If there is a second referendum ...

Arklight

Matt_L wrote: »

But it is quite possible to leave, we have it set in law that on the 29th of March we will leave, with or without a deal. To say it is, "impossible" is a little silly.....

Why do you persist on saying we will lose our biggest trading partner, do you, hand on heart believe that even if we leave with no deal all trading will stop?

It's also worth remembering that 44% of all UK exports in 2017 went to the European Union on free trade terms, as part of the single market. That's down from 55% in 2006 but the EU is still by far the largest UK export market.

"Clearly this is not going to be a situation where all trade stops and there is collapse in terms of the economy as a whole," said the WTO's director general, Roberto Azevedo, when he was asked in a BBC interview last year about the potential effect of a hard Brexit on the UK and European economies.

"But it's not going to be a walk in the park. It's not like nothing will happen. There will be an impact. The tendency is that prices will go up of course, [because] you have to absorb the cost of that disruption."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

Prices will go up. The economy will slow down. People will be able to afford less, then they will have less money to buy it with.

There's no reputable expert analysis that predicts anything other than this.

Why do you want people in the UK to become poorer?

BobQ

Arklight wrote: »

Labour doesn't even want a second referendum. Corbyn's strategy is to allow Brexit through then pick up the pieces at the next general election.

As a strategy it isn't a bad one. He doesn't want to stay in the EU, the Tories are imploding and unless a miracle occurs they will make such a catastrophe of the next 12 months as to make themselves as unelectable as Labour were in the 80s.

Pretty much anything Labour does will be an improvement, The EU are likely to offer a sunshine policy to a reasonable Labour government as they certainly won't want to see the Tories back in power in their near abroad.

It's something that possibly even the Parliamentary Labour Party won't be able to sabotage as well. Although they will have a good try.

This may be the Corbyn strategy but if Brexit goes ahead in either of the present forms my bet is that May will be gone by the party conference. As the consequences unfold, she may be forced out sooner. But with Brexit a fait accompli, the Tories will unite behind a new leader and Corbyn willbe seen for the paper tiger he is and lead his party to defeat. The Tories will not make the mistakes of 2017 again.

BobQ

BLB53 wrote: »

The MPs will be voting on this in the next couple of weeks so if, as expected, it's voted down that would just leave 'no deal' so no need for the second referendum.

The only "need" would arise from a parliamentary majority supporting one.

BobQ

Matt_L wrote: »

But it is quite possible to leave, we have it set in law that on the 29th of March we will leave, with or without a deal. To say it is, "impossible" is a little silly.....

Why do you persist on saying we will lose our biggest trading partner, do you, hand on heart believe that even if we leave with no deal all trading will stop?

Of course it is not impossible, but neither is committing suicide.

Of course will continue but our imports will be more expensive, our standard of living will decline and jobs will be lost. But never mind we can demonstrate to the rest of the world how stupid we can be. I see Brexit as a bit like those who stand on Beachy Head (or similar), strap on contraptions that resemble wings and jump off the cliff convinced that they will soar like an eagle.

BobQ

Arklight wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

Prices will go up. The economy will slow down. People will be able to afford less, then they will have less money to buy it with.

There's no reputable expert analysis that predicts anything other than this.

Why do you want people in the UK to become poorer?

Matt L and others who support a no deal Brexit have never really addressed the impact of adopting WTO terms

One of the other issues is that while it might suit UK and the EU to levy a lower % tariff between them compared to other nations, without a trade deal they cannot do this even if they want to do so. The terms imposed must be the same for all nations.

MobileSaver

Matt_L wrote: »

Its not democracy when you wish to ignore a vote because you didn't like the result.

No-one is ignoring the vote; the government is working on actioning the result but as we now all know it is not proving quite as simple and easy as the Brexiteers told us it would be.

Matt_L wrote: »

Thats just a bad loser who is anti democratic....

LOL. Please explain how another referendum asking the people what they want to do now is anti-democratic.

The first vote was two and a half years ago and the realities of the negative effects of Brexit are becoming more apparent by the day. The only reason so many here are against another referendum is that they're scared of what the result might be.

HHarry

MobileSaver wrote: »

The first vote was two and a half years ago and the realities of the negative effects of Brexit are becoming more apparent by the day. The only reason so many here are against another referendum is that they're scared of what the result might be.

The result might change - but I don't think it'll be a landslide Remain. Imagine it's a similar percentage split as last time - that's still going to leave nearly half the country disappointed, and just going to extend the division.
And are we then going to have another vote in 2.5 years based on the new information we'll have at that point?

Or the result may be repeated - after all Leave weren't expected to win last time. What then - more voting to get the 'right' vote?

I would suggest that the reasons for choosing Leave in the first place haven't changed. The difficulties in resolving the Irish border are unlikely to convince a change in vote. And the predictions of a financial collapse are just that - predictions. The only thing we can know about Brexit is that life will be different - you'll never know how unless it's done.

lisyloo

BLB53 wrote: »

The MPs will be voting on this in the next couple of weeks so if, as expected, it's voted down that would just leave 'no deal' so no need for the second referendum.

Why do you think withdrawing artilcle 50 is off the table?

Liam Fox now saying leaving 50/50 if deal rejected.

Ps - can I just say it’s nice to debate politely with someone of different views and a refreshing change.

MobileSaver

HHarry wrote: »

And are we then going to have another vote in 2.5 years based on the new information we'll have at that point?

If sufficient people care enough in another 2.5 years then absolutely yes have another referendum.

HHarry wrote: »

What then - more voting to get the 'right' vote?

There's no "right" result, just what the majority of people want at any given time - it's called democracy. That's why in the past we have had a Labour government for 13 years but then the majority of people decided to have a Conservative government instead, people changed their mind based on new information and experiences.

HHarry wrote: »

And the predictions of a financial collapse are just that - predictions.

Only the extremists are predicting financial collapse but pretty much everyone accepts we will be financially worse off if/when we leave the EU.

lisyloo

Just reading 2018 obituaries

"My generation of Africans has learned the hard way that no state can truly be called democratic if it offers its people no escape from poverty, and that no country can truly develop so long as its people are excluded from power."

- Kofi Annan