Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

movilogo

Let's examine each scenario

#1 Brexit delayed by short period

Unlikely to change anything. Back to same situation in few months time.

#2 Brexit delayed indefinitely or cancelled

Millions of disgruntled leave voters. With both Labour and Tories seen as remain parties, a new party will form to cater leave voters. Net result further rise of right wing and populism.

#3 Second referendum

It will be close finish again.
If leave wins back to square one.
If remain wins, effectively same as #2.
More so it might lead to EU referendum every 5 years as some people will try to cash on public sentiment.

Whatever way Brexit is delayed/cancelled, there will be rise of right wing and populism. Brexit is a crack which won't heal but will become crevice.

In the meantime, capable EU workers (whom we need) will avoid UK whereas bad EU criminals/benefit scroungers (whom we don't want) will continue to milk the system until freedom of movement ceases to exist.

Indecision is worse than wrong decision. The uncertainty in last 3 years diverted our attention from all other issues while everyone is fighting on Brexit. If it is stretched longer it will be pyrrhic victory for either side.

Brexit Genie is out of the bottle which can't be put back.

SouthLondonUser

I'd ask you to quantify "bad EU criminals/benefit scroungers" but I have learnt not to ask Brexiters questions which require facts and data as answers.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

That few million includes the architect of A50 !

It's this process we are following.

How do I put this for the hard of thinking. If you really really want to avoid a default exit, DO NOT trigger A50 in the first place.

Hey, the vast majority voted to go ahead with A50 though. It's a bit stupid to be whingeing now.

(...or maybe voting for stuff they don't believe in is second nature now)

To be fair, the architect of A50 presumably didn't think anyone would trigger A50 without any idea what they wanted, and then spend 2 years arguing with themselves over what they wanted.


Any competent government would establish what they want, trigger A50 and then use the 2 year term to get the details sorted.

Thrugelmir

movilogo wrote: »

In the meantime, capable EU workers (whom we need) will avoid UK

Plenty of people have worked in the Middle East over the years. If the $ package is good enough. No concern over human rights or the treatment of other cultures. Why worry if longer term you've no intention of staying. Writing off the UK as a destination is foolish. After all many have no need to mix with the locals. Nor is the UK an unfriendly place to live and work. A means to an end for many.

BobQ

movilogo wrote: »

But this is a man made rule. Why the Single Market includes 4 freedoms and not 3 or 5 freedoms? Why this can't be negotiated or why does EU not want to negotiate on this?

Is it because big businesses wants rely on cheap labour supply?

Do remember that the UK signed up to these fundamental freedoms under a previous Tory regime.

If the boot was on the other foot, say Spain wanted to leave the EU and Uk was asked to allow them to remain in the free market but opt out of FoM and no hard border do you think we would agree?

Herzlos

Some people genuinely believe in British exceptionalism.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Plenty of people have worked in the Middle East over the years. If the $ package is good enough. No concern over human rights or the treatment of other cultures. Why worry if longer term you've no intention of staying. Writing off the UK as a destination is foolish. After all many have no need to mix with the locals. Nor is the UK an unfriendly place to live and work. A means to an end for many.

But the $ package for the UK has got significantly worse since Brexit. The only way to attack foreign talentnis to pay even more than we were previously to offset the drop in £.

Enterprise_1701C

Spain get plenty of special treatment. They get away with blockading the border with Gibraltar, supposedly within the eu, they get away with fishing above their quotas, they get away with trying to tell British boats that they are in Spanish waters when they are docked in Gibraltar, have not noticed any admonishments from the eu. And we are supposedly still within the eu, so all these could be classed as internal eu matters.

The eu would probably treat them quite differently if the above is anything to go by.

Moby

Tromking wrote: »

No of course not.
Sooner or later the politcal shenanigans that brought us to this point will be judged directly by the electorate and its going to be interesting to say the least to see the ramifications for individual MP's and the traditional parties.
The formation of a new centrist and unabashedly pro-EU party could be a stroke of genius in the aftermath of this shambles it has to be said, politically its no doubt where a lot of remain voters are.
As for us potentially politically jilted Leave voters, the picture is less clear. Could I and others vote for a Labour or Tory party that is still ambiguous on EU membership. No.
Could I personally vote for a UKip type entity, certainly not.
I'm not sure 17M hacked off Leave voters, is going to be a good thing for our democracy going forward.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1100155887501619201
You can see May's strategy to force the brexiteers into accepting her deal or no brexit?

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

To be fair, the architect of A50 presumably didn't think anyone would trigger A50 without any idea what they wanted, and then spend 2 years arguing with themselves over what they wanted.
...

That illustrates a half baked process which has been designed IMO.

The architect could not predict all the different circumstances on which a state found themselves leaving.

It's simply no excuse to assume things about the nature of the break up.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

That illustrates a half baked process which has been designed IMO.

The architect could not predict all the different circumstances on which a state found themselves leaving.

It's simply no excuse to assume things about the nature of the break up.

I don't think it's unreasonable for the author of a legal document to assume that the parties acting upon the document are competent.


If you need to add a clause for "the party triggering A50 being incompetent" or "timing out due to infighting" then you'd need to add clauses for literally anything else that might happen and result in something incomprehensible.


The flow was painfully simple - decide to leave, have an idea of what to do, invoke A50, negotiate leaving. Unfortunately we missed step 2 and now 2 years have passed and we still don't know what we want to do. How can that be the EU's fault, or the architect of A50?


May triggered A50 far too early, as some sort of botched power play.