Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

andrewf75

movilogo wrote: »

Correct. Whatever happens, several millions of people would be very upset.

So far as parliment is predominantly remainers, they are trying to please remainers.

Trying to please leaves makes sense because it was the outcome of the referendum.

We have seen in the past scaremongering did not work as there is no way to verify those predictions without actually being out first.

IMHO, it would be best to get out first then offer another referendum few years later.

Not leaving EU and somehow overturning the outcome (via 2nd ref or whatsoever) will keep the issue burning.

Do you prefer to leave EU now (whatever hodgepodge that means - whether TM's WA or no deal/WTO)

or

Leave in few years time as No Deal under a government led by Farage (or someone of his equivalent) + right wing parties?

Laugh if you want but that's going to be reality. Brexit is already an earthquake. Nobody thought it would happen. Nobody thought Labour and Conservative would lose to a new party but that is writing on the wall.

Parliament is not trying to please remainers at all. They are desperately trying to please leavers despite it going against the best interests of the country. I think you overestimate how many remainers want a 2nd vote. Most know that we have to leave. A 2nd vote will only happen if all else fails and if we then vote to stay then opinion will have changed.

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

They don't hate the UK at all, pre-Brexit relations were probably as good as they had been since independence, but equally they aren't going to be putting thermselves voluntarily in a position where they are economically at least at the mercy of the UK, too much unpleasant shared history for that to be attractive to Ireland.

The fact that Ireland is still exposed to any change in circumstances the UK makes for itself, is down to the ROI themselves. Brexit in effect finishes the job the Irish started in 1916. The Irish fought to distance themselves from the UK, yet a situation evolved (pre the EU) where Irish citizens could still enjoy the right to work and live in the UK, usually it has to be said when the Irish economy periodically tanked like in 2008.
I don't recall the Irish voicing too much concern or pressurising Brussels at all when Cameron was traipsing around Europe looking for concessions pre. the referendum in 2016.
Its as if the Irish thought the UK state, which they hold a longstanding antipathy for, would slowly be consumed into the suprantional entity the EU is destined to become. Mis-judged that one.
I'm personally comfortable for the UK to become a third country to Ireland.

Herzlos

movilogo wrote: »

Correct. Whatever happens, several millions of people would be very upset.

So far as parliment is predominantly remainers, they are trying to please remainers.

Trying to please leaves makes sense because it was the outcome of the referendum.

Not really. May is trying to please the Tory party extremists and no-one else.


But taking emotion out of it. 48% wanted to remain, so if we remain, 52% would be upset, right?
Now, given that Leave isn't unified, assuming even a 90/10 split hard/soft brexit, if we had a hard Brexit, that's 53% upset and 47% happy, or if we had a soft brexit that'd be 95% upset and 5% happy.
That's assuming all the polling is wrong and that people haven't moved towards remain at all.



So the way to have the least unhappy people is to remain.

Not leaving EU and somehow overturning the outcome (via 2nd ref or whatsoever) will keep the issue burning.

I agree, if the leavers are betrayed (hint, they will be) they won't shut up about it for at least 2 generations.

Do you prefer to leave EU now (whatever hodgepodge that means - whether TM's WA or no deal/WTO)

or

Leave in few years time as No Deal under a government led by Farage (or someone of his equivalent) + right wing parties?

Laugh if you want but that's going to be reality. Brexit is already an earthquake. Nobody thought it would happen. Nobody thought Labour and Conservative would lose to a new party but that is writing on the wall.

I honestly doubt Farages Brexit party would get the momentum to believe, though the right wing will be a pain for decades. The cleanest thing to do to end the whole populist thing is to leave on WTO terms and rejoin with our tails between our legs.

Filo25

I genuinely believe that Farage wants us to stay anyway, just gives him something to be outraged about, which is pretty much all most populists have.

I'm sure whatever happens on Brexit it will somehow be a betrayal as far as Farage is concerned

movilogo

cleanest thing to do to end the whole populist thing is to leave on WTO terms and rejoin

Finally we agreed on something. So leavers and remainers can be friends

andrewf75

Herzlos wrote: »

The cleanest thing to do to end the whole populist thing is to leave on WTO terms and rejoin with our tails between our legs.

Trouble is if you then allowed time for the UK to adjust and draw up new trade agreements etc, completely realign our economy and make a fair judgment on whether it was a success or not – by the time you’d done that rejoining would be just as hard as leaving! It would take a decade or more probably.

No, for me a soft Brexit is the least bad option. I’d argue that it upsets the least number of people given that most remainers accept that we should respect the referendum result. And solves the NI issue. Its surely the most likely option by default, at least in the short term, because the others are just so bad!

andrewf75

adindas wrote: »

Keep in mind Ireland is not a full Nato member, so US will not interfere.

Ah right, that’s OK then!

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the only way of resolving the Irish border is to either
1) Stay in the single market/customs union and avoid the need for one, or
2) Reinstate a border

Our failure to make that basic choice has led to the issues, nothing else.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

I would suggest given the often unwillingly shared history of the 2 countries that Ireland isn't going to be going cap in hand looking for the UK to be its saviour anytime soon.

RoI is somewhat dependent on the UK.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
I honestly don't know what A50 could have codified better to handle this situation. What do you think should change?

A negotiation framework where 27 face up against 1 is hardly ever going to work. (Maybe Germany is the only notable exception)

I think the way it should work is that the UK goes into a transition phase (however long), during which it is technically "out", but where practical arrangements on customs and people movement continue.

During this time the parties either agree on longer term relations, or re-entry on agreed terms at the end of the window.

If we were actually "out" during this transition window, it would neuter those trying to kill the process in parliament.

I don't think we should be a long term lukewarm member of the EU. The re-entry terms above would clarify where both parties actually saw the UK's role.

andrewf75

adindas wrote: »

It is not the best solution but if put it on the table it will make the other party to think.
.

Not just the other party, the entire world!