If there is a second referendum ...

kabayiri

My central problem with another referendum / or not is one of trust.

I prefer to think longer term than the usual way Brexit is framed on the radio stations.

If we had a Remain option, it would be sold as a status quo I suspect, and I simply do not believe this would be the case.

Our reputation within the EU has been damaged now. It will not go back to the pre-2016 days. We will see the rebate diminish in due course, and it will be hard to resist any group dynamic towards further centralization of power.

Now...some people may actually want that, the true EUphiles amongst us. So why not offer a fully Remain option on the ballot paper? One with a commitment to the Euro/Shengen and full integration. I might not like the idea but I concede it is honest and valid as a possible outcome.

badmemory

She's only there to carry the can when whatever they condescend to agree on goes pear-shaped. Then she will be out on her ear - has there been any serious challenge to her leadership, despite all the mutterings. As soon as the likes of Boris look like they may land up having to put their money where their mouth is they retreat into a "we are loyal to our leader" stance.


Either way, she will be alright. It's hardly going to bother her that food prices have gone up again over 10%. Just one less new outfit a month if that. She won't actually be out of work (unlike many others) until the next general election & then she will get a nice pension anyway.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

My central problem with another referendum / or not is one of trust.

I prefer to think longer term than the usual way Brexit is framed on the radio stations.

If we had a Remain option, it would be sold as a status quo I suspect, and I simply do not believe this would be the case.

Our reputation within the EU has been damaged now. It will not go back to the pre-2016 days. We will see the rebate diminish in due course, and it will be hard to resist any group dynamic towards further centralization of power.

Now...some people may actually want that, the true EUphiles amongst us. So why not offer a fully Remain option on the ballot paper? One with a commitment to the Euro/Shengen and full integration. I might not like the idea but I concede it is honest and valid as a possible outcome.

It isn't "honest" in any way shape or form unless it is something that the UK actually wants as an outcome.

If we end up not leaving the EU in the first place (as opposed to leaving and rejoining) we would be staying in on the basis of our current deal.

I love how many leavers talk about "project Fear" and then proceed to make up these various scenarios of what we will be forced to do if we stay in the EU with pretty much nothing to back them up.

If we end up democratically deciding to stay in the EU we can always decide to leave again in future if we suddenly find that Turkey has joined the EU / We are forced to join the Euro/ the EU Army is revealed to be planning to invade the UK and steal all of our jam.

The EU as it stands now is what we have and what we would have to vote on, yes there are arch federalists who would like much closer integration and there are also those who oppose that viewpoint, just as there has been for a fair while now, it doesn't mean any of those things are going to happen, or that they would be forced on us against the will of our government,

The UK is hardly alone in not wanting to have increased sharing of sovereignty with the EU.

Matt_L

MobileSaver wrote: »

That's a ludicrous standpoint and is simply not true either legally or democratically. There is no time limit on when we can next have a referendum.

Brexit may get extended if all other EU members agree. Like many things in politics it may get extended again and again; your view seems to be that even if the extension goes on for years the British public can never again be asked what they want to happen until we have actually left - clearly a ridiculous stance that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.



It would obviously be completely undemocratic to ignore the views of 14 million people who voted remain but I totally understand why Leavers are so terrified of another vote where Remain is an option.



It goes without saying that all the Leave options would be aggregated and the only people coming out with the scaremongering assumption above are those who are desperate for a second referendum not to happen...

Fact is we are leaving on the 29th of March but yes the final deal may take another 2-4 years to complete but we would have long left by then. This would mean that if we were to have another referendum on the deal the options would be, Rejoined, Accept A Deal or No Deal.

You suggest that it would be undemocratic to ignore the 14 million remain votes but seem more than happy to ignore the 17.4 million votes. You call what im saying ludicrous, well I bow to your superior knowledge on such matters however when people like the PM, Leader of the Opposition and Attorney General, just to name a few, agree with my point then please don't be offended when I ignore your view....

The commission on referendums themselves stated that there are no grounds for another referendum, they say that it should have been made clear before the first referendum that there could possibly be a second...

As for being scared of a second referendum, no fear here, it just aint going to happen:beer:

MobileSaver

Matt_L wrote: »

As for being scared of a second referendum, no fear here,

I find it quite amusing how all the people who claim not to be scared of a second referendum seem to be spending an awful lot of time and effort arguing why there shouldn't be one.

Arklight

BobQ wrote: »

Who knows. My view is they voted to initiate Article 50 because they never expected it would end up with an outcome like the options now available. But nobody really knows.
s
While many Tories are blaming Corbyn for for the preset impasse, that is not the problem. The problem remains a divided Tory Party. But a second referendum will only happen if the Tories cannot unite in enough numbers to carry a parliamentary majority.

Labour doesn't even want a second referendum. Corbyn's strategy is to allow Brexit through then pick up the pieces at the next general election.

As a strategy it isn't a bad one. He doesn't want to stay in the EU, the Tories are imploding and unless a miracle occurs they will make such a catastrophe of the next 12 months as to make themselves as unelectable as Labour were in the 80s.

Pretty much anything Labour does will be an improvement, The EU are likely to offer a sunshine policy to a reasonable Labour government as they certainly won't want to see the Tories back in power in their near abroad.

It's something that possibly even the Parliamentary Labour Party won't be able to sabotage as well. Although they will have a good try.

Herzlos

Guerillatoker wrote: »

I don't see any justification for having any Leave options except "Mays Deal" or "No Deal"

If we put, say, "Norway-style Deal" on the ballot and it won, what would we do when the EU refused to play ball?

I don't think they could have an option for anything that isn't already on the table or couldn't be negotiated very quickly. So hard, May, Remain.

BLB53

I don't see any justification for having any Leave options except "Mays Deal" or "No Deal"

The MPs will be voting on this in the next couple of weeks so if, as expected, it's voted down that would just leave 'no deal' so no need for the second referendum.

Guerillatoker

MobileSaver wrote: »

I find it quite amusing how all the people who claim not to be scared of a second referendum seem to be spending an awful lot of time and effort arguing why there shouldn't be one.

It doesn't really matter; there won't be another referendum whilst May is in power.

I'd bet on it.

Enterprise_1701C

MobileSaver wrote: »

I find it quite amusing how all the people who claim not to be scared of a second referendum seem to be spending an awful lot of time and effort arguing why there shouldn't be one.

So, if we had voted to remain, the the eu had turned around and said "oh, by the way we are having an eu army and the British army will make up 50% of it, and we are going to QM voting so no vetoes will count and, as you have now comitted to being in the eu you will be expected to join Schengen and the euro" you would be happy for there to be a second vote? Or would you be shouting that we have had our one referendum and that it should be enacted?

We joined the common market way back when, we are leaving a protectionist political union that wishes to control all parts of everyday life. It wants to become a nation rather than a union of nations. Can you imagine forcing countries into the euro, it has destroyed quite a few that joined willingly, and i suspect that was the intention in order to further tie those countries to the eu.