my mind up like everyone else but I didn't vote remain because of what leave campaigners told me it would mean!

Many had already come to a decision before campaigning even started. The leave campaign was specifically targeted at the floating 30%. Unlike remain they got their act together. As in any election. It's local issues that will sway people. Not international ones.

andrewf75

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Many had already come to a decision before campaigning even started. The leave campaign was specifically targeted at the floating 30%. Unlike remain they got their act together. As in any election. It's local issues that will sway people. Not international ones.

Agree, but my point is in response to adindas point that Camerons warning that brexit would mean we would leave the single market was somehow the ndisputed definition of brexit

gfplux

adindas wrote: »

From the beginning UK have a lot of bargaining power: e.g. money, People (EU citizen in the UK as bargaining chips), defence and security, intelligent.

TM has given them up all. The case of two brexit negotiators quit told a lot of stories.

If you remove the threat of a no deal brexit what you have left to negotiate ? Do the people in the UK wanted to be kept humiliated by the EU negotiators ??

No deal is better than bad deal that is what TM has preached. Because most people have seen the current deal is a bad, the UK should leave the EU without a deal. What Is difficult to understand here.

In more than a decade you will witness who will be laughing. The same thing same thing happen with the case of joining the EURO more than a decade ago. who is laughing now.

Let EU rotten with their own problem in Greece, Italy, Spain. The problem with toxic derivative with Deutsche bank.

What is wrong with the withdrawal/transition/political understanding deal.

You write as if there is a trade deal on the table.

If Britain crashes out with no deal both Britain and the EU will be dammaged. Some including you see this as a price worth paying.
However are you then expecting Britain to sit down in April to discuss a trade deal with the EU that has been financially damaged by the people who are sitting across the table.
Good luck with that.