Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think it's unreasonable for the author of a legal document to assume that the parties acting upon the document are competent.
...

You can make assumptions, but you must also accept that those assumptions may prove invalid.

I think the exit process needed to cover all elements; withdrawal + trading + people; and build in a transition window which allowed continuation of business with a state technically out of the Union.

The Euro introduction had dual track running, so they obviously are aware of transition windows.

If the exit mechanics allow for the process to become a political power play, then it is unlikely that progress will be either smooth or satisfactory.

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

You can make assumptions, but you must also accept that those assumptions may prove invalid.

I think the exit process needed to cover all elements; withdrawal + trading + people; and build in a transition window which allowed continuation of business with a state technically out of the Union.

The Euro introduction had dual track running, so they obviously are aware of transition windows.

If the exit mechanics allow for the process to become a political power play, then it is unlikely that progress will be either smooth or satisfactory.

Agree with that. It’s the one thing I would criticise the EU for in their approach.

It would make sense to be discussing the future relationship now as well, athough thinking about it I’m not sure how it would help. The key problem remains the incompatibility of wanting out of the CU/SM and not wanting a border in Ireland.

If we were remaining a member until that was cleared up rather than leaving with a backstop, we’d be having to put up new MEPs and be part of the new budgets etc all of which neither side wants. At least dealing with exit first keeps things moving.

adindas

Short term impact of Brexit, UK will be worse off but so is the EU.

What about Long term impact ??

Well, there are countries which are well connected to the EU but not in the EU thrive better then the country within the EU. See, Canada, Japan, Australia and of course China, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, US.

Also before the creation of this political union. UK was doing well.

So almost certain UK will be better off outside the EU in the long term. Come back in this thread in about over ten years time and make your comments.

Concrete evidence is the UK case of joining the Euro. Even the hard remoaners, people in Scotland who always said a good thing about EU refuse to join the Euro They will shamefully admit the EU symbol of economy the so called EURO is not good for the UK. The thing will be the same or leaving the EU and see the impact in the long run.

Let alone do you want to keep allowing UK to be kept humiliated by a small country like Ireland ? Opportunistic countries like Spain and France ....

The best way to go is to leave even without the deal.

andrewf75

adindas wrote: »

Well, there are countries which are well connected to the EU but not in the EU thrive better then the country within the EU. See, Canada, Japan, Australia and of course US.

Also before the creation of this political union. UK was doing well.
.

But these countries are not in Europe as we are. So they don’t need the same level of access. Its ridiculous to point to countries on the other side of the world as evidence we don’t need the EU. If Australia or Canada was in Europe they’d be in the EU no doubt.

Are they thriving more than we are? On what basis? Japan has stagnated for decades. The UK has thrived in the last few decades. We were doing poorly before EU membership. Sick man of Europe wasn’t it?

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

...
Are they thriving more than we are? On what basis? Japan has stagnated for decades. The UK has thrived in the last few decades. We were doing poorly before EU membership. Sick man of Europe wasn’t it?

Is it useful to treat 40+ years of membership as a single measurable window?

I think the EU aligned better with us for the first part of our membership.

I definitely think the priority of the EU has shifted away from states like the UK in recent decades of it's existence.

A country like Germany, with a large rental market, seems better suited to large changes in people movement than us.

Maybe we had to realign our structures to match our newer EU neighbours.

I don't like Child Benefit...think it should be scrapped. I also prefer a health model more like Germany with different funding components.

Changes to both of these before mass migration would ease the cost implications of population growth.

Enterprise_1701C

Arklight wrote: »

How would the British act if Hayling Island was occupied by the Spanish? The Spanish actions are annoying and designed to appeal to their own version of red faced permanently enraged Daily Mail readers, but nothing else.

That's within the EU. Things may well change dramatically when we leave and the UK becomes a, relatively weak, international power trying to maintain possession of a part of Europe. In fact, I would say Gibraltar being British looks about as viable as Hong Kong being so.

The Gibraltar and Northern Ireland problems (which is what they are) are simply the consequences of having a colonial legacy with no remaining colonial clout.

But Gibraltar is not "occupied" by the British. It was ceded to Britain IN PERPETUITY under the Treaty of Utrecht, confirmed by thr Treaty of Versailles and the Treaty of Paris. It has been British for a greater period of time than it was Spanish for.

If Spain are so keen to take back Gibraltar, are they going to give Ceuta and Melilla to Morocco? It seems very strage that when Morocco became independant they refused to allow them those two enclaves, makes you wonder what they are hiding there

movilogo

If you look at the population cartography, 2 points are clearly visible.

[1] In future, economic growth will be in currently developing Asian countries.

[2] In EU, UK is not just 1 of 28 but more like 1 of 6 in terms of population & economy.

Other than Germany, France, UK & Italy, all other EU countries are way too small to be of much economic significance.

URL:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/population-cartogram.html

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

Is it useful to treat 40+ years of membership as a single measurable window?
.

No. Its not something I would personally have attempted! I was just responding to a post.

Filo25

adindas wrote: »

Not correct, see the history before the creation of the EU. Take example during the British empire, UK thrived much better and many countries in the EU. Also look at Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong China, India.

Joining the EU, UK is even get humiliated by a small country like Ireland. For that reason I think UK will need to put invading Ireland on the negation table.

In your live you do not want yourself to be humiliated. Let alone Why you want to let the country to be humiliated by a small country like Ireland ?

Please come back in this thread in about over ten year time and make your comments.

Oh good "let's invade Ireland" is back

PS You may be missing a few years, the empire had gone long before we joined the EEC, and its not coming back just because we leave either.

andrewf75

adindas wrote: »

Not correct, see the history before the creation of the EU. Take example during the British empire, UK thrived much better and many countries in the EU. Also look at Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong China, India.

Joining the EU, UK is even get humiliated by a small country like Ireland. For that reason I think UK will need to put invading Ireland on the negation table.

In your live you do not want yourself to be humiliated. Let alone Why you want to let the country to be humiliated by a small country like Ireland ?

Please come back in this thread in about over ten year time and make your comments.

Those damn Irish, humiliating us by refusing to be invaded!

After Brexit, lets take back India and America